Welcome to the opening salvos of Rivalry Weeks, which warms up this week with games like Duke-North Carolina and Cal-Stanford before plunging headlong into the blood rivalries just as families are recovering from their Thanksgiving Day food comas.
The Gridiron Guru isn’t putting those games among this week’s bets. But because we’re all about opportunity, it wouldn’t be right to mention those two without throwing out a wager—especially as a Cal Golden Bears fan.
- Cal -150 on the moneyline. Yes, Stanford is one of the worst FBS teams in the country. Yes, the Cal Bears have won five of the last six and covered ATS in four of those. But they have covered only twice in their last seven games and somehow played with their food long enough at home in last year’s Big Game to eke out a 24-23 victory, as 14.5-point favorites.
- Duke-UNC Over-51.5 points. By all metrics, this series has been about as even as it gets, with UNC holding a 6-4 edge (including four of the last five) and both ATS and the total being 5-5. Had you gotten in at the opening line of Duke -3.5, that would have been the play. But with the line now at Duke -6.5, the total offers better value.
Last week: 1-3. Season: 16-19 (ATS).
USC Seeks to Sneak Trojan Horse into Autzen
There are few more inhospitable sites for visiting teams in college football than Eugene’s Autzen Stadium, where the fans—who never stop cheering the Oregon Ducks — harass their opponents with all kinds of creative vitriol—seem like they are right on top of the visiting team’s sideline.
This is where we find the best game of the week. It’s where we find a USC Trojans team that needs to overcome the Autzen anarchy to keep its College Football Playoff hopes alive. And it’s where we find the nation’s No. 7-ranked offense (USC at 489 yards per game) and one averaging 7.4 yards per play, facing one of the nation’s most feral defenses in third-ranked Oregon.
The Ducks surrender only 235 yards a game total and boast the nation’s top pass defense, one that allows only 12.6 completions and 127 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. Pair that with an offense that also averages 7.4 yards per play, along with 475.4 yards per game (12th), 6.3 yards per rush (second), and 39 points a game (7th), and it’s easy to see why Oregon is 9-1.
And yet… the Ducks aren’t as invincible as those numbers indicate when it comes to the spread. They have covered only twice since September and are 0-2 ATS as single-digit favorites. While USC is 5-5 ATS, the Trojans have covered in three of their last five and have scored at least 21 points in every game this season. They’re catching their former Pac-12 power in an offensive lull, somewhat eased with last week’s 42-13 beating of Minnesota.
We’re not saying the Ducks will fly south here, but we’ll take that lull of Oregon scoring 21 or fewer points in three of its last five games and take the Trojans—and the points—to tame Autzen.
Best Bet: USC +9.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Cardinals Find More Problems Awaiting
The Louisville Cardinals had one job last week. One. Shake off an incomprehensible overtime loss at home to Cal as 18.5-point favorites and beat a thoroughly mediocre Clemson team as two-point favorites. And the Cardinals lost the plot. Along with their third game of the season, knocking them out of the ACC title race once and for all.
Now, an SMU Mustangs team that is coming off a bye awaits at home. A Mustangs team that is still alive for the ACC title game—provided it beats Louisville and Cal next week and gets help from others in what is a chewy, nougaty cluster atop or nearly atop the conference ladder.
This is what awaits Louisville: an SMU team unbeaten in conference home games this season. An SMU team that won five of its last six games and is 15th in the nation in stuffing the run, limiting teams to 102 yards a game and a miserly 2.9 yards per carry (11th).
That puts pressure on Louisville QB Miller Moss, who—as we pointed out last week—is not a QB who can carry a team past a certain point. And Moss—as we’ve seen the last two weeks—has reached his Peter Principle point. He’s arrived at his level of incompetence. To be fair, the Cardinals’ offensive line has let Moss down. It ranks 125th in Stuff Rate, a measurement of how well a team dominates the line of scrimmage.
Put all that in the mixer, and we’re taking the Mustangs to do their one job, win their sixth game in their last seven, and dominate across the board.
Best Bet: SMU -3.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Yellow Jackets Feel the Sting At Home
Given the madness mentioned above, here lies one of the most pivotal games on the ACC calendar, one featuring a Pitt Panthers team that adds to the conference chaos against a Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets team that embodies chaos every time it takes the field.
The Yellow Jackets are 9-1, with a loss to NC State three weeks ago serving as the lone blemish. But that blemish illustrates why Georgia Tech is ripe for the upset; the Yellow Jackets surrendered 48 points and 583 yards to the 11th-best team in the ACC. Two weeks earlier, Georgia Tech surrendered 34 points and 537 yards to a 1-10 Boston College team.
That the Yellow Jackets rolled up 628 yards in that game and boast the nation’s No. 2 offense (496.7 yards per game) and the No. 1 yards-per-play attack in the country (7.4) doesn’t detract from the inescapable conclusion that Georgia Tech’s 102nd-ranked defense is ripe for the Pitt-ing.
Pitt has won four of the last five games in this series, covering ATS each time. The Panthers rank 13th in points scored (37.2) and are second in the ACC and ninth nationally in run defense (90.3 yards allowed per game). They’ve covered in each of their seven victories, and we’re wagering they’ll cover as underdogs here.
Best Bet: Pitt +2.5 (even at BetMGM).
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