After a season dominated by Max Verstappen and his Red Bull car, many will likely breathe a sigh of relief that we are at an end to the most dominant season of any F1 driver in history. But there’s still one more opportunity for him to extend his record, pushing it to an unheard of 19 victories this season if he closes out with a win. After a victory in the last three races here (albeit following an extremely controversial win in 2021), Verstappen should come into this race with the confidence to make it four in a row.
The race in Abu Dhabi is a good place to reflect on the season behind, as well as look toward the season ahead. This being the final race of the season, it’s the last time for the reserve drivers to have an opportunity to drive and get actual track practice, so expect to see a number of them driving during the first Free Practice session on Friday. If you’re looking for a little more F1 action, this is a good session to watch to show the potential of future F1 drivers.
Familiar Faces for Top 3
The end is nigh, but not before one final race to finish the final chapter of the 2023 F1 season. Max Verstappen is unsurprisingly the favorite to win this race, sitting at -350 at BetMGM. Behind him is Lando Norris (+1200) and teammate Sergio Perez (+1400). Barring anything catastrophic happening during the practice sessions or qualifying, expect Verstappen to be another safe bet this weekend.
The three drivers mentioned above are also the three with the best odds to finish top 3. ESPN Bet has Verstappen (-800), Norris (-135), and Perez (-120) the most likely to finish on the podium. However, with the battle for second in the constructors on the line, don’t count out incredible performances from drivers like Charles Leclerc (+175), Lewis Hamilton (+175), Carlos Sainz (+300), or George Russell (+300). Everything is on the line for these drivers, and I wouldn’t count on them going quietly into the night.
To Finish Top 6:
Max Verstappen: -900
Lando Norris: -400
Sergio Perez: -400
Charles Leclerc: -350
Lewis Hamilton: -350
Carlos Sainz: -250
George Russell: -187
Oscar Piastri: +100
Fernando Alonso: +200
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
If you’re looking for a long shot bet to make, both Alpine drivers are sitting at +1000 to make it into the top 6. Both are more than capable of running a clean race and making it into the top 6. However long their odds, don’t count out crashes or car trouble from any of the drivers above to give them a fighting chance.
Additionally, as will be covered later in this article, a new spec will be implemented for Daniel Ricciardo and Yuki Tsunoda in their Alpha Tauri cars. With both sitting at +225 to finish in the top 10, don’t count them out of contention just yet.
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Popular Props
The most interesting prop, and the one that will create the greatest intrigue during the race, has to be Constructors Champion (without Red Bull). The race has narrowed to 4 points for 2nd place in the constructors standings, with Ferrari 4 points behind Mercedes. After a dominant showing from the Ferrari team over the last few races, and with no signs of them slowing down, they are the favorite to win the coveted second place at -125, while Mercedes is at an even +100 (via Caesars Sportsbook).
Another bet to watch would be the winning margin. Though the last few races have been awfully close for Verstappen, Abu Dhabi has a history of large margins of victory. The Over/Under at Caesars sits at 9.5 seconds, and it seems too sweet not to smash the Over on this one.
After a race that saw two safety cars in Las Vegas, we visit a track that is much more predictable, begging the question of how many safety cars will be used in Abu Dhabi. BetRivers.com has the odds for once to be used at -134, with none being used at all sitting at -103. During a weekend that means a whole lot for a few teams on the grid, fighting for those last few points to move them up in the yearly ranking, will they decide to throw caution to the wind and fight wantonly for position? I would say bet on a safety car some time during the 58 laps. This race could be the difference between millions of dollars of prize money for the teams.
A Look Ahead
This race will also see a few small upgrades on the cars. The adjustments will likely be more minor, as they are looking to test and optimize for their 2024 cars. Teams that will be bringing small parts upgrades are Alfa Romeo and Red Bull, mainly testing for next year’s upgrades, and to see what they will need to change during offseason testing.
However, a large upgrade package is rumored to be coming to the Alpha Tauri. Their sister team, Red Bull, has lent them several design ideas,. The most notable being a suspension change during the Singapore race. This upgrade will consist of multiple parts, and potentially a floor upgrade. That should help them reach a higher top speed and reduce some of the drag that has been holding them back all year. Will it be enough to boost them into a points finish?
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