With three weeks remaining in the NFL season, several division races in the AFC are still up for grabs. Division winners will secure a home game in the first round of the playoffs. The losers could miss the playoffs completely. The New England Patriots (11-3) are trying to fend off the Buffalo Bills (10-4) in the AFC East. The Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4) pulled ahead of the Houston Texans (9-5) in the AFC South. The AFC North, the NFL’s smashmouth division, could come down to the final game of the season with the Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6) and Baltimore Ravens (7-7) vying for first place.
AFC East: Patriots -250, Bills +200
The Patriots looked like they were running away with the AFC East title until they lost to the Bills in Week 15. The Bills made things interesting with a fierce comeback victory on the road after falling behind 21-0.
According to The Athletic, the Patriots have a 71 percent chance to win the division, and the Bills have a 29 percent shot. In a recent update by BetMGM, the Patriots are the consensus favorite to win the AFC East at -250 odds. The Bills are +200 odds to win the AFC East for a sixth season in a row. There’s a potential path to another divisional crown, but they will need help with two divisional losses by the Patriots.
The Bills have not locked up a playoff berth, but they’d secure the #6 seed as an AFC Wild Card team if the season ended today. The Bills play their final road game of the season against the Cleveland Browns in Week 16. The Ravens host the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles in Week 17 before they end the season with a home game against the last-place New York Jets.
The Patriots square off against the Ravens in Baltimore in Week 16 before ending the season with two divisional games. The Jets host the Patriots in Week 17, and the Miami Dolphins visit Foxboro in the final game of the season.
The Patriots are also fighting for a potential #1 seed in the AFC, which would secure them a first-round bye. The Denver Broncos (12-2) are currently the #1 seed in the AFC, and the Patriots are #2. BetMGM offers a prop bet to predict the top seed in the AFC playoffs. The Broncos are -275 odds to secure the #1 seed, and the Patriots are +600.
AFC South: Jaguars -145, Texans +125
The Athletic updated their postseason projections, and the Jaguars have a 61 percent chance to win the AFC South. The Texans have a 38 percent chance. According to BetMGM, the Jaguars are the betting favorite to win the division at -145 odds.
After a sluggish start under rookie head coach Liam Coen, the Jaguars offense is now humming. They won five in a row and six out of their last seven games. During their recent winning streak, the Jaguars posted a margin of victory of 19.8 points. In four blowout victories, they won by an average of 24 points.
The Jaguars will face a tough test against the Broncos in Denver in Week 16. They hit the road to play the Indianapolis Colts in Week 17 before hosting the Tennessee Titans in the last game of the season.
The Texans seek a third consecutive AFC South title, and they’re +125 odds to win the division. The Texans have a better divisional record than the Jaguars at 4-1, which will give them an edge in a tiebreaker.
Houston stumbled out of the gate by losing their first three games. In early November, they were 3-5 before turning around their season. The Texans won six in a row, including three straight since CJ Stroud returned from a concussion.
The Texans host the Las Vegas Raiders (2-12) in Week 16. They hit the road to play the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 17. They end the season with a home game against the Colts.
If the season ended today, the Texans would sneak into the AFC Wild Card as the #7 seed. They control their own destiny, but they cannot afford to lose any more games, as they could miss the playoffs completely.
The Colts (8-6) are currently on the Wild Card bubble in eighth place with a 12 percent chance to make the playoffs. The Colts nearly upset the Seattle Seahawks in Week 15 after Philip Rivers came out of retirement. With a rejuvenated Rivers at the helm, you cannot count the Colts out just yet. The Colts have remaining home games against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 16 and the Jaguars in Week 17. They have one final home game against the Texans in Week 18.
AFC North: Steelers -135, Ravens +115
If the season ended today, the Steelers would win the AFC North title and secure the #4 seed as the division winner with the worst record. The Ravens are still alive, but winning the AFC North is their best path to the postseason.
The Steelers, who last won the AFC North in 2020, are the betting favorite to win the division at -135 odds. They have two more road games against the Detroit Lions in Week 16 and the Cleveland Browns in Week 17. They host the Ravens to conclude the season, which could have serious implications.
The Ravens looked like they were dead in the water after a 1-5 start, but then won five in a row to get back on track. Baltimore recently hit a speed bump with back-to-back divisional losses, but recovered with a shutout victory against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 15.
The Ravens won the AFC North in consecutive seasons, and they’re +115 odds to win a third-straight divisional title. Baltimore faces a tougher schedule than the Steelers in the final three weeks of the season. They host the Patriots in Week 16 and visit the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field to play the Green Bay Packers in Week 17. In Week 18, they face one more divisional opponent when they head to Pittsburgh to battle the Steelers.
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