Can we call it “The Curse of the Favorite” yet? Conversely, can we sincerely ask if a favorite is going to win the 152nd edition of the Kentucky Derby?
Before we answer that, let’s dispense with the housekeeping. America’s most famous race, which doubles as an all-day bacchanalia centered around “the fastest two minutes in sports,” is Saturday from Churchill Downs in Louisville.
Post-time is 6:57 p.m. ET and the usual 160,000 racing, betting and party fans will be in attendance in various states of sobriety and non-sobriety, forming the on-site wagering foundation that is expected to surpass $300 million in total.
And as usual, plenty of that money will cascade upon this year’s 4-1 morning-line favorite: Renegade. Generally regarded as the best horse in the field, the Into Mischief progeny is undefeated in two 2026 starts: a 3 ¾-length handling of the Listed Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs and his piece de’ resistance to date—a four-length commanding victory at even-money in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. With a sterling record of 5:2-2-1 and more than $1 million already in the bank, he is clearly the class of the numerous closers and deep closers in the Derby 152 field.
And his odds would be likely in the 3-1/5-2 neighborhood if it wasn’t for one pesky little variable to the equation . No, it’s not the fact that favorites haven’t won the Derby this decade—more on that momentarily.
Post Problem
It’s the fact that Renegade drew the dreaded rail: Post 1. The same post that hasn’t sent a horse to the Churchill Downs winner’s circle since Ferdinand in 1986. The same post that last watched a horse hit the board in 2017, with Lookin’ at Lee, the runner-up to Always Dreaming.
This is far from ideal for the Todd Pletcher charge. , It could be more problematic, but Renegade is a closer, which bodes better than if he was a pace-setter or presser. Provided he and jockey Irad Ortiz—who picked Renegade over two other contenders—don’t get boxed into a terrible trip, he should be around late to pick off tired horses and catch a piece of the board.
Favorite Fails
That said, Renegade is the morning-line favorite. And recent history has been far from kind to morning-line Derby favorites. Here are the odds of the last seven Derby winners, which include 2019’s Country House, who was bumped up to first when Maximum Security—that year’s favorite—was disqualified for interference.
- 2025—Sovereignty, 8-1
- 2024—Mystik Dan, 18-1
- 2023—Mage, 15-1
- 2022—Rich Strike, 80-1
- 2021—Medina Spirit, 12-1
- 2020—Authentic, 9-1
- 2019—Country House, 65-1
Medina Spirit was included because, despite his eventual disqualification, he was the winner for cashable purposes.
We’ll do the math for you. The average odds for a Derby winner since the last time a favorite won (Justify in 2018) is 29.6-1—another advertisement for finding sleepers and getting them prominently on your tickets.
First Commandant
We’ll get to a few of those in a moment. Let’s look at our favorite horse to wear Derby 152 roses—Commandment (6-1). There is little, if anything, to dislike about the son of standout sire Into Mischief, who is one of three Brad Cox-trained colts in the Derby field.
First: the speed. Commandment checks the boxes of Derby contenders through respected turf publicist and former turf writer Jennie Rees’ Final Fractions Theory, which states that the best Derby contenders ran their final furlong in their last prep race in 13 seconds or faster and their final three furlongs in 38 seconds or better. Commandment (12.3/36.5) easily checks both boxes. There’s also his 101 and 100 Beyer Speed Figures from his Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby victories, making him one of five horses—and the only one with two—with triple-digit Beyers.
Speaking of the Florida Derby, Commandment’s gritty victory in that race, complete with a rocky trip that mandated a furious stretch drive for a nose victory over The Puma, gave him four victories in a row. That streak began with a maiden victory at Churchill Downs, thus validating his bona fides on this track.
Need more proof? Commandment owns five victories at five different distances. His stalking style and never-give-up attitude are trademarks of Derby winners.
What’s Next?
From there? Well, this is a wide-open Derby, as seen by the Final Fractions Theory, since 12 horses in the 20-horse field check both boxes. Each of the other contenders comes with winning potential. They also come with questions.
Start with Chief Wallabee (8-1). He finished third to Commandment and The Puma in the Florida Derby, which is more of an endorsement than a detraction, considering that race was the best Derby prep of the season. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, who conditioned Sovereignty last year, is adding blinkers. Racing analyst David Aragona said that horses adding blinkers are 0-for-10 in Derbies. But Chief Wallabee has the speed (12.6/36.9) and guts (3-for-3 in money finishes) to contend.
Speaking of questions, there’s Emerging Market (15-1). There is no doubting his speed or his stamina; you don’t win the longest Derby prep—the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby—lacking either. But unless you’re Leonatus and it’s 1883, you don’t win Derbies with only two races under your belt. So you balance Emerging Market’s lack of a racing foundation with his undeniable speed.
Consider Contenders
There’s The Puma (10-1), who brings in one of the most versatile running styles and courageous attitudes of any contender. He’s run with Renegade, Commandment, Chief Wallabee, and Further Ado and distinguished himself nicely each time, finishing third to Renegade in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, winning the Tampa Bay Derby, and finishing as the runner-up to Commandment.
There’s Further Ado (6-1), he of the 11-length destruction of the Blue Grass Stakes, complete with field-best 106 Beyer. That alone stamps him as a contender, but does it also stamp him as a bounce candidate, especially against a weak Blue Grass field?
Two other sleepers bear mention: Japanese import Danon Bourbon (20-1) and Golden Tempo (30-1). Danon Bourbon is unbeaten in three races of nine furlongs or further, and he’s won those three races by a combined 18 ½ lengths. The Maxfield progeny has the pedigree, but Churchill Downs, the first Saturday in May, is deeper water than anything he’s seen in Japan.
Golden Tempo is our favorite longshot: a deep closer with the pedigree (Curlin) and perfect in-the-money record (4:2-0-2) to find his way into your exotics, primarily the trifecta and superfecta. Make no mistake, even with solid thirds in the Grade 2 Risen Star and Grade 2 Louisiana Derby (a length behind Emerging Market and Pavlovian), Golden Tempo is devoid of tactical speed and is running against better closers. But Louisiana Derby alums tend to find their way into the top four. Nine of the last 15 Derbies have had one of those Fair Grounds products to hit the superfecta.
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