It’s been a chalk-heavy 2025 March Madness college basketball tournament. All four #1 seeds advanced to the Sweet 16, and at least three of the #2 seeds are still alive.
Duke is the betting favorite to win the championship, according to BetMGM. Florida is the second favorite on the board at +350, along with Houston at +500 and Auburn at +525.
MARCH MADNESS CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS
| TEAM | ODDS |
| Duke | +225 |
| Florida | +350 |
| Houston | +500 |
| Auburn | +525 |
| Tennessee | +1600 |
| Alabama | +1800 |
| Texas Tech | +2000 |
| Michigan State | +2000 |
| Maryland | +3300 |
| Arizona | +4000 |
| Kentucky | +5500 |
| BYU | +6600 |
| Michigan | +6600 |
| Purdue | +6600 |
| Ole Miss | +8000 |
| Arkansas | +10000 |
Without any true Cinderella teams alive in 2025, #10 Arkansas was the only double-digit seed to advance to the Sweet 16. This year did not see a single seed above #11 secure a spot in the Sweet 16. Arkansas is the long shot on the board at +10000 odds.
Best Tournament Bets
Duke: Healthy Flagg
When projected #1 pick Cooper Flagg sustained an injury in the ACC tournament, Duke nation collectively gasped. But Flagg avoided a serious injury and was diagnosed with a sprained ankle, so oddsmakers still kept Duke (33-3) as one of the betting favorites to win the championship.
Flagg started against #16 Mount Saint Mary’s but was under a minutes restriction. The super-frosh looked good in his first taste of March Madness and scored 14 points in 22 minutes in a blowout. He logged 29 minutes in the second round, and added 18 points, nine rebounds, and six assists in a 23-point victory over #9 Baylor.
With a healthy Flagg, Duke’s championship aspirations are back on track which is why they’re the title favorite at +225 odds. Duke is 2-0 ATS in the tournament and opened as a -9.5 favorite over #4 Arizona in the Sweet 16.
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Florida: 0-2 ATS
Florida (32-4) has an overall betting record of 26-10 ATS this season. They entered March Madness on a 6-0 ATS clip including 12-1 ATS over their previous 13 games. The Gators were a very profitable team this season but went 0-2 ATS in the tournament. Florida failed to cover as a -28.5 favorite against #16 Norfolk State and only won by 26. They squeaked by #8 UConn on Sunday but did not cover either in a two-point victory.
The Florida Gators were also a popular pick to win it all this March, especially among SEC loyalists and Duke haters. You can back them at +350 right now. If you picked Florida to win it all, then you’ll be haunted by a troubling historical stat. Only one March Madness champion – 1997 Arizona – began the tournament with an 0-2 ATS record.
Florida opened as -6.5 favorites over #4 Maryland in the Sweet 16.
Another Sweet 16 for Houston
Houston (32-4) is 19-16-1 ATS overall and 1-0-1 ATS in March Madness. Houston covered their opening round game in a 38-point blowout over #16 SIU-Edwardsville. Depending on what line you got in the second round, they pushed against #8 Gonzaga as a five-point favorite on the closing line. The Zags gave Houston a close sweat, but Kelvin Sampson led the Cougars to a sixth-straight trip to the Sweet 16.
In the last two tournaments as a #1 seed, Houston saw their postseason end during the Sweet 16. They lost an ugly, low-scoring affair against Duke last year and ran into a red-hot Miami squad in 2023.
This year, Houston has a very favorable matchup against #4 Purdue. The Boilermakers looked beatable in both of their victories against double-digit seeds, which is why Houston opened as a -8.5 favorite against Purdue.
Auburn Meltdown?
Aside from a trip to the 2019 Final Four, Auburn failed to reach the Sweet 16 in their four other March Madness appearances under head coach Bruce Pearl. Although Auburn locked up a trip to this year’s Sweet 16, many skeptics expect an inevitable Auburn meltdown.
Out of all the #1 seeds, Auburn has the longest odds to win the championship at +525, which puts them fourth overall on BetMGM’s futures board.
Auburn was a -32 favorite in the first round against #16 Alabama State, yet only won by 20 and failed to cover. They shot better in the second round and easily covered against #9 Creighton. Despite winning 30 games this season, The Tigers are only 18-16-1 ATS. They opened as a -7.5 favorite against #4 Michigan in the Sweet 16.
