The NBA Cup semifinals tip off on Saturday afternoon in Las Vegas at T-Mobile Arena, and the NBA Cup Final is scheduled for Tuesday, December 17.
According to BetMGM, the Oklahoma City Thunder (19-5) are the betting favorite to win the NBA Cup at +120 odds. The Milwaukee Bucks (13-11) are the second favorite on the futures board at +240 odds. The Houston Rockets (17-8) and Atlanta Hawks (14-12) are both +500 odds.
The Bucks opened as a -3.5 favorite against the Hawks in the Eastern Conference side of the bracket. Although the Bucks and Hawks would be the #6 and #7 playoff seeds from the Eastern Conference if the season ended today, they’re among the hottest teams in the NBA right now.
The Thunder are a -5 favorite against the Rockets on the Western Conference side of the bracket. The Thunder and Rockets are currently the two best teams in the west, but they’re also two of the top defensive teams in the NBA.
In the inaugural NBA Cup last December, the Los Angeles Lakers defeated the Indiana Pacers.
Oklahoma City Thunder +120
The Thunder entered this season as a popular contender to win the 2025 NBA Championship. The Boston Celtics are the betting favorite to win back-to-back NBA titles at +225 odds, but the Thunder are currently the second on the futures board to win the championship at +425 odds.
The Thunder are the best all-around team vying for the NBA Cup compared to the other final four squads. The Thunder boasts the second-best defense (103.8 ppg) in the league. They have the third-best perimeter defense allowing only 33.6 percent of their 3-pointers. In overall field goal percentage (42.7 percent), the Thunder are ranked #1. The Thunder’s swarming defense forces opponents to turn the ball over a league-best 18.5 times per game.
On offense, the Thunder (115.8 ppg) are ranked in the Top 10. They lead the NBA with a point differential of +12.0. They’re one of seven teams that average at least 40 attempts per game from 3-point range.
All-Star point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was an MVP candidate last season, and he’s on pace to average at least 30 ppg for a third consecutive season. SGA leads the Thunder with 30.2 points and 6.3 assists per game.
Forward Jalen Williams emerged as a reliable scoring option for the Thunder, and he’s been a beast on both ends of the floor. Williams averages a career-high 21.8 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 2.0 steals per game in his third NBA season.
The Thunder signed free agent center Isaiah Hartenstein in the offseason, but he missed the first 15 games with a fractured hand. Hartenstein has been a welcomed addition especially after starting center Chet Holmgren fractured his hip last month. Hartenstein leads the Thunder in rebounding with 12.8 per game and he’s averaging a career-high 11.6 ppg.
SGA is the outright betting favorite to win the NBA Cup MVP at +140 odds. Williams is a long shot at +4000 odds. All the early money is backing the Thunder to win the NBA Cup, and SGA to win the MVP.
The Thunder and Rockets played twice this season. The Thunder won by 19 in early November but lost their last meeting by three points in early December.
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Milwaukee Bucks +240
After an ugly 2-8 start, the Bucks quickly turned things around. The Bucks have the NBA’s best overall record since mid-November with an 11-3 clip over their last 14 games. They finally have veteran swingman Khris Middleton back in the lineup after he missed the first quarter of the season while recovering from surgery on both ankles.
Although the Bucks lost to the Hawks by 15 points in early December, Middleton missed that game but he’ll suit up in Las Vegas. The Bucks have been slowly easing Middleton back into the rotation and he’s coming off the bench since his return a couple of weeks ago.
The dynamic duo of “Greek Freak and Dame” combined for an average of 58.5 ppg game this season. Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the Bucks with 32.7 points, 11.4 rebounds, and 6.0 assists per game. Damian Lillard finally looks like his old self averaging 25.8 points and 7.6 assists per game. Lillard knocks down 37.2% of his 3-point attempts, and Antetokounmpo shoots 61.2% from the floor.
The Greek Freak is second on BetMGM’s awards board at +300 odds to win the NBA Cup MVP. Lillard is one of the log shots at +1200 odds.
Houston Rockets +500
The Rockets narrowly defeated the Golden State Warriors by one point to reach the NBA Cup semifinals. Since losing to the Thunder in early November, the Rockets went 12-4 over their last 16 games.
Head coach Ime Udoka guided the Rockets to the second best record in the west and the fourth-best overall record in the NBA. They have the third best defense allowing only 105.9 ppg and lead the league in overall rebounding and offensive rebounding. The well-balanced offense has seven players averaging at least 11 ppg, but no one averages more than 20 ppg.
Shooting guard Jalen Green, the former #2 pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, leads the Rockets with 19.2 ppg. Center Alperen Sengun is probably the best player in the NBA that most people don’t know about. Sengun averages 18.8 ppg and leads the Rockets with 10.6 rebounds per game.
Veteran point guard Fred VanVleet can be a hot head at times and had several run-ins with officials this season. If FVV can keep his temper under control and has an offensive eruption, the Rockets have a chance to play the role of spoiler in Las Vegas.
Segen is the third favorite on the board to win the MVP at +650 odds. Green and VanVleet are MVP longshots at +3500 odds.
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Atlanta Hawks +500
The Hawks are 7-1 in their last eight games with impressive victories against the Bucks and New York Knicks, and they also beat the Cleveland Cavs twice. To put that in perspective, the Cavs lead the NBA with a 21-4 record, and half of their losses were against the Hawks.
Point guard Trae Young is the heart and soul of the Hawks averaging 21.0 points and 12.2 assists per game. Young finally has the right mix of role players surrounding him, which is why he leads the league in assists.
Combo guard Dyson Daniels has been an ideal backcourt mate with Young. After struggling in his first two seasons with the New Orleans Pelicans, Daniels is having a breakout season after the Hawks acquired him in an offseason trade. Daniels averages a career-high 13.5 ppg, but he also leads the NBA in steals with 3.0 per game. The Australian-born Daniels recently earned the nickname “The Great Barrier Thief.”
Small forward Jalen Johnson is having the best season of his young career. Forward De’Andre Hunter is finally back after missing almost half the season with a knee injury.
Young is +1000 odds to win the NBA Cup MVP. If you think the Hawks can beat the Bucks in the semifinals and then pick off either the Thunder or Rockets in the final, then you should also back Young to win the MVP.
You can back Johnson at +1100 odds to win the MVP. Johnson, a former first-round pick out of Duke, made a huge leap in his fourth NBA season. The small forward gained the confidence of head coach Quin Snyder last season and earned a starting role. So far this season, Johnson averages a career-best of 19.8 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per game. He’s the Hawks’ second top scorer and leads the team in rebounds.
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