Unfortunately, we’ve been here before. Last year, as a matter of fact. And too many times of late.
“Here,” in this instance, is the Preakness Stakes, the second jewel of Thoroughbred racing’s Triple Crown, which NBC/Peacock televises at approximately 3:50 p.m. PT Saturday from Laurel Park in Maryland. We’ll get to the change in venue in a moment.
Before that, we need to mention that the Preakness is a race that—once upon a time—used to be the linchpin event of the Triple Crown. Win the Kentucky Derby, then win the Preakness and—as the kids say—the stuff be real.
Unfortunately, that scenario bears little resemblance to reality these days. Five days after she became the first female trainer to win the Derby, Cherie DeVaux, the trainer of Derby winner Golden Tempo, announced her charge wouldn’t run the Preakness. She issued a statement saying, “We believe the best decision for him moving forward is to give him a little more time following such a tremendous effort. His health, happiness, and long-term future will always remain our top priority.”
That announcement over social media was almost expected. This marks the fifth time since 2018 and the fourth time in the last six years that the Derby winner blew off the Preakness. It happened in 2022 (Rich Strike) and last year with Sovereignty, who came back five weeks after his Derby win to capture the Belmont Stakes.
That’s where we expect to find Golden Tempo next, along with many of the horses we saw in that Derby. Only three: surprise third-place finisher Ocelli, Incredibolt (6th), and Robusta (14th) wheel back on two weeks rest for the Preakness.
Preakness Power
So what about this 151st Preakness Stakes? Why should we watch?
Well, while the Derby winner isn’t there, a full field of 14 is, giving this year’s edition the largest Preakness field since 2011. That’s one of numerous storylines that don’t involve a possible Triple Crown, starting with a different venue. The race moves from longtime home Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore to sister track Laurel Park. That, while Pimlico undergoes $400 million in needed renovations to a facility that was falling apart.
This puts an interesting plot twist to handicapping. Laurel Park rarely runs 1 3/16-mile races—the Preakness distance. The finish line will be further up the stretch, 330 feet shorter than what you find at Pimlico.
This should reinforce the Preakness penchant for front-running speed prevailing. Thirteen of the last 17 Preakness champions were in the front half of the field after the first half mile, and 10 of the last 17 winners were in the first three spots. Three of the last four winners: Seize the Grey (2024), National Treasure (2023), and Early Voting (2022) were in the top three at the half-mile mark.
That streak was broken by Journalism last year, who came from six lengths back to nip Gosger. The colt also broke another recent trend by winning as the even-money favorite, making Journalism the first favorite to win since Justify in 2018.
Preakness Pace
This leads us into another plot twist about this year’s field. Six of the 14 colts in the field are either pace-setters or pace-pressers. Another four are stalkers. That means 10 of the 14 colts either need, want, or want to be near the lead. We could see a quick pace that would open matters up for closers.
This would be a novelty. There hasn’t been a deep closer win the Preakness since Exaggerator in 2016. And he needed a sloppy track to do it.
So, who do we look to here? Start with Incredibolt, who is one of three 5-1 second choices on the morning line. He was only four lengths behind Golden Tempo in the Derby and should have a less-stressful trip here, especially if the early pace is fast. The Bolt d’Oro colt has two victories on the Derby trail: the Grade 3 Street Sense and the Virginia Derby. He checks all the boxes of a winner: form, foundation, speed, and style, and likely won’t go off near 5-1.
Neither will co-second choice Taj Mahal, who comes into the Preakness not only undefeated in three races, but undefeated at Laurel Park. Maryland’s great hope is also trained by Brittany Russell, who wants to draft off DeVaux’s success and become the first woman trainer to win the Preakness. The Nyquist colt earned his spot in the field by dismantling the Federico Tesio Stakes by 8 ¼ lengths, and while that’s never been a predictor of Preakness success, Taj Mahal’s recent workouts have been spectacular. He’s fired five consecutive bullet workouts and is clearly on the ascendancy.
Your morning-line favorite is another Nyquist colt: Iron Honor (9-2). The lightly raced gets ace rider Flavien Prat—who won the 2021 Preakness aboard Rombaure—after a brutal trip led to a seventh-place finish in a weak Wood Memorial. Iron Honor’s pressing style, his aggressive and oft-fractious nature, and the expected race pace all bode ill for winning, but a board spot is possible.
Others to watch are Chip Honcho (5-1), Ocelli (6-1), and sleepers Corona de Oro (30-1), Talkin (20-1), and Crupper (30-1). These, in some combination, belong on your exotic vertical tickets.
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