Soccer in the summer? In a non-World Cup year? Oh, yes, soccer fans. You don’t have to meddle with Major League Soccer until August. Not with a movable feast of international tournaments keeping you company into July.
On one end of the Atlantic Ocean, the UEFA European Championships have just begun, featuring 24 of that continent’s best countries. All your usual suspects are involved: England, Germany, Italy, Spain, France, the Netherlands and Portugal, along with your anything-but-usual interlopers. Yes, we’re talking about you, Georgia, Slovenia and Albania.
But as entertaining as that always is; and the Euros are regularly one of the most entertaining soccer events in the world, it behooves you to pay attention to the happenings on this side of the Atlantic, where the United States-hosted Copa America tournament began today, June 20, with tournament favorite Argentina taking on Canada.
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The Copa America is to North and South America what the Euros are to Europe: the premier international event and bestower of bragging rights as to who is the best country in the Western Hemisphere. Like the Euros, the Copa America is divided into four-team pools (four for the Copa America, six for the Euros). After round-robin play, the top two teams from each pool advance to a knockout stage until a champion is crowned on July 14.
And all of the usual suspects are present here as well: the aforementioned defending champion and favorite Argentines, along with South American powers Brazil, Uruguay and Colombia, among the 10 South American teams in the field. They’re joined by six North American squads, paced by the United States, Mexico and Canada, along with smaller fry Costa Rica, Jamaica and Panama.
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How to Bet the Copa America
There are numerous wagering avenues to take here. Of course, you can wager on the overall winner, where—again—Argentina is the favorite at +175. Brazil is next at +225, with Uruguay at +500. The U.S. is at +1,400.
But lines are set for individual games, along with prop bets at several books that take you into goal-scorers, fouls for individual players, shots and other soccer statistical esoterica. And there’s a lively market as always for who will be the Copa America’s top scorer.
What to Bet in the Copa America
Have it Uruguay
Yes, Argentina is the team to beat, both by the numbers and by the Lionel Messi Factor. The iconic captain and national talisman may be on the cusp of his 37th birthday, but he’s showing little signs of slowing down. Argentina has won 12 of its last 13 international games and nobody in this province will be surprised if they defend their Copa America title. Still, as good as Argentina is—and make no mistake, they are very good, very complete and very difficult to break down—we’re going value-hunting in a different direction.
That direction is east of Argentina: Uruguay.
Remember when we said Argentina is 12-1 in its last 13 games? Guess who the ‘1’ was? Under former Leeds United coach Marcelo Bielsa, Uruguay has enjoyed one of the quickest ascents into the international elite of any country. La Celeste is strong up the middle, with defenders Jose Gimenez (Atletico Madrid), Ronald Araujo (Barcelona) and Mathias Olivera (Napoli), midfielders Manuel Ugarte (PSG), Federico Valverde (Real Madrid), Nicolas de la Cruz (Flamengo) and Rodrigo Betancour (Tottenham Hotspur), and forwards Darwin Nunez (Liverpool) and Luis Suarez coming off the bench.
With Bielsa infusing Uruguay with his mix of tactical skill and discipline—along with faster more athletic players—the tiny country’s squad is brimming with confidence. That fast, athletic, versatile style; they can press and counter seamlessly, send them here on the heels of a 4-0 pasting of Mexico.
They should win Pool C (where the U.S. should finish second) and take on the Pool D runner-up (likely either Brazil or Colombia) July 6 in Las Vegas. A win there sends them into the semis against likely either Brazil or Columbia, which means they wouldn’t see Argentina until the finals.
Best Bet: Uruguay to win Copa America (+500 at BetMGM)
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Your Top Scorer—And It Isn’t Messi
Betting Messi to be top scorer (-125) is the ultimate chalk walk, which is why we’re introducing you to Luis Diaz of Colombia. You should meet Diaz by finding his goal against Brazil on YouTube, which is one of the most ridiculous goals you will ever see.
We’ll introduce you further to the Liverpool winger by pointing out that during World Cup qualifying, he’s a more prolific shooter than anyone else in this tournament: Messi, Brazil’s Vinicius Jr. or Rodrygo or Uruguay’s Nunez. Diaz averages 4.4 shots per 90 minutes, meaning when the ball’s at his feet inside of 25 yards, it’s likely heading on frame.
Diaz thrives in Colombia’s transition-based offense, which constantly presses to win possession. Ask the U.S. about that. The Americans got a first-hand glimpse of this in a 5-1 pre-tournament beatdown. Now, add that Diaz plays in a pool with a horrible defensive team in Costa Rica, that he could play five games if Colombia reaches the semis and that he’s one of the team’s primary penalty-kick takers and that would be enough motivation there.
But wait—there’s more. You get all that at 35-1. This may be the biggest value bet in the entire tournament.
Best Bet: Luis Diaz as top goal scorer (35-1 at Caesars Sportsbook)