The brackets are finally out, so now it’s time to figure out which teams could play the role of Cinderella in this year’s March Madness men’s college basketball tournament.
Since 2006, at least four #11 seeds punched their ticket all the way to the Final Four including George Mason (2006), VCU (2011), Loyola-Chicago (2018), and UCLA (2021).
This year’s #11 seeds are New Mexico (26-9), Oregon (23-11), North Carolina State (22-14), and Duquesne (24-11).
#11 New Mexico (WEST)
New Mexico won four games in four days to punch their ticket with an automatic bid by winning the Mountain West conference tournament. In the MWC championship game, the Lobos defeated San Diego State who went to the Final Four last year.
New Mexico runs an up-tempo offense under head coach Richard Pitino. The Lobos average 81.5 points per game and are led by guards Jaelen House (16.1 ppg) and Jamal Mashburn, Jr. (14.4 ppg).
New Mexico is +250 odds to advance to the Sweet 16 and +2500 odds to make it to the Final Four according to BetMGM.
#11 Oregon (MIDWEST)
Oregon stumbled into the postseason by losing three out of their last five conference games in the Pac-12. The Ducks got hot at the right time and won three games in three days to claim the Pac-12 conference tournament. All three of those victories came against teams that had recently defeated them including UCLA, Arizona, and Colorado.
Oregon is led by a pair of seniors: center N’Faly Dante (16.2 ppg, 8.8 rebounds) and guard Jermaine Couisnard (15.4 ppg). Couisnard is a high-volume shooter who dropped 39 points in a loss against Arizona in early March.
Oregon is +450 odds to advance to the Sweet 16 and +5000 odds to advance to the Final Four according to BetMGM.
#11 North Carolina State (SOUTH)
NC State began the season 11-3 before they hit the skids in January and finished the regular season with a 6-11 clip. They lost four games in a row and were 2-7 in their last nine games before the start of the ACC tournament.
The Wolfpack pulled off a near impossible feat with an astonishing five victories in five days to punch their ticket to the big dance. They toppled #11 Duke in the quarterfinals and upset #4 North Carolina to win the ACC championship and secure an automatic bid.
Four different players led the Wolfpack in scoring during the ACC tournament, and forward Mohamed Diarra was a rebounding machine who averaged 12 rebounds per game. Senior guard DJ Horne is NC State’s best scorer who averages 16.9 ppg while shooting 41.3% from 3-point range.
NC State look like they got back on track with some impressive wins over ranked teams in the last week. They are +500 odds to win their first two games and advance to the Sweet 16. BetMGM also has NC State to make it to the Final Four at +4000 odds.
#11 Duquesne (EAST)
Duquesne ended a 47-year drought with their first appearance in March Madness since 1977. The Dukes are led by Keith Dambrot who’s was most known as LeBron James’ coach in high school.
Duquesne won eight games in a row including four games in four days to secure the Atlantic 10 conference championship. Their backcourt is dangerous and anchored by senior guards Dae Dae Grant (16.9 ppg) and Jimmy Clark III (15.3 ppg).
Duquesne is the biggest long shot among the #11 seeds to advance to the Sweet 16 at +900 odds according to BetMGM.
Keep an Eye on Those Pesky #12 Seed
This year’s #12 seeds are UAB (23-11), James Madison (31-3), Grand Canyon (29-4), and McNeese State (30-3). Even though none of last year’s #12 seeds upset a #5 seed, picking a #12 seed in a first-round upset is a popular strategy. Since 2013, there were three instances when three out of the four #12 seeds won the first-round games in 2013, 2014, and 2019.
According to BetMGM, Grand Canyon has the best chance out of all of the #12 seeds to advance to the Sweet 16 at +500 odds. James Madison and McNeese State are both +700 to win two games and secure a trip to the Sweet 16, and UAB is a long shot at +2200.
#13 Seed Sleepers
Over the last decade, eight #13 seeds pulled off upsets over the #4 seed but only one of those squads advanced to the Sweet 16.
Since 2018, six #13 seeds won their first-round games including #13 Furman who knocked off #4 Virginia last year.
This year’s #13 seeds are Yale (22-9), Vermont (28-6), Samford (29-5), and Charleston (27-7). Yale secured an automatic berth to March Madness with a stunning buzzer-beater against Brown over the weekend to win the Ivy League championship.
All the #13 seeds are long shots to make it to the Sweet 16 according to BetMGM including Yale (+1000), Vermont (+1050), Samford (+1150), and Charleston (+1400).
Check out BetQL‘s expert analysis and Favorites for March Madness here.
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