Victor Wembanyama, Chet Holmgren Battle for NBA Rookie of the Year

The NBA Rookie of the Year award is between Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren but while Wembanyama is the favorite, Holgren has been closing the gap.

As the NBA season approaches the mid-season mark, the 2024 Rookie of the Year award has become a two-way race between French wunderkind Victor Wembanyama from the San Antonio Spurs and Chet Holmgren from the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Wembanyama is the betting favorite to win the NBA Rookie of the Year at -180 odds, according to a recent update by Caesars Sportsbook. Holmgren is the second favorite on the futures board at +145 odds.

Voters have two opposing philosophies when it comes to the Rookie of the Year. Should they honor the best rookie even though he’s the best player on a bad team? Or should they recognize the top rookie playing on one of the better teams?

The Thunder are one of the premier teams in the Western Conference, and they’re competing for the No. 1 playoff seed. The Spurs are ranked last in the Western Conference, and among the three-worst squads in the NBA this season.


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Wembanyama Odds Slip but Still Favorite

Several teams “tanked” last season for a chance to improve their odds at securing the draft rights to Wembanyama. Scouts were infatuated with the 7-foot-4 Wembanyama, who had been playing pro ball in France. He drew early comparisons to Tim Duncan and Kevin Durant, and was considered a “once in a generation” talent as the best big man prospect in two decades.

The Spurs hit paydirt when they were awarded the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. After the Spurs selected Wembanyama with the first pick, he became an instant betting favorite to win the Rookie of the Year at -250 odds.

Wembanyama leads the Spurs in scoring this season averaging 20.4 points, 10.1 rebounds, 3.2 blocks, and 1.1 steals per game. He’s shooting 46.5% from the floor and 29.5% from 3-point range.

Wembanyama found his groove in January. He’s averaging more than 24 points per game and notched the first triple-double of his career. He more than held his own in a recent game against reigning MVP Joel Embiid with 33 points in a losing effort against the Philadelphia 76ers.

Wembanyama dropped a career-high 38 points against the Phoenix Suns in November. He is still the favorite to win the award but his odds have dropped to -180.


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Holmgren Gaining Ground

The Thunder selected Holmgren with the second-overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft out of Gonzaga. A foot injury sidelined Holmgren for the entire 2022-23 season, so his rookie campaign was delayed a full year. He took advantage of the year off, and added some much-needed weight while learning the Thunder’s offense.

Holmgren made an impact for the Thunder this season as their starting center. He averages 17.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 2.6 blocks per game. He’s the third-leading scorer on the team behind MVP-candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams.

Holmgren moved ahead of Wembanyama in the Rookie of the Year race for a week or so in December, but Wembanyama has since re-emerged as the betting favorite.

Before the season began, Holmgren was +500 odds to win Rookie of the Year. He’s currently +145 odds, and offers up the best value on the board.

Rookie Long Shots: Jaime Jaquez, Brandon Miller

Two other first-year players are long shots to win the Rookie of the Year at +30000 odds including Jaime Jaquez and Brandon Miller.

The Miami Heat selected Jaquez with the 18th pick in the draft. Jaquez played forward at UCLA and led the Bruins to a trip to the 2021 Final Four.  Jaquez impressed the Heat in training camp with his defense, and he earned a spot in head coach Erik Spoelstra’s rotation as a guard and swingman. He started 15 games this season when shooting guard Tyler Herro was sidelined with an ankle injury.

Jaquez averages 14.0 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 2.7 assists per game. He’s shooting 51.3% from the floor and knocked down 35% of his 3-point shots. Jaquez led the Heat with 31 points and 10 rebounds in a big win against the 76ers on Christmas.

The Charlotte Hornets selected Miller with the second pick in the 2023 draft out of Alabama. He began the season as a reserve with the second unit, before head coach Steve Clifford promoted him to the starting five. The rookie forward averages 15.1 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game. He’s shooting 38.8% from 3-point land.


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