Although the National League appears much stronger than the American League in 2026, the first quarter of the season delivered plenty of intrigue. The New York Yankees (26-15) and Tampa Bay Rays (26-13) are locked in a tight race for first place in the AL East, chasing the best record in the league. The AL Central remains wide open, with teams beating up on each other through the first 40 games. Meanwhile, the Athletics (21-9) stunned everyone by seizing first place in the AL West.
There’s plenty of baseball left, but let’s take a quick look at how each division is shaping up after the first quarter of the season:
AL East: Rays and Yanks Open Big Lead
The Yankees are a huge favorite to win the AL East at -280, followed by the Rays (+360). The rest of the division trails well behind: Toronto Blue Jays (+1500), Baltimore Orioles (+2500), and Boston Red Sox (+2500). After the 40-game mark, the Rays and Yankees built nearly a nine-game cushion over the rest of the division.
The Yankees fast start has been fueled by elite pitching and the best in the AL (3.14 ERA, 1.16 WHIP). Cam Schlittler looks like an early Cy Young candidate (5-1, 1.35 ERA, 0.81 WHIP), while crafty veteran Max Fried (4-2) has been dealing. Will Warren (4-1) and Ryan Weathers stabilized the rotation while the team awaits the return of Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon.
On offense, the Bronx Bombers lead the AL with 63 home runs. Reigning MVP, Aaron Judge, leads the majors with 16 HR, and he’s on pace for 60 long balls. Ben Rice is the best hitter in the lineup with a slashline of .306/.415/.678. Rice has been tearing it up with 13 HR and 29 RBI.
The Rays hold a slim lead over the Yankees thanks to a well-balanced squad. They’re ranked second in batting average (.254) and stolen bases (40). Their pitching has been excellent (3.44 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) and only trails the Yankees in the AL.
The Blue Jays (18-22) and Orioles (18-23) had high hopes this year, so they’re not happy to be lumped together with the Red Sox (17-23) in a bum fight for the AL East cellar.
The Blue Jays, fresh off last year’s AL pennant, struggled early this season. Injuries to Jose Berrios, Shane Bieber, Max Scherzer, and Yimi Garcia gutted the starting rotation. Their anemic offense, ranked in the bottom three in the AL, has a serious problem manufacturing runs (164) and with power (37 HRs). In comparison, Judge and Rice from the Yankees combined for 30 homers this season.
The Orioles are plagued by the second-worst pitching staff in the AL with a 4.74 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. They’re also the only team that has not combined for a shutout this season. If their mound woes continue, it’s going to be a very long summer.
The Red Sox (17-23) have been a hot mess since Day 1. Firing manager Alex Cora and most of the coaching staff a couple of weeks ago has only created more chaos in the dugout, especially when every fan in New England knows their inept front office also needs an overhaul.
AL Central: Guardians and Cannibals
The Cleveland Guardians (21-21) are a slight favorite to threepeat as AL Central champs at +180, followed by the Detroit Tigers (+210), Kansas City Royals (+320), and Minnesota Twins (+750).
Only 2.5 games separate first and last place, making this the AL’s true cannibal division that feasts on each other nightly. The way it’s shaping up, the division winner may be the only team to secure a playoff berth while second place bubbles the AL Wild Card.
The Guardians find themselves in first place despite a punchless offense. They’re the second-worst-hitting team (.230) in the AL and third in strikeouts. Their pitching, fourth best in the league (3.94 ERA, 1.28 WHIP), has kept the Guardians at the top of the standings.
The Tigers (19-22) have similar issues. Their staff is also in the Top 5 overall (3.90 ERA, 1.31 WHP), and their bullpen is ranked fifth (3.63 ERA). Losing ace Tarik Skubal to an elbow injury is a major blow.
The White Sox (19-21) have been a pleasant surprise. They had one of the lowest win totals in the AL at 64.5 and finished the first quarter of the season a smidge below .500. Rookie Munetaka Murakami has been electric with 15 home runs and 29 RBI. The Japanese power hitter is just one dinger behind Judge for the league lead.
The Kansas City Royals (19-22) are the tale of two teams. Their home/road splits tell their true story. They have the second-worst away record in the AL (6-12), but boast the best home record (13-10) in the AL Central. Only the Yankees and Rays have more home victories.
The Twins (18-23) can score runs, but their atrocious pitching has doomed them all season. Their staff is in the bottom three and they have the second-worst bullpen in the AL (5.55 ERA, 1.61 WHIP).
AL West: Can the A’s Fend off the Mariners and Rangers?
The Seattle Mariners are the consensus favorite to win the AL West in consecutive seasons at +130, followed by the Texas Rangers (+210), A’s (+340), Houston Astros (+1000), and L.A. Angels (+5000).
The A’s (21-19) continue to play at their temporary ballpark in Sacramento while they eagerly wait for their new stadium in Las Vegas to finish construction. The A’s lack a home-field advantage (8-8), but they make up for it on the road with an AL-best 13 away wins.
The A’s lead the AL West, but bookies and bettors remain skeptical. Their early success seems unsustainable. Their starting rotation posted only seven quality starts, and their unreliable bullpen is ranked fifth-worst (4.57 ERA, 1.45 WHIP).
The division crown will come down to whichever team snaps out of their first-quarter hitting funk. Will it be the Mariners or the Rangers?
The Mariners (19-22) are anchored by strong starting pitching (19 quality starts) and a staff that’s in the top 4 in ERA and WHIP. However, they look lost at the plate, ranked dead last in hitting (.229) with the second most strikeouts in the AL. Cal Raleigh, last year’s MVP runner-up (60 HR and 125 RBI), has been bogged down in a wicked slump with just seven HR with 18 RBI while slashing at .161/.244/.329. The Mariners hope their bats finally wake up, and Raleigh rediscovers his stroke.
The Rangers (19-21) are barely any better at the plate, ranked in the bottom five in hitting (.234). They also lack power with only 27 home runs, which is tied for the third-lowest. Their pitching staff, the third best in the AL, has been consistent and reliable. When they hold a late lead, they rarely relinquish it thanks to the best bullpen in the AL (2.80 ERA, 1.20 WHIP).
We expected the Angels to be basement dwellers this season, so it’s a bit of a shocker that the Astros and Angels had the same record (16-25) through the first 41 games. The Astros were projected to win 87 games this season, but they’re haunted by the worst pitching staff in the AL (5.57 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 54 HR). Their bullpen has been an utter disaster and the worst in baseball (6.05 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 34 HRs).
World Series and Pennant Futures
The two-time defending World Series champion Dodgers are the betting favorite to pull off a rare threepeat at +190, according to BetMGM. The Yankees (+525) are the second favorite, followed by the Atlanta Braves (+1000) and the Chicago Cubs (+1000).
The Mariners are the second World Series favorite from the AL at +1300, even though they’re under .500. The Blue Jays, last year’s runner-up, opened the season among the title favorites. Their price dropped to +2200 after they were recently swept by the Rays.
In the AL pennant race, the Yankees (+200) are the favorite to return to the World Series for the second time in three seasons. The other AL pennant contenders are the Mariners (+475), Tigers (+1000), Rangers (+1000), Blue Jays (+1200), and Rays (+1300).
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