Take a week off and look what happens. Carnage. Utter carnage.
Four of the top-10 teams from Week 8’s rankings lost. Eight teams ranked in the AP Top 25 lost. That included five teams that lost to either lower-ranked or unranked teams, which explains why nine of the top 10 teams find themselves in a different position in Week 9 than they did in Week 8.
One of those teams—Miami—barely remained in the top 10 after losing to Louisville. The Hurricanes plunged from No. 2 to No. 9. But at least they stayed in the top 10.
The same can’t be said for LSU, which lost to Vanderbilt, 31-24. It marked the first time Vandy took out the Tigers since 1990 and explained why LSU fell from 10th to 20th.
Ohio State was the only top 10 team to hold serve. It remains No. 1, the spot it has held since beating Texas the first week of the season.
That’s one of the many reasons we’re digging deeper this week, taking two road teams and a risky home favorite sporting one of the toughest defenses in the country.
Two weeks ago: 1-2. Season 11-11.
Too Soon for Rebels?
Following us here takes more than a little bit of faith, gumption, and intestinal fortitude, because on paper, the Oklahoma team that was dismantled by a mediocre Texas team isn’t in the same neighborhood as a very good Mississippi team that should have beaten Georgia last week.
But as always, there are mitigating factors throwing variables into this equation. First, there is the eternal question: how much did that emotional loss take out of the Rebels? Second, how big a distraction is the rumor storm swirling around Mississippi Coach Lane Kiffin for one of the numerous open coaching positions (read “Florida”).
Those variables are hard to gauge. What isn’t is the Oklahoma defense, which is ranked first in yards allowed (213) and passing yards allowed (132.6), second in points allowed (9.4) and yards per play (3.7), and top 10 in six other categories. Even for Ole Miss standout freshman QB Trinidad Chambliss and his calm demeanor, this may be a case of the wrong team in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Oklahoma is only 4-5-1 ATS in its last 10, but the Sooners are 18-2 SU as a home favorite in the Brent Venables era. It’s not the easiest olive to swallow here, but we’ll gulp it down and expect the Oklahoma defense to do the rest.
Best Bet: Oklahoma -4.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
BYU Avoids The Trap
Savvy readers remember that we were bullish on Iowa State going into Cincinnati as 1.5-point underdogs in Week 6—only to be rudely smacked around when the Cyclones were gashed for 260 yards on the ground. They were somewhat better against Colorado, yet gave up key rushing yards again in a 24-17 loss.
Detect a trend here? We do, considering Iowa State is unbeaten at home and coming off a bye week after those two losses. The Cyclones are a rather pedestrian 3-3-1 ATS and have one cover in their last five games. They are an even more pedestrian 98th nationally in stopping the run.
To all this, here comes BYU, owners of a 7-0 record and one of the best ground attacks in the country. The Cougars are 10th in rushing yards per game (233 yards) and 14th in yards per rush (5.5). This, courtesy of Big 12 rushing leader LJ Martin (774 yards) and underrated freshman QB Bear Bachmeier, he of the 359 yards and eight TDs on the ground.
Do not forget the Cougars’ defense, which is top 20 in yards per completion (eighth), yards per play (ninth), yards allowed per game (11th), yards per passing attempt (10th), points allowed (12th), and yards per rush (16th), among others.
The question remains: can the Cougars bounce back letdown-free after taking out in-state rival Utah last week? We look at all of the above, note BYU’s 5-2 record ATS and the points we’re getting here, and nod our heads.
Best Bet: BYU +2.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
We’re Betting on This Bull Market
Memphis was the best Group of 5 team in the country a year ago this time and was on track to make this THE G5 game of the year. That is, until the Tigers were shocked by Alabama-Birmingham, 31-24, as 21.5-point favorites.
UAB was playing for new coach Alex Mortensen, who took over when Trent Dilfer was fired. But that only scratches the surface of how devastating that loss was for Memphis, which lost QB Brendan Lewis. He was on crutches with a lower-body injury and is listed as day-to-day going into this key game.
Regardless of whether Lewis plays, the Tigers have their hands full, not only forgetting the 219 rushing yards they surrendered to UAB, but also figuring out how to stop South Florida’s do-everything QB Byrum Brown (1,695 yards, 16 TDs/475 yards, 6 TDs rushing). Of Brown’s 475 yards rushing, 329 have come after contact.
South Florida is averaging 55 points a game in conference, 41.7 points overall (eighth nationally), and 476 yards a game (17th). The Bulls are 6-1 ATS, with only a 49-12 loss to Miami as 17.5-point underdogs spoiling the resume. There is nothing to indicate further spoilage of that resume in this one.
Best Bet: South Florida -4 (-110 at Caesars)
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