The Kansas City Chiefs, the nine-time defending AFC West champions, are involved in a tight three-way race to win the NFL’s most competitive division this season. Can the Chiefs continue their dominance with a 10th-straight division title? Or will they be dethroned by the Los Angeles Chargers or Denver Broncos?
The Chargers and Broncos are co-favorites to win the AFC West at +175 odds according to BetMGM. After losing in Week 5, the Chiefs slipped to +185 odds.
The Las Vegas Raiders occupy last place in the division, and they’re the long shot to win the AFC West at +8000 odds.
L.A. Chargers: Banged-Up Bolts
Record: 3-2
AFC West Odds: +175
Super Bowl Odds: +1800
The Chargers are in first place in the AFC West with a 3-0 divisional record. They began the season 3-0, but key injuries contributed to their last two losses.
The Chargers are ravaged with cluster injuries to offensive linemen Joe Alt, Rashawn Slater, and Mekhi Becton. With backups providing inadequate pass protection, Justin Herbert and the offense struggled in the last two weeks.
In their three victories, Herbet averaged 286.6 passing yards and two touchdowns with just one interception. In their two losses, Herbert averaged 184.5 yards and one touchdown per game. He also threw three interceptions and was sacked six times.
The Chargers lost veteran running back Najee Harris in Week 3 to a season-ending Achilles injury. Harris’ backup, rookie Omarion Hampton, exited Week 5 with an ankle injury. They now must move forward with a third-stringer, Hassan Haskins, and practice-squad players Kimani Vidal and Amar Johnson.
The Chargers will rely on their defense to keep them in games, even though linebacker Khalil Mack went on the IR with an elbow injury. They have the fourth-best scoring defense in the NFL, allowing 17.8 points per game. They’re also ranked seventh overall in defensive DVOA.
If the playoffs began today, the Chargers would secure the #4 seed in the AFC. The outlook is somewhat grim with upcoming games against the Indianapolis Colts (4-1), Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1), Jaguars (4-1), and Philadelphia Eagles (4-2). In December, the Chargers hit the road for two tough divisional games, which could determine the AFC West champion. They square off against the Chiefs in Week 15 and meet the Broncos in Week 18.
The Chargers are +175 odds to win the AFC West, which they last achieved in the 2009 season, when they were still the San Diego Chargers.
Denver Broncos: Best Value, Easy Schedule
Record: 3-2
AFC West Odds: +175
Super Bowl Odds: +2200
The Broncos improved to 3-2 after they defeated the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles in Philadelphia. The well-balanced Broncos are ranked tenth in both offensive and defensive DVOA. The Broncos boast the second-best defense in the NFL, allowing 16.8 points per game. Their run defense is ranked #5, and their passing defense is ranked #8 overall.
The Broncos have the fourth-best rushing attack in the NFL, averaging 140.6 yards per game. Veteran J.K. Dobbins leads the team with four touchdowns and 402 yards. He averages 5.2 yards per carry. Rookie RJ Harvey contributed 150 rushing yards and 87 receiving yards. Quarterback Bo Nix also added 100 rushing yards and one touchdown.
If the playoffs began today, the Broncos would lock up an AFC Wild Card spot as the #6 seed. The Broncos offer the best value to win the division at +175 odds because they have a much easier remaining schedule. Four out of their next five games are against the New York Jets, New York Giants, Houston Texans, and the Raiders. With the Chargers banged up, the Broncos are in the best position to compete with the Chiefs and secure their first AFC West title since winning five straight division crowns between 2011 and 2015.
Kansas City Chiefs: Ten in a Row?
Record: 2-3
AFC West Odds: +185
Super Bowl Odds: +1000
Even though the Chiefs stumbled out of the gate with a 0-2 record, fans and critics were reluctant to sound an alarm. The Chiefs won their next two games, and it looked like they got back on track thanks to their best offensive output in a few seasons.
The Chiefs are ranked #7 in offensive DVOA. With 125 points, they lead the division in scoring, averaging 25.0 ppg. Their run defense is their biggest liability, as they allowed six rushing touchdowns this season. They allowed 107 total points, which is second-worst in the AFC West.
After losing to the Jaguars on Monday Night Football in Week 5, the Chiefs are currently in 10th place in the AFC. They would miss the Wild Card if the playoffs began today. Since the Chiefs drafted Patrick Mahomes, they have never missed the postseason.
The Chiefs were the preseason favorite to win the AFC West for a 10th time in a row. After pulling even at 2-2, the Chiefs were the favorite to win the division at +140 odds, while the Chargers and Broncos were both at +200 odds. After losing to the Jaguars in Week 5, the Chiefs slipped to +185 odds while oddsmakers installed the Chargers and Broncos as co-favorites at +175.
The Chiefs face a tough remaining schedule with upcoming games against the Detroit Lions, Washington Commanders, and Buffalo Bills before their bye. After their bye, they play the Broncos twice, the Colts, and the Chargers. They also battle the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving.
Despite a stacked schedule, the Chiefs have the best Super Bowl odds in their division at +1000.
Las Vegas Raiders: Sin City Longshots
Record: 1-4
AFC West Odds: +8000
Super Bowl Odds: +75000
After winning the season opener against the New England Patriots, the Raiders lost their next four games. Their defense allows 27.8 ppg, which is among the worst in the league.
Tight end Brock Bowers is battling a PCL knee injury. Meanwhile, quarterback Geno Smith has been erratic and appeared visibly frustrated on the sidelines during their current four-game losing streak.
After a slow start, rookie running back Ashton Jeanty has been one of the few bright spots for Pete Carroll’s squad. Jeanty exploded for 155 combined yards and three touchdowns in Week 4. Jeanty was the preseason betting favorite to win the offensive rookie of the year, but he’s currently second on the BetMGM awards board behind Tampa Bay Bucs WR Emeka Egbuka.
The Raiders last won the AFC West in 2002 when they were the Oakland Raiders. They’re a long shot to win the division at +8000 odds and lumped together at the bottom of the futures board as a moonshot to win the Super Bowl at +75000 odds.
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