The Denver Broncos (14-3) and Seattle Seahawks (14-3) secured the #1 seed in their respective conferences and enjoy a bye week to kick off the NFL playoffs. Wild Card Weekend features six games spread out over three days starting on Saturday. When the Wild Card lines were released on Sunday evening, four teams opened as home dogs.
The Seattle Seahawks are the consensus favorite to win Super Bowl 60 at +375 odds according to BetMGM. The top five teams on the futures board are the Los Angeles Rams (+425), Denver Broncos (+650), Philadelphia Eagles (+900), and the New England Patriots (+1100).
#5 L.A. Rams at #4 Carolina Panthers (+9.5, OU 46.5)
The team with the most lethal offense hits the road to play the weakest playoff squad. The Carolina Panthers (8-9) snuck into the playoffs through the back door by winning the NFC South via a tiebreaker, even though they had the same record as the Tampa Bay Bucs and Atlanta Falcons. Weirdly enough, the Rams (12-5) lost to the Panthers in Week 13, which snapped a six-game winning streak.
Although quarterback Matthew Stafford is having an MVP season (4,707 passing yards and 46 touchdowns), he had one of his worst performances of the season against the Panthers with two interceptions and a fumble. The Rams led the NFL in scoring with 30.5 ppg. Veteran WR Davante Adams (14 TDs in 14 games) could return to action after missing the last three weeks with a hamstring injury.
The Rams are one of the best betting teams in the NFL with a 12-5 record against the spread. They won’t blow this rematch, and they should win by double digits.
Pick: Rams -9.5
#7 Green Bay Packers at #2 Chicago Bears (+1.5, O 45.5)
This NFC North battle will mark the third time these two rivals met since early December. They split their regular-season matchups, and the home team won both times. The Chicago Bears (11-6) prevailed in their last meeting in Week 16 with an overtime victory at Soldier Field. They’re stumbling into the postseason with a 2-3 record, but all three losses were one-score games, including Week 14’s game at Green Bay.
Under first-year head coach Ben Johnson, the Bears’ offense looked great in the second half of the season. Their running back tandem of D’Andre Swift and rookie Kyle Monangai combined for 2,333 yards from scrimmage and 15 total touchdowns. Rookie TE Colston Loveland led the team in receptions and receiving yards. Loveland is also a co-leader in touchdown receptions with six and tied with DJ Moore and Rome Odunze.
The Packers (9-7-1) lost their last four games of the regular season, yet they opened the playoffs as a slight road favorite. Their defense struggled since Micah Parsons went down with a season-ending knee injury in Week 15.
If you love the Bears in this spot, jump on them sooner rather than later because they’ll end up a favorite by kickoff.
Pick: Bears +1.5
#6 Buffalo Bills at #3 Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5, OU 51.5)
The Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) won their final eight games of the season, and they’re one of the hottest teams in the NFL. Rookie head coach Liam Coen installed a winning culture and turned around a team that went 4-13 last season. After several lackluster seasons, Trevor Lawrence has revitalized his career under Coen’s new offense.
If you’re a member of the Bills Mafia, you’re excited that the Bills have a chance to reach the Super Bowl in a wide-open AFC. They no longer have any more excuses because Josh Allen will not have to face Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, or Lamar Jackson in January. All three quarterbacks, including his nemesis Mahomes, missed the postseason.
The Bills had the best rushing attack in the league, averaging 159.6 yards per game. James Cook rushed for 1,621 yards and 12 touchdowns while averaging 5.2 yards per carry. Allen added 14 rushing touchdowns.
The Jaguars boast the best rushing defense in the NFL, which allowed 85.6 yards per game. We’ll find out if they can slow down Cook and Allen. The Jags also exceeded market expectations with a 12-5 ATS record.
Pick: Bills -1.5
#6 San Francisco 49ers at #3 Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, OU 45.5)
The defending champion Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) let the #2 seed slip out of their hands with a divisional loss to the Washington Redskins in Week 18. Instead of hosting the Packers, they now square off against the San Francisco 49ers (12-5).
The Eagles started 8-4 but have gone 3-4 since Thanksgiving. Seven of their 11 wins occurred against teams that finished the regular season with a losing record. This squad is nowhere close to the dominating team that won the Super Bowl last year. They struggled to run the ball, and Saquon Barkley’s output is way off from last season.
The 49ers went 7-2 over the last nine games of the season, and those two losses were against playoff-bound division rivals. With a banged-up defense, the 49ers know they must outgun opponents in a shootout. Their dangerous offense scored 34 or more points five times in their last seven victories.
Pick: 49ers +3.5
#7 Los Angeles Chargers at #2 New England Patriots (-3.5, OU 46.5)
Even with a soft schedule, the New England Patriots (14-3) still missed out on the #1 seed. Thirteen of their victories happened against teams that did not qualify for the postseason. The Patriots were ranked #2 in scoring with 28.8 ppg. Their offense finished in the top six in rushing and passing yards. On the other side of the ball, they had the fourth-best scoring defense in the NFL that allowed 18.8 ppg. Now that it’s the postseason, they’ll face legitimate competition.
The Chargers (11-6) were decimated by injuries in the trenches, and they probably have the weakest offensive line among all 14 playoff teams. Yet, they still have Justin Herbert and a solid defense that allowed 20.0 ppg. The points total went under in their last five games, and the Under is 7-1 in their last eight games.
Pick: Patriots -3.5, Under 46.5
#5 Houston Texans at #4 Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5, OU 39.5)
Who’s the hottest team entering the playoffs? The Houston Texans (12-5) finished the season with a nine-game winning streak. They rely on a stifling defense that allows only 17.4 ppg and cobble together enough offense to win close games.
Head coach DeMeco Ryans was on the hot seat after the Texans lost their first three games to kick off the season. They were 3-5 in early November after suffering a soul-crushing one-point loss at home against the Broncos. Since they bottomed out, the Texans unleashed nine consecutive victories, including impressive wins against playoff squads like the Jaguars, Bills, and Chargers.
The Steelers (10-7) secured the last playoff berth after winning a street brawl against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 18. After a strong 4-1 start, the Steelers hit the skids with a 2-5 stretch in the middle of the season. Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers finished on a strong note with a 5-1 clip to win the AFC Nort,h including two victories against the Ravens.
Expect a low-scoring battle in this Monday Night Football playoff game. The Texans love to grind out every possession, while the Steelers know how to win ugly games. Even if they lose this one, the Steelers will keep it close.
Pick: Steelers +3.5, Under 39.5
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