The Premier League is full of surprises this year, with perennial champion Manchester City struggling and perennial mid-table occupant Bournemouth surging. We’ve noticed both trends, which guide two of our Premier League picks this week.
This is one of those weeks where the matchups, the form, and the stats write themselves. Struggling teams play in-form teams. Defensive atrocities play offensive juggernauts. And the schedule even plays a deeper role in one team’s chances, due to Champions League obligations against one of its biggest continental rivals.
We’ve said this before. One of the beauties to betting soccer is the bulging buffet table of bets at your disposal. And we’re helping ourselves to liberal portions this week.
Follow the Books Here
So it’s goals you want? With these two, it’s goals you shall have.
Take a look at Southampton in the Premier League table. Take your time as you scroll down to the very bottom, which is where you find the Saints and their miserable minus-36 goal differential. That’s not only the worst in the Premier League by eight goals (Leicester City is next at minus-28), but the result of an eye-watering 54 goals allowed. Southampton has pulled 30 balls out of its own net—at home.
Now, scroll back up the table. Ah, there’s Bournemouth, owned by Bill Foley, who also owns the NHL Vegas Golden Knights, resting comfortably in seventh place, only one point out of European football. No, your eyes do not deceive you; the Cherries are only one point behind four-time defending champion Manchester City. This is the byproduct of a renaissance on the other end of the South Coast, where Bournemouth put home 41 goals, including 24 on the road. That’s tied for third-most in the Premier League, behind Liverpool (32) and Chelsea (25).
So you’re saying take the Cherries? Actually, no. We’re listening to the books, which are telling us to play Over-3 goals. Southampton’s team total is 0.5, but you’re laying -225 taking the Over there. Bournemouth’s team total is 2.5. Take the under and you’re laying -184.
Listen to the books here. They’re telling you Bournemouth will win 2-1. We think it will be more than that.
Best Bet: Over 3.5 goals (+135) or Both Teams To Score (BTTS) (+180 at BetMGM)
Timing is Everything—Or Nothing
If you’re Newcastle manager Eddie Howe, you couldn’t have drawn this up any better. You should be buying the league schedule maker dinner at one of the finest restaurants in England. Because if there’s ever a great time to travel to Manchester City, it’s right now.
On Tuesday, City hosted Real Madrid in the most anticipated opening legs of the second stage of the Champions League. The Citizens spit up two goals after the 86th minute, en route to a 3-2 loss. And they get to do it all over again next Wednesday in the second leg.
In between that Clash of the Titans sandwich sits a Newcastle team playing its best football of the season. A rested Newcastle team that has been off since disposing of Birmingham City in the FA Cup last Saturday. A rested Newcastle team that is better defensively—and we can’t believe we just typed that—than its hosts. Last season, City yielded 34 goals in 38 games. This year, it allowed 35 goals—in 24 games.
The first game between these two ended 1-1 on Sept. 28. As we put all of this into the mixer, we ask ourselves, “How much does City have left?”
We ask ourselves, “Which of the smorgasbord of wagers do we want here?” You can get Newcastle Over-1.5 goals at +135, taking advantage of its stellar form and City’s leaky defense. For the game, you can take Newcastle +0.5 goals at around +103. Or you can take the Draw No Bet at +193. That makes it a two-way, rather than three-way, wager by making draws a push.
Best Bet: Newcastle + 0.5 goals (+100) or Draw No Bet (+193 at Caesars)
What Does the Fox Say? UNCLE!
Remember when we referenced Leicester in passing above? Now, it’s the Foxes’ turn in the barrel. Because we haven’t forgotten that 18th-place Leicester is the second-worst defensive team in the league.
And neither has Arsenal. The Gunners bring the league’s second-best offense into Leicester, one powering home 49 goals—including a five-spot in its 5-1 dismantling of Manchester City two weeks ago.
This has to have Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta practicing his trademark double fist pumps, the ones he does whenever the Gunners score. Because against a Leicester team that has spit up 53 goals in 24 games—a woeful 2.2 per game—he should get plenty of opportunities to pump both of them.
In case the Gunners hit one of their offensive bumps, the kind they occasionally hit when playing one of the league’s bottom feeders, the Foxes’ style of play should remedy that. Since taking over as Leicester’s boss in November, Ruud van Nistelrooy has preached an attacking, all-hands-forward style of play.
It’s wonderful when it works. The minus-28 goal differential (25 for, 53 against) leads one to believe it doesn’t work often.
We’re doing fist bumps thinking about how to capitalize on this. You could play the Over-3 goals at even money (+100). But we found something with more value—our old friend: Both Teams To Score.
Best Bet: Arsenal to win and Both Teams To Score (BTTS) (+180 at BetMGM)
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