It is at once one of the most spectacular and strategic golf courses on the planet and one of the most treacherously difficult. Even as players nimbly and carefully plot their way around Shinnecock Hills Golf Club, site of this week’s U.S. Open, care and discretion are not always enough to avoid trouble.
When 156 of the world’s best tee off Thursday at the uber-exclusive Hamptons club on the south edge of Long Island, they will face not only the links-style beauty of Shinnecock but the beast. And they’ll do so with a heavy dose of history riding shotgun—in more ways than one.
Shinnecock Hills has played host to U.S. Opens five previous times over three centuries: 1896, 1986, 1995, 2004 and 2018. And each time, the course has tested, tormented, and teased the world’s best players into submission. Retief Goosen’s 4-under-par winning score in 2004 set the standard for the lowest winning scores at Shinnecock. Ray Floyd’s 1-under in 1986 was the only other under-par winning score.
In 1995, Corey Pavin’s memorable 4-wood approach on the 18th hole gave him his only major victory at even-par. That was one shot better than Brooks Koepka’s winning score in 2018.
Course Correction
Speaking of Koepka and Goosen, both conquered not only their counterparts and the inherent difficulty of winning the national Open, but did so under conditions that made the course as much of the story as the outcome. That’s because the USGA simply lost control of the course, and it became even too difficult by its par-protecting, obsessive standards.
That’s because Shinnecock’s design contains a genius that even eluded the USGA’s understanding of how to protect par without turning the course into your local putt-putt. Tournament organizers set pin placements on greens that were simply unplayable. In 2004’s final round, 28 players failed to break 80, and the average score was 78.7. Things got so ridiculous that the USGA had to water greens between groups, and in 2018, Phil Mickelson showed his displeasure by swatting his moving ball on the 13th green, taking a two-shot penalty for his protest.
This year, the USGA has dialed back its diabolical tendencies, finally displaying an understanding that William Flynn’s original design and the prevailing southwest winds that swirl around and often make players cope with different conditions on the same hole are sufficient defenses.
With that, what should we look for in a potential Shinnecock champion?
Second Chances
Shinnecock is a second-shot course, meaning you want players on your tickets who can park their approaches in areas that give them the best chance to two-putt. You don’t attack Shinnecock as much as you nimbly pick your way around. Three-putt avoidance, Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Around the Green, and Bogey avoidance are key categories.
While making our customary acknowledgment, No. 1-ranked Scottie Scheffler is your tournament favorite (+550 at BetMGM) to complete his career grand slam, he hasn’t won since January’s American Express. He does have six top-5s and two runners-up, along with finishing second at the Masters and T14 at the PGA. Most notably, he has four top-10s in his last five U.S. Opens. Yes, Scheffler could win here and not raise eyebrows, but there’s more value elsewhere.
Here are three bets that offer the value Scheffler lacks.
Tommy Fleetwood to Win (+2000 at BetMGM)
Yes, we’re going with the proverbial major trap pick here. Every year, Fleetwood ends up as a major sleeper pick—and every year, he puts your tickets to sleep by falling short. To that, we retort with the number “63.”
That’s what Fleetwood shot in the final round of the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock. We illustrated above in 3D living color how hard this course is. Yes, Fleetwood’s recent U.S. Open history is all over the place; he has two top-20s and three missed cuts in his last seven U.S. Opens since that runner-up finish to Koepka.
But Fleetwood comes in strong; he has three top-11 finishes in his last four starts, and his excellence in driving accuracy (sixth) and familiarity with links courses make this less of a trap than it usually is. If you want to go a bit more conservatively, you can get him to finish top-5 at +400.
Patrick Reed to Win (+4000 at BetMGM)
You’re going to want in on this one sooner rather than later, and you’re going to want numerous pieces of Reed on your tickets, because even though you haven’t heard much from the LIV expat, what you have heard makes him ideal this week.
First, Reed enjoyed his best U.S. Open finish at Shinnecock: a solo fourth in 2018. Second, he has three consecutive top-12 finishes in majors. Third, he has played in seven non-LIV tournaments in the last six months. His record in those events? Two wins, a second, and 12th or better in six of the seven.
That’s Reed’s form. His function is a short-game wizardry essential for Shinnecock success. He’s 11th in StrokesGained: Tee-to-Green, 12th in True Strokes Gained over the past six months, and in 2018, he gained 1.53 strokes per round on the field. He’s +700 to finish top-5 and +350 for a top-10. Bet him across the board.
Chris Gotterup to Win (+4500 at BetMGM)
Here’s another under-the-radar pick you want various pieces of on your tickets, if only for geography purposes. Gotterup grew up in New Jersey and is familiar with the Northeast courses and all their quirks. Yes, the knockdown shot is part and parcel of the 26-year-old’s considerable arsenal.
So is a form that brought him two victories this year, four top-10s, and no finish worse than T27 since the beginning of May. You get all of Gotterup along with his No. 9 ranking in Strokes Gained: Total and a respectable 37th in Strokes Gained: Putting. And here’s where we mention he picked up 32.3 strokes on the field in his last four majors.
Like Reed, grab him at +700 for a top-5 and +350 for a top-10.
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