Breaking Down the 2024 Final Four Favorites: Expert Picks and Analysis

March Madness is finally here, and BetQL is diving headfirst into the madness with Final Four picks for the 2024 NCAA tournament. Their seasoned editorial staff has been hard at work analyzing the matchups, crunching the numbers and breaking down the bracket to bring you their top Final Four picks.

Predicting which teams will emerge victorious and make it to the Final Four is no easy feat. From traditional powerhouses to Cinderella stories, we’ve sifted through the chaos to identify the teams with the best chance of making it to Phoenix.

Whether you’re a passionate fan cheering on your alma mater or a savvy bettor looking for an edge, these Final Four picks are backed by expert analysis and in-depth research. Plus, BetQL’s college hoops model will be making picks on every single game throughout the tournament to help you pick (and avoid) those bracket-busters.

So, get ready to witness the highs, the lows, and the unforgettable moments of March Madness as we unveil our top selections for the Final Four. It’s time to buckle up for the thrill ride of the NCAA Tournament—let’s do this!

2024 NCAA Tournament Final Four Picks

Dan Karpuc: No. 1 UConn (+100, BetRivers), No. 2 Arizona (+340, FanDuel), No. 3 Creighton (+650, DraftKings), No. 3 Kentucky (+700, FanDuel)

I have No. 1 Connecticut Huskies repeating as national champions in my bracket, and their path to the Final Four is relatively easy. I have them beating No. 16 Stetson, No. 9 Northwestern, No. 5 San Diego State and No. 3 Illinois to advance to the Final Four.

The Huskies finished the regular and conference tournament seasons ranked No. 1 overall in KenPom’s efficiency rankings, including No. 1 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and No. 11 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. In my opinion, there are a bunch of very good college teams this year, but just one great team and that’s the defending champs.

This is a better team than last year’s, too, with Tristen Newton emerging as a go-to superstar talent, transfer Cam Spencer performing at an all-conference level, efficient wing Alex Karaban on the outside, Donovan Clingan as an NBA Draft lottery prospect and freshman (and fellow NBA Draft prospect) Stephon Castle also contributing. On the season (on average), UConn outscored their opponents by 17.0 points (second-best in nation), shot an average of 9.7% better than their opponents (third-best), outrebounded their opponents by 8.4 (10th-best) and out-assisted their opponents by 8.1 (second-best). This is the best all-around team in the country.


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Arizona Outliers

There’s a lot of value grabbing the Arizona Wildcats, one of the best teams in the nation, at +340 odds. I have No. 2 Arizona beating No. 15 Longwood, No. 10 Nevada, No. 6 Clemson and No. 1 North Carolina to advance to the Final Four. The Wildcats finished the season ranked sixth overall in KenPom’s Efficiency rankings and are led by Wooden Award nominee Caleb Love, who is very experienced from his time at UNC. The Wildcats ranked third in the nation in points per game (87.9), second in assists per game (18.6), outscored their opponents by an average of 15.6 (fifth-best) and out-rebounded their opponents by an average of 10.5 (third-best). The Wildcats love to get out on the break and get easy points in transition, which is one of the reasons why I like them to get past UNC; Arizona ranked second in the country in fast-break points with 16.42 per contest!

Bluejay Way

I love No. 3 Creighton Bluejays and think they’re going to be the victor of a blown-up region. I have them beating No. 14 Akron, No. 11 Oregon, No. 2 Tennessee and No. 9 TCU to advance to the Final Four. I can’t express how much I love the Bluejays in this region; with Baylor Scheierman (18.4 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 4.0 APG), Trey Alexander (17.6 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 4.7 APG) and Ryan Kalkbrenner (17.1 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 3.0 BPG) as a three-headed monster, this is Greg McDermott’s best Creighton team, in my opinion. Creighton is ranked 11th overall in KenPom’s rankings, which is better than all of their opponents in my bracket (except Tennessee).

