The best and worst part about the March Madness men’s college basketball tournament is that anyone can win a pool due to the unpredictable nature of March Madness with bracket-busting upsets. Even if you don’t know a lot about college basketball, you should still participate in your office pool, or with friends and family.
If you haven’t been paying close attention to college hoops this year, but you’re looking to gain an edge in your March Madness pool, here are some handy tips.
Will the #1 Seed Win Again?
The #1 seed won March Madness 24 times including 12 out of the last 16 championships. A #2 seed won the championship five times, the #3 seed won March Madness four times, and the #4 seed won twice including last season. A #5 seed has never won the championship.
In 1985, #8 Villanova defeated #1 Georgetown in one of the biggest upsets in March Madness history. Villanova also made history as the highest seed to win the tournament as a #8 seed.
In 2023, the best seed in the Final Four was #4 UConn who eventually ran the table to win the championship. UConn is currently the betting favorite to win this year’s championship at +500 odds according to BetMGM.
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You should avoid all “chalk” and not pick all four #1 seeds for your Final Four. There has been only one instance – in 2008 – in which all four top seeds advanced to the Final Four.
Work Backwards
Figure out your champion first, and then envision the two teams in the championship, before selecting the other teams in the Final Four.
Continue to work backwards with the Elite 8, Sweet 16, and Round of 32. You’d be surprised that you can see a clearer path to a championship when you begin backwards.
#12 Seed vs. #5 Seed Upset
When brackets are released on Selection Sunday, the first match up I look up are the four games featuring the #5 vs. #12 seeds.
Roughly 35% of all #12 seeds win their opening-round game. 2023 was a rare exception in which zero #12 seeds advanced to the second round.
Since 2001, there have been 11 years in which multiple #12 seeds won their first-round game. There’s been five instances in which three out of the four #12 seeds pulled off first-round upsets in the same tournament in 2002, 2009, 2013, 2014, and 2019.
Try to pick at least one #12 seed to pull off an upset over a #5 seed. You should also consider advancing a #12 seed to the Sweet 16. Out of all #12 seeds who won a first round game, 42% of them won a second-round game and advanced to the Sweet 16.
Looking for a Cinderella with the #11 Seed
It’s no longer a big secret that you should pick at least one #12 seed as an upset, but don’t overlook the #11 seed.
The #11 seed wins about 38 percent of the time against the #6 seed. Since March Madness expanded to 64 teams in 1985, there were 26 instances in which #11 seeds advanced to the Sweet 16 including nine Elite 8 appearances.
Five #11 seeds advanced to the Final Four including LSU (1986), George Mason (2006), VCU (2011), Loyola-Chicago (2018), and UCLA (2021).
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Deep Sleepers: #13, #14 and #15 Seeds
Since 2016, seven #13 seeds pulled off opening-round upsets including two in 2018 and 2021. Last year, Furman upset #4 Virginia in a one-point thriller.
Be aware that #13 seeds tend to be one-and-done upset squads. #13 seeds are only 6-26 in the second round. Over the last ten years, only one #13 seed advanced to the Sweet 16 with LaSalle in 2013. There has never been a #13 seed that advanced beyond the Sweet 16.
Here’s a fun fact: #13 seeds are 7-2 in first-round games decided by one point.
Since 1986, 22 different #14 seeds toppled #3 seeds. Nine #14 seeds pulled off first-round upsets since 2005. Abilene Christian was the last #13 seed to bust a bracket when they squeaked by #3 Texas in 2021.
The #15 seed only won 11 times in the first round, but they pulled off seven victories since 2016. A #15 seed upset the #2 seed in each of the last three years. Princeton picked off #2 Arizona as the #15 seed last year. In 2022, St. Peter’s played the role of Cinderella with an Elite Eight appearance as the #15 seed.
The #1 seed never lost to a #16 seed between 1985 and 2017. There were two close calls in 1989 and narrow escapes in 1990 and 1996. The #1 seeds dodged devastating upsets until one fateful afternoon in 2018. During the 2018 March Madness tournament, #1 Virginia was blown out by UMBC, who became the first #16 seed to pull off an opening-round upset.
In 2023, Farleigh Dickinson became the only the second #16 seed to win a game when they ambushed Purdue in the first round.
Raining Treys
We’re smack in the middle of the analytics era and teams love to hoist 3-pointers at ridiculous rates. An underdog can pull off an upset if they get hot from beyond the arc, and a top-ranked team could meet their demise if they go ice cold from downtown.
Keep an eye on the best 3-point shooting teams in the country. But be wary as well. If you live by the trey, you’ll also die by the trey.
Purdue connects on 40.9 percent of their 3-point attempts, which leads Division I. Kentucky, Baylor, Dayton, and Colorado are in the top seven in the nation, and they shoot around 40 percent from 3-point land.
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Champions at the Charity Stripe
Missed free throws are often the reason why good teams prematurely exit March Madness. Clutch free-throw shooting in crunch time is how teams continue to survive and advance in the tournament.
Villanova leads the nation with a free-throw percentage of 81.7 percent. Princeton, Wake Forest, and Indiana State are in the top five and they all shoot over 79 percent from the charity stripe.
Size Matters
If you’re playing in a large pool with a thousand-plus runners, it’s wise to play multiple brackets. You might be out of pocket a few buy-ins, but at least you have more than one pony in this frantic race.
In these super-sized pools, you must make risky picks with your Elite Eight and Final Four teams. Getting lucky with first-round upsets is not as important as correctly predicting seven or eight teams in the Elite Eight.
If you correctly pick the champion in a large pool, you will be up against other entries who also picked the same winner. That means you must also correctly predict both teams in the championship game and nail at least three or possibly all four of the Final Four teams.
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