Most people believe the halfway point of the Major League Baseball season is the All Star game, but by that time, all teams will have surpassed the true halfway point, when they have played 81 games. By this weekend when all teams will have hit the true halfway point, four of the six divisions have strong leaders, all ahead by a minimum of 4 games. The Dodgers and the Cubs reign in the National League’s West and Central division respectively, and in the American League Detroit and Houston have big leads in those same divisions. Of course, with still around 80 games to play, anything can happen, but these teams seem to have solidified their positions and their odds to win are quite high.
But it’s the eastern divisions of both leagues that are the closest, with the Phillies clinging to a slim lead in the National League and the Yankees doing the same in the AL. Let’s drill down.
NL East Beasts
Before the start of the season, the Atlanta Braves were the favorite. Last year, the injury bug bit the Braves, but they still reached the playoffs as a wild card team. They were swept in the first round by the San Diego Padres. Some of the pitchers and hitters who went down last year were predicted to return before the start of this season but still the injuries mounted.
Stellar pitcher Chris Sale went down last week and is out indefinitely. He’s been the ace of the staff throughout the first half of the season with a 1.41 ERA. Spencer Strider has returned to the team and is slowly regaining his form, but the Braves have a mountain to climb, now almost 10 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets.
The Phils and the Mets have played king of the hill throughout the first half of the season. At this moment, the Phillies have a slim half-game lead over the Mets thanks to taking two of three games last weekend. But their bats have now gone cold losing two consecutive shutouts to the Astros.
For the Mets, it’s not much better. They’ve lost 8 of their last 10 games, but things are looking up. Their $700 million player, Juan Soto, had a terrible start to the year but is going on a tear that makes him look like the Juan Soto who deserved that contract.
First baseman Pete Alonso carried the team through the first two months and is still producing. Brandon Nimmo is in the midst of a 28-game stretch where he’s slashing .315/.378/.556 with seven homers and five doubles.
Pitching has been the Mets Achilles heel this year. The “ace” of the squad is now former Yankee closer turned starter Clay Holmes. His 2.97 ERA leads the team, but he’s closely followed by David Peterson at 2.98. The return of Frankie Montas will also help.
In Philadelphia, the pitching staff is the star right now. Zack Wheeler is a leading Cy Young candidate. Ranger Suarez and Jesús Luzardo have posted great performances at times. The bullpen could use some help, but otherwise, the Phils are pitching-rich.
On the offense, the oft-injured Bryce Harper is due back soon, and in the meantime, the offense has been led by Kyle Schwarber, followed by Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, and JT Realmuto.
The Phillies have a big edge at BetMGM to win the NL East at -135. The Mets are +120, and the Braves at +1500.
AL East Kings
The New York Yankees have been atop the AL East from the start. They were running away with the division, despite losing their ace, Gerrit Cole, and 2024 AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil for the season. But a former Brave came to the rescue in the form of Max Fried. He’s 10-2 in his first Yankee season and has anchored an acceptable rotation with Clarke Schmidt doing a good job. But with Ryan Yarbrough dealing with a right oblique strain, some Triple-A help is needed. Right-hander Allan Winans, who is 9-0 at Scranton with a 0.90 ERA, could be a game changer.
On the offensive side, the return of Giancarlo Stanton has come at the right time. While Aaron Judge is having one of the best years ever in baseball, Stanton joins a lineup that includes former Dodger Cody Bellinger and former Cardinal Paul Goldschmidt.
But the bats and arms have been inconsistent lately, giving the surprising Tampa Bay Rays hope for a playoff berth, and maybe even a division title. Despite their current homeless situation—they are playing at the New York Yankees spring training complex, Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, after the dome at Tropicana Field was damaged by Hurricane Milton—the Rays have exhibited a “one for all” attitude with lots of lesser-known players. The Rays rotation is solid, led by righty Drew Rasmussen, followed by Zack Littell, Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley, and Shane Baz. It’s an embarrassment of riches that could lead to trades potentially changing the dynamic of the division race, especially with the plausible return of lefty Shane McClanahan in August.
And the Rays bullpen, led by Manuel Rodriguez, Garrett Cleavinger, and Pete Fairbanks, have been brilliant in 2025.
And with their no-name lineup, the Rays are making history. Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, and Jake Mangum all have had double-digit hitting streaks. Budding superstar Jonathan Aranda is also making a huge impact.
But much of the credit for this crazy season has to go to Tampa Bay Rays manager Kevin Cash, who takes what management gives him and gets the most out of every player.
Toronto, however, is the opposite story. With a lineup full of superstars led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the Blue Jays can’t seem to get out of their own way, but at the halfway point, they are still only 3 games back of the Yankees.
Hitting isn’t an issue for the Blue Jays. In addition to Guerrero, the lineup includes World Series champion George Springer, shortstop Dante Bichette, and outfielder Anthony Santander.
Pitching has been the real pain point for Toronto. The return of another former World Series champion, Max Scherzer, last week helped solidify the rotation, but the Jays will be looking to add at the trade deadline, July 31.
At BetMGM, the Yankees are most likely to win the AL East at -250. The Rays are +375 and the Blue Jays are +700. Like a long shot? After trading away their best hitter, Rafael Devers, the Red Sox are +2000.
All the teams mentioned here will be keeping a close eye on prospective additions to their teams before the deadline expires. The problem is that the majority of MLB franchises have a decent possibility of reaching the playoffs with the extra wild-card team that was added last year. So buyers may exceed sellers, giving the selling team much more leverage. We’ll revisit this issue later this month.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
