Netflix will host an NFL doubleheader on Christmas which they hope will become an annual yuletide tradition. Christmas falls on a Wednesday, so we’ll get an unusual double dip of football with the Kansas City Chiefs visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Houston Texans hosting the Baltimore Ravens.
Even though the schedule was set months in advance, Netflix got lucky with the Christmas matchups. These teams are either currently in first place in their respective division or have a chance to move into first place with a victory on Christmas. These games have postseason implications and AFC seeding on the line so expect some competitive action. There’s also a chance these teams meet again in the postseason.
Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5)
Kick-off: 10 am PT
Point Spread: Chiefs -2.5
Total: 43.5 O/U
The Chiefs have the best record in the NFL at 14-1 but need to win one more game to clinch the #1 seed in the AFC ahead of the Buffalo Bills (12-3). The Chiefs lost their only game of the season in Buffalo in Week 11. Securing the top seed on Christmas will be clutch because it could give Andy Reid a chance to rest his starters for two weeks in a row including Week 18 and a first-round bye in the playoffs. Patrick Mahomes is nursing two ankle injuries so any extra rest will be welcomed before they attempt to make NFL history by becoming the first team to win the Super Bowl in three consecutive seasons.
The two-time defending Super Bowl champions begin the Netflix doubleheader when they hit the road to visit the Steelers. This is the second year in a row the Chiefs will play on Christmas. In 2023, Christmas fell on a Monday, and the Chiefs were slated to appear on Monday Night Football.
The Chiefs have been on a tear and lost only once since the Las Vegas Raiders upset them last Christmas. They are 20-1 in that stretch spanning 17 regular season games and four postseason games including Super Bowl 58.
Speedy wide receiver Hollywood Brown appeared in his first game for the Chiefs this season after recovering from a shoulder injury. He caught five passes for 45 yards in the victory against the Texans in Week 16. The return of Brown gives Mahomes another valuable offensive weapon.
The Steelers are hopeful that star wide receiver George Pickens will play on Christmas after missing three games with a hamstring injury. The offense, especially quarterback Russell Wilson, looked bad without Pickens. With Pickens sidelined, the Steelers went 1-2 and Wilson averaged only 167 passing yards per game. The Steelers averaged only 15 points per game in the last two weeks and lost both games. In the six previous games with a healthy Pickens, Wilson averaged 271 passing yards and led the Steelers to a 5-1 record.
The Steelers are currently the #3 seed in the AFC. A win for the Steelers on Christmas would keep them in first place in the AFC North. They hold down first place in the division despite having the same record as the Ravens. They missed a chance to lock up the division title in Week 16 when they lost to the Ravens.
Betting the Under in total points is always in consideration during a short week. Both these teams played on Saturday in Week 16, so they’ll face a short turnaround and have only four days to prepare for battle on Christmas. The Chiefs have the third-best scoring defense in the NFL that allows only 18.5 ppg. The Steelers are tied for sixth allowing 19.9 ppg.
Santa’s Pick: Chiefs -2.5 and the under
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Baltimore Ravens (10-5) at Houston Texans (9-6)
Kick-off: 1:30 pm PT
Point Spread: Ravens -4
Total: 46.5 O/U
If the Ravens win on Christmas and the Steelers lose, the Ravens will secure first place in the AFC North and seize the #3 seed. The Ravens are currently #5 as a Wild Card team, but they could swap places with the Steelers with a victory over the Texans and a Steelers’ loss against the Chiefs.
The Texans clinched consecutive AFC South divisional titles last week and locked up a home game for Wild Card Weekend. They’re currently the #4 seed in the AFC playoffs. Their expected opponent will be whoever finishes in second place in the AFC North, so either the Ravens or Steelers.
The Ravens are the third-highest scoring team in the NFL averaging 30.1 ppg. If you’re an NFL totals bettor, the Ravens are the best team in the NFL hitting the Over with a 12-3 clip this season.
The Ravens lead the NFL with 423.7 total yards per game. Their rushing attack is ranked #2 overall behind running back Derrick Henry and dual-threat quarterback Lamar Jackson. They’re also ranked #5 in passing yards. Jackson tossed a career-high 37 touchdowns in 15 games.
The Ravens have the best rushing defense in the NFL allowing only 83.1 yards per game, but their pass defense is atrocious and ranked second-worst allowing 254.9 yards per game.
Texans RB Joe Mixon tallied six 100-yard games after missing three games earlier this season with an ankle injury. However, he rushed 100-plus yards just once in the last four games. In those three subpar performances, he tallied 102 total yards and averaged 34 yards on 13.3 carries per game.
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The Texans offense is in a tough spot. They will have trouble running the ball, but attacking the Ravens’ lackluster secondary gives them their best chance of winning. Quarterback CJ Stroud has been inconsistent in his second year compared to an outstanding performance as a rookie last season. He tossed only five interceptions in 2023 but threw 11 this season. Stroud will have to avoid turnovers and outgun Jackson if the Texans want to beat the Ravens.
The Texans were already thin at wide receiver before Tank Dell sustained a gruesome knee injury in Week 16. The Texans lost Stefon Diggs to a season-ending ACL injury in Week 8. Nico Collins missed several games with a hamstring injury, but he’s currently their best option at WR. They’ll need to lean on veteran Robert Woods and second-year player Xavier Hutchinson to make big plays if they expect to keep up with the high-octane Ravens.
Santa’s Pick: Ravens -4
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