Kentucky Countdown

I think No. 3 Kentucky has the tools to make a run and win the South. I have them beating No. 14 Oakland, No. 11 North Carolina State, No. 2 Marquette and No. 4 Duke to advance to the Final Four. Talent has never been an issue under John Calipari and this year is no exception. Interestingly, though, this team is led by senior guard Antonio Reeves (20.0 PPG) and senior forward Tre Mitchell (10.6 PPG, 7.0 RPG), who have guided freshmen Rob Dillingham (15.4 PPG in 23.1 MIN), the potential No. 1-overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, Reed Sheppard (12.8 PPG) and D.J. Wagner (10.3 PPG).

UK finished the regular and conference tournament seasons ranked 19th in KenPom’s efficiency rankings, but ranked fifth in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Overall, the Wildcats scored an average of 89.4 points per game this season, second-best in all of Division I, and did so shooting a blistering 41.2% from 3-point range, best in the entire nation. Oh, and they also averaged 6.3 blocks per game, which ranked third in the nation. There are some questions about this team on the defensive end, but that speaks to their athleticism.


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Midwest Massacre

Brad Pinkerton: No. 1 UConn (+100, BetRivers), No. 1 UNC (+430, FanDuel), No. 3 Kentucky (+700, FanDuel), No. 2 Tennessee (+350, BetMGM)

Let’s start from the bottom here with perennial letdowns Tennessee. Though I don’t trust Rick Barnes, I trust Purdue even less, and the Midwest region is a complete crap shoot after the No. 2 Vols.

I expect whoever makes it out of the Midwest to run into a Kentucky team that is finally healthy and gaining confidence and momentum. NBA prospect Rob Dillingham will put on a show and lead John Calipari’s Wildcats past Marquette, Houston and Tennessee (again) and into the title game. Kentucky is an outstanding value to make the Final 4 at +700 on FanDuel.

On the other side of the bracket, I expect UConn and UNC to take care of business against some very talented but very flawed teams in their respective brackets. I do think there will be some major upsets in those regions, but the Huskies and Heels will be left standing when the dust settles.

However, UConn will continue its dominance, dispatching UNC and then Kentucky to go back-to-back for the first time since Florida in 2006-07.

 


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Huskies Fever

Lucy Burdge: UConn -120, UNC +300, Purdue +150, Houston +125 (BetMGM)

I like UConn to win the whole tournament, so they’re my lock for the Final Four. Their dominance is undeniable and I absolutely see them going all the way.

I’ve also liked UNC for a while and I see them returning to the Final Four after missing last year’s tournament. RJ Davis and Armando Bacot led this team to the title game in 2022, so this is familiar territory for them.

As for Purdue, the path for the Boilermakers to make it to the Final Four is very plausible. I don’t think this Zach Edey-led team is going to be eliminated by a No. 16 seed again this season as they did last year, but I don’t see them getting by Houston in the Final Four.

If the 30-4 Cougars continue playing the way they did in the regular season, they can very feasibly make the title game. They have Big 12 Player of the Year Jamal Shead and they can certainly pick it back up after losing by 28 points to Iowa State in the Big 12 final. I have no doubt Houston will dominate through the tournament — that is until it meets UConn in the championship.

Read Pauly McGuire‘s sleeper picks for March Madness here.

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History Playbook

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February 5, 2012 — The Giants rally past the Patriots 21-17 in Super Bowl XLVI. It's a rematch of Super Bowl XLII four years earlier where the Giants upset the Patriots 14-10, ending New England's hopes for a perfect 19-0 season. In 2012, trailing 17-15, New York has the ball on their own 12-yard line with 3:46 remaining. Eli Manning connects with Mario Manningham for a 38-yard completion. The Giants advance to the New England six-yard line where Ahmad Bradshaw scores with 57 seconds left.

On This Day In Sports History

February 3, 2002 — The Patriots win the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history by beating the heavily favored St. Louis Rams 20-17. The New England quarterback is second year pro Tom Brady. The Patriots win on a 48-yard field goal by Adam Vinatieri as time expires.​