Top Three Picks for this Week’s CFB Bowl Games

Our multi-part Bowl Season Betting Preview continues with three bowl games that feature teams in various states of disarray—perfect for the value-meets-opportunity style we crave.

Yes, we had the first round of the College Football Playoff, which features all the home teams feasting on the hopes and carcasses of the last four in, who you know as Indiana, Clemson, SMU and Tennessee. Notre Dame, Texas, Penn State, and Ohio State handled them, respectively, by an average of 19.25 points.

We’ll dive further into the CFP bowl games next week. In this week’s bowl preview, we’ve got three games that feature teams in various states of chaos, thanks to opt-outs and the transfer portal. This offers the opportunity to thrive on the havoc, which is too good to pass up.

A Naval Assault Sinks Boomer Sooner

We ask ourselves this nearly every year: What does the Armed Forces Bowl mean to a team that sends its alumni to, well, the Armed Forces? Especially an Armed Force like this edition of the Navy Midshipmen, who have plenty to play for—compared to their opponents—a 6-6 Oklahoma team that is, frankly, a hot mess.

More on that in a moment. But first, let’s go where the motivation is. A victory gives Navy its first 10-win season since 2019, when it went 11-2. It also gives the Midshipmen a victory over an SEC team—two weeks after they took apart Army in the Army-Navy Game. Think that doesn’t resonate around Annapolis?

What else resonates? A pass defense that is in the top-50 in most categories and a QB in Blake Horvath that isn’t your typical triple-option QB. Yes, he can run. Yes, he can pass. But there is a there there in Horvath, a leadership presence that picks his team up the moment he steps on the field.

Oklahoma, meanwhile, is spinning, and not just because 25 players who were on the roster for the Sooners’ regular-season finale against LSU hit the transfer portal, including starting QB Jackson Arnold, who migrated to Auburn. The Sooners are also without All-American LB Danny Stutsman and safety Billy Bowman, who opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft, and injured RB Jovantae Barnes.

That leaves offensive matters in the hands of QB Michael Hawkins Jr. a good dual-threat who is better with his legs than his arm. In case you’re wondering, Hawkins takes over an Oklahoma offense that is 120th in yards per game (322.8), 126th in yards per play (4.8) and 122nd in passing yards per game (167.6). And that was with Arnold, et-al.

Make no mistake. Oklahoma’s second stringers have more talent that any of the Midshipmen starters. And it wouldn’t surprise anyone for the Sooners to pull this one out somehow. But again, who do you think cares more about a December 27 bowl game: a mediocre SEC team that won its “bowl game” by beating Alabama, November 23? Or a service academy that covered in eight of its last 11 games playing in the Armed Forces Bowl?

Best Bet: Navy +3.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

“Cuse” the Orangemen Are Here

Perhaps you stopped paying attention to Syracuse on September 20, when it somehow lost to a horrible Stanford team by two points at home—as nine-point favorites. Or perhaps you gave up on the Orangemen when they were poleaxed by Pitt, 41-13, a month later.

Silly, silly you. Because while you were paying attention elsewhere, Syracuse was quietly going 4-1 on the run-in, capping that surge with a 42-38 victory over a strong Miami team that put the bow on a 9-3 regular season, a No. 21 ranking and this Holiday Bowl date with Washington State.

And speaking of Washington State, it’s remarkable we’re seeing the Cougars here, because they’re a bigger mess than Oklahoma. Perhaps they should play the Sooners, because—even with all of the defections—that would be a more interesting game than this one.

If nothing else, that would be one heck of a storyline. Washington State is not only missing standout QB John Mateer, but also offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle. Both left for, wait for it—Oklahoma. WSU head coach Jake Dickert left for Wake Forest and we’re not quite sure who’s left to coach the Cougars.

Whoever it is must cope with missing 11 starters who entered the portal, including WR Kris Hutson (Arizona) and RB Wayshawn Parker (Utah).

Did we mention that Mateer (3,139 yards, 29 TDs) won’t suit up for WSU? Or that Syracuse QB Kyle McCord (4,326 yards, 29 TDs) will suit up for the Orangemen? We could pile on further by mentioning that along with Miami, Syracuse has beaten Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and a good UNLV team. But we suggest piling on before this line creeps up further.

Best Bet: Syracuse -16 (-110 at BetMGM)

 

Shorting USC Again? Yes, Please

Savvy readers of the Gridiron Guru remember what happened the last time we shorted USC in a bowl game. And lookie here! It happened to be last year’s Holiday Bowl, when QB Miller Moss was making his first start in place of Caleb Williams, who opted out. Moss threw for six TDs, leading the Trojans to a 42-28 upset of Louisville.

Well, after getting benched in November, Moss is now at Louisville. Jayden Maiava is now at the helm of what remains of the USC offense (more on that, momentarily). The upshot is, it’s once again safe to short the Trojans.

Why? Well, Maiava is 3-for-3—in throwing pick-sixes. He’s thrown three, including two against Notre Dame, along with fumbling twice. That suspect decision-making gets worse with the loss of a chunk of his primary weapons. WRs Zachariah Branch, Kyron Hudson, and Duce Robinson all entered the portal, as did RB Quinten Joyner. That’s 120 receptions, 1,450 yards, and 10 TDs that walked out the door.

We’ve brought this up before. Lincoln Riley has the reputation of being a regular-season force, but he’s 14-11 the last two years at USC—including blowing five games in the fourth quarter this year. And he’s 2-7 in bowl games.

Neither is conducive to soothing the cranky psyches of entitled USC fans, who have chased off coaches with better records (see “Helton, Clay”). Judging by the portal activity, nor is it apparently conducive to building a sustainable winning culture in California’s dominant college football program.

Texas A&M is a miserable 3-9 ATS this year and the Aggies wasted a 7-1 start by going 1-3 down the stretch. But they have more going for them on both sides of the ball. That makes the Over-51.5 as juicy as betting the Aggies.

Best Bet: Texas A&M -3.5 or Over-51.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

 


 

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History Playbook

On This Day In Sports History

February 5, 2012 — The Giants rally past the Patriots 21-17 in Super Bowl XLVI. It's a rematch of Super Bowl XLII four years earlier where the Giants upset the Patriots 14-10, ending New England's hopes for a perfect 19-0 season. In 2012, trailing 17-15, New York has the ball on their own 12-yard line with 3:46 remaining. Eli Manning connects with Mario Manningham for a 38-yard completion. The Giants advance to the New England six-yard line where Ahmad Bradshaw scores with 57 seconds left.

On This Day In Sports History

February 3, 2002 — The Patriots win the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history by beating the heavily favored St. Louis Rams 20-17. The New England quarterback is second year pro Tom Brady. The Patriots win on a 48-yard field goal by Adam Vinatieri as time expires.​