The penultimate race on this year’s F1 calendar has arrived. With it being the newest race on the calendar, there has been a lot of hype heading into race weekend. We break all of that down into a simple betting guide, and things to watch for during the weekend.
The weekend is finally here for the inaugural Las Vegas Grand Prix. The first GP to be hosted in the city since the Caesars Palace Grand Prix ran here in 1981 and ‘82. The buzz around the city is palpable, and while some locals have been vocal about their displeasure surrounding the additional traffic issues caused by the grand prix set up, the larger F1 community is excited by the new circuit.
This race holds some extra interest as it’s going to be much colder than a traditional race — in fact, it could be the coldest race ever run in F1 (currently held by Montreal 1978, where the temperature came in at a chilly 41°F). The cold temperatures can be terrible for the tires ability to get the proper traction, leading to a greater risk of spinning out. The track in Vegas is also not ideal for “warming up the tires” due to its lack of high-speed corners and its long straightaways.
These issues have the potential to lead to a very unpredictable race, and with it being a brand new track, the drivers are going to have to put a lot of trust in their simulator training to prepare them for the race. Without seeing how the drivers perform in the Free Practice phases, we won’t know exactly how well the drivers will perform. That said, looking at trends of races the drivers have run in the cold mixed with the capabilities of their cars, we have a good idea of what skills they can show on the track.
Viva Las Vegas (Grand Prix)
The champion Max Verstappen continued his brilliant run of form, picking up a historic 17th win this season earlier this month in Brazil. That beats his own record from last season in which he won 16 races. He’ll be looking to keep collecting trophies with another win here at a very special inaugural visit to this Vegas track.
Far and away the best bet to make is for Verstappen to win, and that’s what the bettors at BetMGM think as well, with nearly 60 percent of early money coming in for Max. His line has moved since it opened at -350, down to -275 now. The movement could be to reflect the conditions and the variability they no doubt add to the race, but he remains the safest option to win.
The more exciting bets would be top 6, with the nine drivers that have consistently been at the top of the field all seeing competitive odds:
To Finish Top 6:
Max Verstappen: -880
Lando Norris: -500
Sergio Perez: -333
Carlos Sainz:-333
Charles Leclerc: -333
Lewis Hamilton: -333
George Russell: -125
Oscar Piastri: +120
Fernando Alonso: +125
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
Any of these drivers could finish in the Top 6 on skill alone, but with the conditions being like they are, I would wait to see what the practice sessions and qualifying look like before making any big bets on these drivers. Look for Alex Albon with the Williams car, Daniel Ricciardo or Yuki Tsunoda from Alpha Tauri, or the French duo of Alpine drivers Pierre Gasly and Esteban Ocon to shake things up. Especially because of the cold temperatures for this race, anything could happen.
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What you see is what you get
With this being the penultimate race on this year’s F1 calendar, no teams are bringing major upgrades in for the two remaining races. That means we’ve already seen the cars that are going to be racing here, and it’s just a matter of which drivers will be able to take on the conditions of the new race track and cold temperatures to stand atop the podium.
That said, there is going to be a change to a car, with the Haas team releasing a statement saying that they plan to remove their last series of upgrades from their driver Nico Hulkenberg’s car. This is likely so they are able to see the difference in performance between upgrade packages as an opportunity to get ahead on testing their car for 2024, but it will be interesting to see which of the Haas cars comes out on top this weekend. With the larger results of this test hinging on next weekend in Abu Dhabi and beyond, don’t put much stock in the change.
Popular Props
With a strong showing last week, and losing out on a podium spot after a heated, multi-lap battle for third with veteran driver Fernando Alonso, Sergio Perez will be looking to come back firing on all cylinders. The most popular bet thus far in the week has Perez finishing Top 3 in the race (+160). If there’s any time he’ll be able to show his meddle, it’s likely to be this weekend.
On such an unpredictable track, hedging your bets isn’t a bad idea. Taking “Any other driver to win race vs. Verstappen” nets you +200 odds, not a bad take considering Red Bull’s breaking issues in the prior weekends.
Another bet to take if you’re looking for a longer shot would be “Mercedes car to win the race” coming in at +1200. A young and ambitious George Russell has been in the running to win or finish on the podium on a few occasions before making a mistake in the final few laps. But could he be due? Or perhaps his teammate, the legendary Lewis Hamilton could come into Vegas and do what he has been able to do so much in his career — win in the big moments.
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