The first thing you lock on to when looking at the TPC River Highlands, the site of this week’s PGA Tour stop—the Travelers Championship—is the length. Or lack thereof. River Highlands measures only 6,844 yards at par-70. It’s the second shortest course on the PGA Tour.
The second thing you lock into is Jim Furyk’s name. It’s prominent not only because Furyk wasn’t a bomber off the tee, but because of his final-round 58 that brought him the 2016 title. That’s the lowest ever 18-hole score carded in a PGA Tour event. And yet all that did for Furyk was vault him from 70th to a tie for fifth, three shots behind winner Russell Knox.
Birdies Galore
So River Highlands is a birdiefest, right? And anyone can win there, right?
Well, yes.
The average winning score in the five previous editions is nearly 20-under-par. Since Furyk took a blowtorch to the course in 2016, the winning scores have hovered between 15-under and 23-under. That record 23-under score came from Keegan Bradley in 2023, the first of two victories in a three-year span for the New England native. He won last year’s event at a more pedestrian 15-under.
Because of that short length, River Highlands is not a bomber’s paradise. It’s a thinker’s paradise. Course management and connect-the-dots golf, not crushing power, is the way you navigate River Highlands.
Why isn’t it hard to discern? The tight, tree-lined course and thick rough make discretion the better part of valor off the tee. Precision is paramount at River Highlands, which is why you find a strong dose of iron play among the winners. This is especially crucial with the wedges, because River Highland’s last line of defense is small, multi-tiered greens that punish wayward approaches. You can fire at pins, but miss, and you’re facing some ungodly up-and-downs.
So, the stats that matter this week are Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Birdie or Better Percentage, and Strokes Gained: Around the Green.
With that, who are we targeting this week?
Justin Thomas (+2200 to Win at BetMGM)
Yes, we’re climbing a bit out on a form-laden limb with this one, because Thomas has had one victory since the 2022 PGA Championship. But if it’s form you like, you’ll find fewer choices on this board—outside the de facto favorite and 2024 champion Scottie Scheffler—with better form and function here.
Justin Thomas comes into River Highlands with five consecutive top-20 finishes (which makes him a slam-dunk for that wager). He’s also gained true strokes across all categories during this run.
But wait. There’s more. Thomas also arrives with three consecutive top-10 finishes at River Highlands. He’s gained true strokes on approach in his past three trips and was 12th in true strokes gained: putting at last week’s U.S. Open. Thomas ranks ninth on tour in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 24th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, and 41st in Birdie or Better Percentage, converting nearly 33 percent of his opportunities.
We love Thomas at +225 for his fourth consecutive top-10 as well.
Collin Morikawa (+3000 to Win at BetMGM)
Admit it. You forgot about Colin Morikawa because, after four consecutive top-10s—including a win at Pebble Beach and a T7 in the Masters —he spent much of the spring recovering from a back injury. We’re here to remind you that you’re now getting one of the world’s best players on the ascendancy.
Morikawa finished T17 at the U.S. Open last week, dancing around on the fringes of contention largely through gaining 5.3 strokes off the tee and on approach. And speaking of SG: Approach, Morikawa ranks second on the Tour. He’s 19th in Greens in Regulation at 68.78%.
Getting Morikawa on the ascendancy comes with a reinvigorated putter, which has traditionally been the gaping hole in his resume. Don’t confuse it with a strength yet; Morikawa is 88th in SG: Putting, but he’s gained strokes in six of his past eight starts, is fourth in Birdie Average (4.40 per round), and sixth in Birdie or Better Percentage (24.87%).
Morikawa’s form at River Highlands has been all over the place. He went from a missed cut in 2023 to a T13 at 16-under—complete with a second-round 63—to T42 at 1-under last year. But we can’t pass up this kind of box-checker on this course.
Brian Harman (+5500 to Win and +375 Top-10 at BetMGM)
On the surface, Brian Harman looks like your typical long-shot flier. Let’s immediately disabuse you of that notion by telling you the 2023 Open Championship winner (which we predicted in this space) has eight top-10 finishes in 14 starts at River Highlands. His last five starts here produced an eighth, T9, T2, T8, and T5.
Harman has been the 36-hole and 54-hole leader in this event. He’s done everything except win here, despite that T2 (by three shots) to Bradley and a third in 2015, when he finished one shot out of the Bubba Watson–Paul Casey playoff.
Harman’s best finish this year was 11th at The Players back in March, but he’s made nine of his last 10 cuts and had an 11-tournament cuts-made streak snapped at The Memorial. And make no mistake; Harman’s strokes-gained stats aren’t the reason we’re going all-in here, because his No 70 ranking in Strokes Gained: Around the Green is his best in any key SG category.
You’re going all-in on Harman because this is the definition of a “horse for a course.” And 55-1 is too good to pass up for when he does win here.
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