What got into the Gridiron Guide? After its second consecutive 3-0 week, the Guide remembers the Pac-12 as we knew it, while finding another reliable betting trend involving one of the Big Ten’s heavyweights.
This week is a milestone week in college football—and not just because the Guide went 3-0 for the second consecutive week.
This week marks Farewell Week in the Pac-12. All six games pit teams against each other that will be in different conferences next year. Meaning that as you watch any Pac-12 games this week, know you’re likely watching the last meeting between those teams for the foreseeable future.
And know again, that the Pac-12 is going out on its shield as the best conference in college football this season.
So, it’s only natural that the best game of the weekend puts Big Ten-bound Oregon against Big-12-bound Utah.
Last week: 3-0. Season: 15-10
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Best Game of Farewell Week
The Utah Utes have won 18 consecutive games and 29 of their last 30 at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Included in that streak are several victories over top-10 Oregon Ducks teams. And we’re getting a touchdown? Shut up and take our money.
But wait a second? Isn’t Oregon 8-2 ATS in its last 10 and 6-1 in its last seven? Don’t the Ducks have the No. 2 scoring offense in the country (47 points a game)? The No. 2 total offense in the country (551.6 yards per game)? Don’t they have QB Bo Nix, who made his NCAA-record 54th career start last week, meaning he’s been around longer than your average SNL cast member? And Nix has thrown for 2,089 yards with an otherworldly 19-1 TD-to-interception ratio.
Is this where we point out that interception is Oregon’s only turnover this season?
It is. While Utah is 96th in scoring (23.4 ppg) and 98th in total offense (345 ypg), the Utes are deceptively annoying.
It’s also where we point out the Utah defense is 11th in scoring (15 ppg) and 14th in total defense (295.4). It’s where we point out the Utes are fifth in run defense (78 ypg). It’s also where we point out these two are 5-5 ATS in their last 10. And did we say we’re getting a touchdown with a top-15 defense playing in a fortress? Again, shut up and take our money.
Best Bet: Utah +7 (-110 at BetMGM)
Watch: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, FOX or fuboTV
A New Brand of Madness
Are we talking Duke Blue Devils–Louisville Cardinals here? On a college football story? You almost expect to see Mike Krzyzewski and Rick Pitino prowling the sidelines here, with the hyperspace tones of Dick Vitale serenading the festivities, rhapsodizing about diaper dandies and “Taking a T-O, Babeeeee…”
Instead of legends, we get two of the rising coaches in the game in Duke’s Mike Elko and Louisville’s Jeff Brohm, who is 7-4 ATS when coming off a bye. That’s key on numerous fronts, not least of which being this gives Louisville RB Jawhar Jordan, his 661 rushing yards and injured hamstring a week to heal. Meanwhile, Duke QB Riley Leonard, the Alpha and Omega of the Blue Devils’ offense, reinjured his sore ankle in last week’s loss to the Florida State Seminoles, which makes him questionable for this one.
Both teams are coming off losses, although Louisville’s came two weeks ago against a woeful Pitt team. We’re going to draw a line through that one, channel Dickie V and embrace the Cardinals’ “PTPers” to “Bring a W.”
Best Bet: Louisville -4 (-110 at Caesars)
Watch: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN or fuboTV
How About Another Reliable Trend?
Remember last week, when the Guide illustrated betting trends that should send you running to the window? Let’s add another one to the pantheon of Service Academy Unders, LSU Overs and fading the USC Trojans defense. The Ohio State Buckeyes against the Big Ten West. The Buckeyes come into Camp Randall Stadium riding a 15-game winning streak against the Wisconsin Badgers.
Ohio State is 9-1 against the Badgers in their last 10, dating to Wisconsin’s 31-18 victory—in 2010.
That was when the Badgers had something resembling a reliable offense. Don’t let last week’s fourth-quarter comeback from 14 points down against Illinois lull you into believing these Badgers have a reliable offense.
The Buckeyes are 7-0, but only 4-3 ATS, the byproduct of the monstrous spreads Ohio State usually sees. But the Buckeyes are 1-6 to the Under this year, the byproduct of that monstrous defense. Wisconsin, meanwhile, is respectable against the pass, 29th nationally in passing yards (196.9 ypg), which could keep this one out of the offensive ionosphere. The Badgers are 4-6 to the Under and 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10.
You could take Ohio State and give the 14.5 points, but while we like the Buckeyes to dot another ‘I’ in conference, we like another trend here.
Best Bet: Under-43.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Watch: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC or fuboTV
