Ah, Rivalry Week. That week where teams let the hate flow and bettors learn to hate everything from wager-spoiling, back-door covers to bad beats that should come with their own child-proof locks. Or a rating system.
It’s often the hardest week of the season to handicap because when you play your blood rival, things have a tendency to not make sense from a handicapping standpoint. Teams that have no business staying with a perceived superior rival—and yes, we’re talking about you, 21-point underdog to Ohio State, Michigan—often find a way to do just that.
Yet, even though only two games feature ranked team vs. ranked team, the Gridiron Guru found three games that offer our goals of value meeting opportunity.
Last week: 2-1. Season: 10-17 ATS.
The Only ‘Conquest’ Here Comes From the Band
It’s not often that you find USC catching a touchdown-plus at home vs., well, anyone. Especially since the Trojans—even as mediocre and unwatchable in the fourth quarter as they were in many of their games this year—are 4-1 SU at home, with only an overtime loss to Penn State spoiling the parade.
But it’s also not often you find Notre Dame that much superior to the Trojans, well, anywhere. Since somehow losing to Northern Illinois as 28-point favorites nearly three months ago, the Irish are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS. And they’ve covered three 20-plus-point spreads along the way. Take this trend further and you find the Irish have covered in 10 of their last 12 games, producing a 58 percent ROI.
Where the numbers really skew Notre Dame’s way is the fact this game is at the L.A. Coliseum, because you’ll find fewer better road warriors than this iteration of the Domers. Notre Dame is 12-4 SU and ATS in its last 16 away games.
Those figures alone would sell us on the Irish. Now, let’s throw in a Notre Dame ground attack that is third in the country in yards-per-rush (6.3) and 11th in rushing yards per game (221.8). While we’re at it, we’ll turn loose Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love, who ran for 100+ yards in three of the last four weeks against a USC rushing defense that scares absolutely no one. Love is averaging nearly 9 yards a carry in November and 7.0 for the season to go with 14 TDs.
Now, we’ll pile on the fact Notre Dame can lock up a College Football Playoff spot with a win and we have all we need here.
Best Bet: Notre Dame -7.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Finding Revenge in the Desert
Remember the Arizona team that rolled up 61 points against New Mexico. The one where Arizona WR Tetairoa McMillian became an instant Heisman contender with 10 catches for 304 yards and four TDs? Where QB Noah Fifita threw for 422 yards and those four TDs
Yeah, that team hasn’t been seen since.
Instead, it’s been replaced by a . Not only is Arizona bad, but the Wildcats aren’t even making it interesting. They’ve failed to cover in six of their last seven and are 2-8 ATS in their last 10. Fifita, meanwhile, has thrown for 2,832 yards and 17 TDs. But he has 12 INTs to go with it.
Going the other way is an Arizona State team that needs this game to clinch a berth in the Big 12 title game. The Sun Devils have only two turnovers in their last four games—all victories SU and ATS and they are 9-2 both SU and ATS this season. Arizona State protects the football (less than a turnover per game), averages 30.5 points per game and gets to face a Wildcats’ defense ranked in the 90s nationally in most statistical categories.
Now, let’s add the revenge factor. Respected football numbers analyst Steve Makinen wrote that current won-loss records are an excellent indicator of revenge chances and brought receipts with him. According to Makinen teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins than their opponent are 101-19 SU and 77-38-5 ATS since 2016. Considering the Wildcats dismantled Arizona State 59-23 last year and won 38-35 in 2022, we’d say the Revenge Factor is alive and well.
Best Bet: Arizona State -9 (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Revenge Travels Well
Speaking of the revenge factor, say hello to Illinois. More accurately, we say Hello to the Fighting Illini’s long memory of what happened last year. Northwestern’s 45-43 victory not only snapped Illinois’ two-game winning streak in this series, but kept the Illini out of a bowl game.
We’re not expecting a repeat this year. Illinois is enjoying a renaissance of sorts under Bret Bielema, racking up an 8-3 record that has it ranked 23rd and firmly entrenched among the upper tier of the Big Ten. That’s not where the Illini were expected to finish when the curtain was lifted on the 2024 season.
Included in that basket of surprises was a victory over Michigan and a solid effort against Penn State where the Illini lost only 21-7 as 19-point underdogs. Illinois comes into this rivalry game with a heater of momentum: victories and covers in its last two games.
Northwestern comes in with none of the above. The Wildcats were poleaxed, 50-6, by Michigan last week, are 1-4 in their last five games SU and 2-3 ATS, part and parcel of a 3-7 SU and ATS record this year. Northwestern’s only Big Ten wins came at Purdue and at Maryland; the Wildcats are winless at home in conference play and own only a victory over overmatched Eastern Illinois at home this season.
This, along with averaging a woeful 270.1 yards per game (132nd in the nation), is how you go from rivalry rulers to rivalry ruin. And again, there’s Makinen’s revenge factor coming into play here as well.
Best Bet: Illinois -7.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
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