Super Bowl 59 Faceoff: Eagles Aim to Dethrone Champion Chiefs

There are lots of angles when deciding who to bet in the Super Bowl. We break down why you should make some of these bets and how the teams match up.

Moments after the Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship, the Chiefs opened as a -1.5 favorite in Super Bowl 59 against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles clinched the NFC Championship earlier in the day to advance to the Super Bowl for the second time in the last three years.

Early money backed the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl, and the point spread moved to -2 before it dipped back to -1.5.

The points total opened at 48.5 O/U but rose as high as 50 before it ticked down to 49.5. The last time these two teams met in Super Bowl 57, they combined for 73 points!

That is only the second time in NFL history that two teams will square off for a rematch within a three-year span. The Eagles have a chance at redemption after the Chiefs narrowly defeated them 38-35 in Super Bowl 57. The Eagles were a -1.5 betting favorite three years ago, but the Chiefs prevailed as a slight underdog. This year, the Eagles find themselves as a small dog.

Chiefs: On Cusp of Historic Three-Peat

Love them or hate them, the Chiefs will attempt to make NFL history by winning the Super Bowl in three consecutive seasons. When the Chiefs won Super Bowl 58, it was considered an epic feat because they became only the second team this century to repeat as a Super Bowl champion.

Between parity and free agency, it’s difficult to run it back in consecutive seasons. Prior to the Chiefs winning two Super Bowls in a row last postseason, it happened only eight times.

The New England Patriots were the last team to pull off a repeat nearly 20 years earlier in 2003-04 at the start of their dynasty with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.

During the tail end of John Elway’s career with the Denver Broncos, he led them to back-to-back championships in 1997-98.

The Dallas Cowboys won back-to-back titles in 1992-93 during the pinnacle of the Jimmy Johnson era.

The 1980s were capped off by Joe Montana leading the San Francisco 49ers to consecutive Super Bowl victories in 1988-89.

The Pittsburgh Steelers were the dominant team in the 1970s when they won four Super Bowls. They pulled off two instances with back-to-back championships in 1974-75 and 1978-79.

The Miami Dolphins achieved perfection in 1972 with an undefeated record in the regular season under Don Shula. The Dolphins won consecutive Super Bowls in 1972-73.

Legendary coach Vince Lombardi led the 1966-67 Green Bay Packers to back-to-back titles by winning the first two Super Bowls. The Packers made history as the first Super Bowl winner but also became the first team to win the Big Game in back-to-back seasons.

The Chiefs are in a unique situation because they are the first repeat champions to attempt three in a row. All the previous back-to-back winners failed to reach the Super Bowl in the third year.

 


 

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Kansas City Betting Trends

Patrick Mahomes has a playoff record of 17-3 straight up in his career, and he’s 3-1 SU in the Super Bowl over the last five postseasons.

Mahomes also loves playing indoors with a 13-1 SU record. This year’s Super Bowl will be played in New Orleans at the Caesars Superdome.

Mahomes is also a covering machine in the postseason when he’s an underdog or short favorite of three points or less. In those situations, Mahomes and the Chiefs are 8-0 SU and ATS. We’re looking at that exact trend heading into Super Bowl 59 with the Chiefs at -1.5.

While many teams are worried about facing a defense led by defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, Mahomes brushes it off. Mahomes and the Chiefs are 8-0 SU versus Fangio’s defenses and 6-2 ATS, including six divisional games against the Denver Broncos.

With the Chiefs getting a lot of favorable calls from officials over the last few seasons, everyone will be paying close attention to the zebras in this year’s Super Bowl. Ron Torbert is the head referee, and he’ll make his second appearance in the Super Bowl. Mahomes and the Chiefs are 3-1 SU and ATS when Torbert is the ref.

Overall, the Chiefs went 9-10 ATS this season, but they’re 4-2 ATS in their last six games.

Swift Bets

The Chiefs have yet to lose a playoff game with Taylor Swift in attendance. With Swift watching games in person, the Chiefs are 6-0 SU in the postseason.

Since their loss on Christmas of 2023, the Chiefs won 23 out of their last 25 games. One of those losses occurred in Week 18 this season when they rested all their starters in the final game of the year.

 


 

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Eagles: Revenge of the Birds

The Eagles have been defying expectations since the preseason. The futures market favored the San Francisco 49ers and Detroit Lions to win the NFC Championship entering the 2024 season. The Eagles were the third-highest team on the board at BetMGM, but other sportsbooks had them fourth or fifth behind the Green Bay Packers or Dallas Cowboys.

Oddsmakers installed the Eagles with a projected win total of 10.5 O/U entering 2024. They had gone 11-6 the previous season, but the market did not have faith that the Eagles could even reach double-digit victories. The outlook seemed grim after a 2-2 start, but the Eagles finished the season on a 12-1 clip. For the second time in three seasons, they posted a 14-3 record. The last time they went 14-3 back in 2022, the Eagles also won the NFC Championship and secured a trip to the Super Bowl.

The Eagles finished the regular season ranked #2 in scoring defense by allowing only 17.8 ppg. Their defense also held up in three playoff games allowing only 18.3 ppg, which was the second-best scoring defense this postseason.

The Eagles employ the “Tush Push” which makes any short-yardage situation impossible to stop. The addition of running back Saquon Barkley in free agency is the primary reason the Eagles are back in the Super Bowl. Barkley rushed for 2,005 yards in 16 games this season and added another 238 receiving yards with 15 total touchdowns. Barkley has been a beast in the playoffs averaging 147.3 yards per game. He gashed the Rams for 205 yards in the NFC Divisional Playoffs. He scored three touchdowns for 118 yards on only 15 carries in the NFC Championship.

Philadelphia Betting Trends

The Eagles came into the postseason with one of the best defensive squads, but it’s their offense that turned heads in the NFC Championship game. They set an NFL record with 55 points in their blowout against the Washington Commanders. It’s interesting to note that teams with a high-scoring victory in the conference championship will often fail in the Super Bowl. Super Bowl teams that scored 40 or more points in their respective conference championship are only 3-7 in the Big Game. Teams that cranked out 45 or more points in the conference championship are 0-2 in the Super Bowl.

Head coach Nick Siriani only had to wait two more seasons to get another crack at Andy Reid in the Super Bowl. There have been four previous instances where head coaches met in a Super Bowl rematch. However, Siriani is facing an uphill battle because the losing coach in the first Super Bowl went 0-4 in the rematch.

The Eagles were 13-7 ATS this season and they covered 65 percent of their games. They’re 5-2 ATS in their last seven games, but 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games.

 


 

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History Playbook

On This Day In Sports History

February 5, 2012 — The Giants rally past the Patriots 21-17 in Super Bowl XLVI. It's a rematch of Super Bowl XLII four years earlier where the Giants upset the Patriots 14-10, ending New England's hopes for a perfect 19-0 season. In 2012, trailing 17-15, New York has the ball on their own 12-yard line with 3:46 remaining. Eli Manning connects with Mario Manningham for a 38-yard completion. The Giants advance to the New England six-yard line where Ahmad Bradshaw scores with 57 seconds left.

On This Day In Sports History

February 3, 2002 — The Patriots win the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history by beating the heavily favored St. Louis Rams 20-17. The New England quarterback is second year pro Tom Brady. The Patriots win on a 48-yard field goal by Adam Vinatieri as time expires.​