The #2 Seeds: Tennessee, Bama, Michigan St
Tennessee has the best title odds among the #2 seeds at +1600. They failed to cover against #15 Wofford but covered against #7 UCLA in a nine-point victory to advance to the Sweet 16. Even though Kentucky defeated Tennessee twice this season in fierce SEC conference action, the Vols are still the betting favorite at -4.5 heading into the Sweet 16.
Alabama is the highest-scoring team in the nation at 90.8 ppg, and they averaged 85 ppg in their two March Madness victories. Although Alabama struggled and failed to cover against #17 Robert Morris in the opening round, they bounced back with a 14-point victory against St. Mary’s in the second round. Bama opened as a -4.5 favorite over BYU. You can back them to win the title at +1800.
Michigan State is the top team from the Big Ten among the final 16 squads. They began March Madness with a 2-0 ATs record with a 25-point blowout victory against #15 Bryant in the first round and an eight-point win against #10 New Mexico in the second round. Michigan State opened only as a -2.5 favorite over #6 Ole Miss in the Sweet 16. If coach Tom Izzo can work his magic, Michigan State offers value at +2000 odds to win the title.
Tournament Teasers
The #3 Seeds: Texas Tech, Kentucky
Only two #3 seeds advanced to the Sweet 16 after Iowa State and Wisconsin were picked off in the second round. Out of the two remaining #3 seeds, Texas Tech has much better title odds at +2000 compared to Kentucky at +5500.
In the first round, Texas Tech defeated #14 UNC-Wilmington but failed to cover -15.5 in a ten-point win. Texas Tech looked much better in a second-round victory against Drake and covered in a 13-point win. Texas Tech is only 5-8 ATS over their last 13 games but opened -5.5 against Arkansas in the Sweet 16.
Kentucky entered March Madness on a 2-5 ATS clip, yet easily covered in their two victories over #14 Troy and #6 Illinois. Oddsmakers clearly favored the wrong team in the Illinois-Kentucky matchup, and Kentucky won by nine points as a +2.5 underdog.
Even though Kentucky bested Tennessee in their two regular season matchups, they’re an underdog for a third time against Tennessee. Kentucky won outright as a +10.5 dog in their first meeting in January, and then won again as a +3.5 dog in February.
Maryland Magic
Maryland advanced to the Sweet 16 in the lone buzzer-beater during the first two rounds in this year’s March Madness tournament. They edged out #12 Colorado State in a last-second thriller on Sunday thanks to heroics by freshman center Derik Queen.
Maryland is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games but only went 1-1 ATS in March Madness. They opened as a +6.5 underdog against top-seeded Florida. It’s interesting to note that Maryland played their first two games in Seattle, but did not fly back to the East Coast. The team decided to remain on the West Coast with their Sweet 16 game scheduled in San Francisco.
If Maryland can upset Florida, there’s no reason why they couldn’t run the rest of the table and win the championship. You can back them right now at +3300 odds to win the title.
Long Shots: BYU and Arkansas
VCU entered the tournament as one of the hottest teams in the country and were a popular pick to make a deep run as a #11 sleeper. BYU had other ideas. As the #6 seed, BYU defeated VCU by nine points and then edged out #3 Wisconsin in a two-point nail-biter victory.
BYU looks like they’re in the best spot to play the role of spoiler in this year’s chalk-heavy Sweet 16. You can back them at +6600 odds to win the championship. If BYU can beat #2 Alabama and #1 Duke to win the East Regional, then it seems logical that they could go all the way.
BYU is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games, and they covered in each of their March Madness victories. Alabama opened as a -4.5 favorite over BYU, but BYU is certainly a live dog in the Sweet 16. They have enough scoring firepower to keep up with a high-octane Bama squad.
Did John Calipari get his mojo back? In his first season as the head coach of Arkansas, Calipari led the Razorbacks to a berth to the Sweet 16. But he’s only two more wins away from a trip to the Final Four. Arkansas is the longest shot on the board to win the title at +10000 odds.
Arkansas was an underdog in both of their March Madness games and won outright by a margin of eight points. They picked off #7 Kansas in the first round, and stunned #2 St. John’s in the second round.
Arkansas opened as a +5.5 dog against #3 Texas Tech. In his last 15 games in the Sweet 16, Calipari is 12-3. In his last five games as an underdog in the Sweet 16, Coach Cal’s teams are 4-1 straight up. There aren’t many underdogs to root for, so you might as well fire away on Arkansas!
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