How is a bettor to know how good the individual baseball teams will be once the season kicks off? It’s difficult to track from spring training because most of the everyday starters during the season only get a few at bats or a few innings in the spring. It isn’t until the regular season kicks off that they begin to find their groove.
And the early season results in 2024 bear that up. Who would have thought the New York Yankees would go 5-0 out of the gate when their first three-game series was against their nemesis, the Houston Astros? They went on to sweep the “Stros” and then pick up another two games from last year’s World Series runner up, the Arizona Diamondbacks.
And break up the Pittsburgh Pirates. A four-game sweep of the Miami Marlins, followed by snagging the first game of the Washington Nationals series to go 5-0 as well. OK, it’s just the Fish and the Nats, but these are the Pirates, after all.
Starting Pitching
One way spring training can help a bettor is to check out how the starting pitchers perform in those meaningless games. If they are sharp and come to camp in shape and ready to go, might be time to ride that pony early on. After all, the old adage that hitters have to catch up with pitchers in the early season might be appropriate.
Corbin Burnes is a case in point. He was traded from the Milwaukee Brewers to the Baltimore Orioles. Had a great spring training and he’s anxious to make an impression on his new hometown fans. First game, he’s gifted a five-run lead after the second inning. He cruises along giving up only one run and one hit in six innings and strikes out 11.
On the other hand, you’ve got the Japanese free agent Yoshinobu Yamamoto signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers. He comes to camp having never thrown a pitch in the majors. He’s in a new environment in a new world. His spring training appearances are horrific. And in his first real game in Korea against the Padres he gets murdered. Gives up five earned runs in the first inning and leaves with a 45 ERA. But to his credit, in the cozy environment of Dodger Stadium for his second game, he goes five strong innings and doesn’t give up a run, lowering his ERA to 7.5.
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Underdog Hedges
For those who like to bet the longshots and underdogs, early season baseball can be an opportunity. Lines early in the seasons are largely based on expectations. If you bet the Yankees during their three games in Houston for the first series, you got plus money every game.
While the New York Mets aren’t expected to be great this year with the loss of the major pitching stars that were supposed to elevate them during the last disastrous season, you didn’t expect them to get swept by the Brewers, who lost their manager and their best pitcher in Burnes. But that’s exactly what happened, and the Mets still haven’t recovered losing to the lowly Detroit Tigers in the fourth game of the season.
But this is the time of year that gives hope to all teams like the Tigers, the Pirates and the Brewers. Whether they can maintain that success rate is questionable, but now’s the time to recognize that new sensation.
Slow and Fast Starters
Some players who are supposed to be world beaters take time to reach their mid-season form. But others come out of nowhere to threaten superstardom.
One player who isn’t new to the high levels of baseball is Juan Soto. Breaking out as a rookie in 2018 leading the Washington Nationals to a pennant. Traded last year to the San Diego Padres, he didn’t have a disappointing year, but it could have been better. He had one more year on his Nationals contract but was traded to the New York Yankees in the off-season. He led them to the sweep of the Astros with his bat and more unexpectedly with his defense.
But other players could have a great year as well. Josh Naylor, the first baseman for the Cleveland Guardians, could have a breakout season. He’s hit in all four games for the Tribe and could be primed.
Astros catcher Yainer Diaz is red hot to start the season, hitting over .400 in his first five games. The backstop also is great at handling a pitching staff and he’s only 25.
The Cincinnati Reds have a great combination of up-and-coming young talent but Will Benson might be one of the best. He’s off to a great start in the first five games of this year, and last year he hit .275 with sneaky power.
Reid Detmers had a first great start for the Los Angeles Angels against the Orioles going five innings and giving up only two hits. While his record last year was 4-10, his ERA was a decent 4.4.
These are only some of the players to keep an eye on in 2024, but let’s see where they are in a couple of months.
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