The Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys host their annual Thanksgiving home games as part of the NFL’s Turkey Day tripleheader that also includes Thursday Night Football action.
The NFL will air another game on Black Friday this year, so there are four games to enjoy during the long holiday weekend.
Chicago Bears (4-7) at Detroit Lions (10-1)
Kick-off: Thursday 12:30 pm ET
Point Spread: Lions -10.5
Total: 48.5 O/U
Two NFC North rivals square off, but these two squads are headed in opposite directions. The Lions are riding high on a nine-game winning streak, and the Bears lost five games in a row.
The high-octane Lions are the highest-scoring team in the NFL at 32.7 ppg. Their defense is also ranked second allowing only 16.6 ppg. The well-rounded Lions are now the betting favorite to win Super Bowl 59.
The Bears with rookie quarterback Caleb Williams are tied for tenth worst offense at 20.1 ppg. Their solid defense, ranked #8 allowing just 19.7 ppg, will be tested against the dangerous Lions.
The Lions are the best betting team in the NFL with a 9-2 ATS record, and they covered the spread in eight out of their last nine games. They also covered their last two games as a double-digit spread. Meanwhile, the Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
Pauly’s Pick: Lions -10.5
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New York Giants (2-9) at Dallas Cowboys (4-7)
Kick-off: Thursday 4:30 pm ET
Point Spread: Cowboys -4
Total: 38 O/U
This ugly NFC East game will feature backup quarterbacks. Dak Prescott is out for the season with a hamstring injury, and the Cowboys turned to Cooper Rush. The Giants cut Daniel Jones but surprisingly installed third-stringer Tommy DeVito at quarterback instead of QB #2 Drew Lock. But an injury will likely sideline DeVito and Lock will get his first start with the Giants.
The Cowboys upset the Washington Commanders last week to end a five-game losing streak. Head coach Mike McCarthy is on the hot seat, and he’s desperate to keep his job so the Cowboys have more incentive to win than the freefalling Giants.
Head coach Brian Daboll is a lame duck and the Giants will fire him as soon as the season ends. The Giants lost six games in a row and they’re most likely tanking to improve their chances at securing a top quarterback prospect in the 2025 NFL Draft like Cameron Ward, Shedeur Sanders, or Jalen Milroe.
The Giants are the lowest-scoring team in the NFL at 14.8 ppg. They had four games in which they were held to seven or fewer points including DeVito’s start last week. The Cowboys are ranked in the bottom 10 in scoring (20.1 ppg), but they averaged 14 ppg. in Rush’s three starts.
Both teams are among the worst betting teams in the NFL with a 3-8 ATS record. The Under is also 8-3 for the Giants this season.
Even with two healthy quarterbacks in Week 4, both teams combined for 35 points and the Giants won 20-15. The points total on Thanksgiving is 38.
Pauly’s Pick: Under 38
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Miami Dolphins (5-6) at Green Bay Packers (8-3)
Kick-off: Thursday 8:20 pm ET
Point Spread: Packers -3
Total: 47 O/U
The Dolphins have a losing record, but won three games in a row and still have a shot at backdooring an AFC Wild Card berth if they win the rest of their games. This is a must-win spot for the Dolphins.
The NFC North is so top heavy that the Packers are 8-3 but sitting in third place in the division. The Packers only lost three games this season against the top three teams in the NFC: Eagles, Vikings, and Lions.
The Packers are only 1-4 ATS in their last five games, but they’ll have the benefit of playing a home night game on the potential frozen tundra of Lambeau Field.
Snow and below freezing temperatures are predicted for Thursday Night Football, which is problematic for a warm-weather team like the Dolphins.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is 0-4 straight up and 1-3 ATS in cold weather games under 40 degrees. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are 0-9 in their last nine games when the temperatures dip below freezing.
Here’s another interesting stat: favorites appearing on Thursday Night Football on Thanksgiving are 13-4 ATS since the NFL added a night game to the Turkey Day festivities.
Pauly’s Pick: Packers -3
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Las Vegas Raiders (2-9) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-1)
Kick-off: Friday 3 pm ET
Point Spread: Chiefs -13
Total: 42 O/U
Since 2020, Patrick Mahomes is 12-20-1 ATS when the Chiefs are a favorite by more than a touchdown. The Chiefs won all six games this season that they were a favorite by more than six points, but they’re 0-5-1 ATS.
The Chiefs beat bad teams but struggle to cover big spreads in the Mahomes era. They often do just enough to squeeze out a win but tilt backers when they don’t cover. Sharp bettors are aware of the trend to fade Mahomes when the Chiefs are a big favorite. Just last week, the Chiefs closed as a -10.5 favorite against the Carolina Panthers but needed an overtime session to win by three points.
However, the Raiders are in shambles so it’s not an automatic spot where you would back them at +13. They lost seven games in a row and have a third-string quarterback at the helm. Desmond Ridder is expected to start on the road in Arrowhead on a short week. In 17 starts with the Atlanta Falcons in 2022 and 2023, Ridder has a losing record at 8-9 as a starter.
Starting quarterback Gardner Minshew is out for the season with a fractured collar bone. Backup Aidan O’Connell is scheduled to come off the IR, but he’s still nursing a thumb injury. Meanwhile, running backs Zamir White and Alexander Mattison are both questionable.
In their first meeting in Week 8, the Chiefs won 27-20. Minshew had a good game and the Raiders put up a decent fight. They trailed by four points at the start of the fourth quarter, but fell behind by 14 points. Minshew engineered a garbage-time touchdown and the Raiders pulled off a backdoor cover as a +9 home dog.
Pauly’s Pick: Over 42
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