Rivalry Week is upon us, which means tasty games we’ve been waiting for all season. It also means games that are truly hard to handicap.
For that, you can thank that proverbial cliché, “Throw out the record books when these two meet. …” Because there are games like the Oregon State Beavers-Oregon Ducks that simply scream “STAY AWAY.” Oregon is the better team, but the Ducks were last year as well (Oregon State 38, Oregon 34). And that was before the Ducks flew off to the Big Ten, leaving their Civil War rival behind.
Still, there are good, value-laden games, including one of our old friendly trends returning—the LSU Tigers Over.
Last week: 2-1. Season: 20-14
Can The Game Be the Game of the Year?
You, the Guide, and everyone else in college football waited for this game and the Guide is contractually obligated to break it down—even as the Guide can make a compelling argument for either the 11-0 Michigan Wolverines or the 11-0 Ohio State Buckeyes to win. All that’s at stake is a berth in the Big Ten title game against an Iowa Hawkeyes team that’s likely going to be a 20-point underdog. Also a spot in the College Football Playoff and a year of thumbing your nose toward your blood rival.
Other than that, where do you start? Well, a good place is asking if Michigan QB and one-time Heisman hopeful J.J. McCarthy will be the J.J. McCarthy of the first nine weeks, when he threw for 2,134 yards and 18 TDs. Or if he’ll be the J.J. McCarthy of the last two, when he was 19-of-32 for 201 yards and zero TDs. McCarthy’s plummeting stock drops into an Ohio State defense that leads the country in yards per play allowed (3.9), is ranked second in scoring (9.3 ppg) and third in total defense (252.9 ypg).
Buckeyes QB Kyle McCord hasn’t been mentioned in the same sentence as “Heisman Trophy.” He’s matched McCarthy’s 16 TDs/three interceptions mark over the last seven games. He has even outpassed him by 564 yards this season. McCord also has better skill players at his disposal, with WRs Marvin Harrison Jr. (62-1,093-13) and Emeka Egbuka among the nation’s best duos. Also available is RB TreVeyon Henderson (794 yds, 10 TDs) among the Big Ten’s best runners.
They will face their biggest test against a Michigan defense ranked first in scoring defense (9.0), total defense (234.8) and defensive TDs (five). This game is so even that the Guide figures where you go in this game largely depends on where a fluctuating line ends up. It has skirted Michigan -3, which is a good place to take the host Wolverines. Should it creep back up to Michigan -3.5 or higher, pouncing on the Buckeyes—who are taking 58% of the money as of this writing—is the play.
Best Bet: Ohio State -3.5 (-110 at BetRivers)
Watch: Saturday, Noon ET, FOX or fuboTV
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Can Daniels Strike Another Heisman Pose?
When you have nothing to play for in terms of conference titles, bowl eligibility, beating the bejesus out of your blood rival or, well, anything that matters from a team standpoint, you find your motivation elsewhere. And the LSU Tigers have found theirs by unleashing QB Jayden Daniels on the psyches of defenses and Heisman Trophy voters alike. This became clear last week, when LSU Coach Brian Kelly kept Daniels throwing and running against a grotesquely outgunned Georgia Southern team with a 35-point, fourth-quarter lead. Daniels leads the nation in points responsible per game (25.5) and his other numbers are brought to you by X-Box.
Over the past two weeks, against Georgia Southern and Florida, Daniels has amassed 1,115 total yards and 13 TDs. For the season, he’s completing 72.6% of his passes for 3,577 yards and 36 TDs to four interceptions. Meanwhile, he’s also run for 1,014 yards and another 10 TDs. That’s 4,591 yards of total offense and 46 TDs, which should gain the attention of even the most jaded Heisman voter.
WR Malik Nabers plays the role of Sundance well. He leads the nation in yardage (1,424), ranking T4 in TDs (12) and sixth in receptions (80). So when you combine a Heisman campaign to an offense without conscience and mix that with a team that is 10-1 to the Over this year, then add in one of the country’s worst defenses and a Texas A&M Aggies team that has scored 38, 51, 35 and 30 points in its last four games, you say “hello” to an old friend—the LSU Over.
Best Bet: Over-66.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Watch: Saturday, Noon ET, ESPN or fuboTV
Can Florida State Drain the Swamp?
Tate Rodemaker vs. Max Brown is not on the undercard of the next UFC card. Rather, they are the starting QBs for the Florida State Seminoles and Florida Gators. You don’t have to live in the state of Florida to realize these aren’t Jordan Travis and Graham Mertz, the starting QBs for the aforementioned. Travis is out with a hideous leg injury suffered last week against North Alabama. Mertz, meanwhile, broke his collarbone against Missouri.
This leaves matters in the hands of redshirt junior Rodemaker and redshirt freshman Brown. Rodemaker has more experience; filling in ably for the injured Travis in last year’s 35-31 victory over Louisville. He also has more weapons, with Keon Coleman (45-615-11) and Johnny Wilson (33-532-2) providing one of the best receiver tandems in the country and RB Trey Benson (743 yards, 11 TDs) keeping teams honest on the ground.
The Seminoles also boast a top-12 defense in terms of points allowed (16.9) and top-15 in passing yards allowed (183.5). Florida, meanwhile, has won three of the last four in this series. But the Gators have been inconsistent on both sides of the ball this season. It comes down to one team having more weapons, more to play for (a berth in a conference title game and an unbeaten season) and more experience at key positions. The other team here is the Florida Gators.
Best Bet: Florida State -6.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Watch: Saturday, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN or fuboTV
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