The 2026 NFL Draft is almost here, with the three-day spectacle beginning on April 23 in Pittsburgh. Beyond the picks and the pageantry, there’s a growing market for bettors looking to get in on the action. Sportsbooks like BetMGM offer a wide range of draft props. Here’s a quick guide to show you how to bet on the draft and some tips if you’ve never done this before.
Placing Prop Bets
You can wager on exact selections among the first 10 picks or take broader markets, like if a player is Top 5 or Top 10 material. You can also predict if a prospect goes in the first round.
Sportsbooks also offer specific props if a team drafts a certain player or position. There are position markets for the first WR or RB off the board. There’s also prop bets on draft totals and Mr. Irrelevant.
Picks 1-5
This is the most bet market in the draft and often the most predictable until chaos hits. The current draft order is: #1 Las Vegas Raiders, #2 New York Jets, #3 Arizona Cardinals, #4 Tennessee Titans, and #5 N.Y. Giants.
At BetMGM, quarterback Fernando Mendoza (-10000) is a massive favorite to become the first pick. Linebacker Arvell Reese (-285) is the favorite for the second pick. Edge rusher David Bailey (+200) is the favorite for the third pick. Running back Jeremiyah Love (+135) is the favorite for the fourth pick. Linebacker Sonny Styles (+185) is the favorite for the fifth pick.
If one team goes off-script and makes an outside-the-box or erratic selection early on, it can trigger a domino effect. Last-minute trades can also derail a mock draft and throw a wrinkle into the Top 5.
Mendoza, the Heisman-winning quarterback from Indiana, is the projected #1 pick by the Raiders. If the Raiders trade the first pick, a quarterback-needy team like the Jets or Cleveland Browns could move up to snag Mendoza.
The Titans have the #4 pick, but they’re rumored to trade up in the draft to secure the #2 pick from the Jets to target an elite defensive player like Bailey or Reese or possibly a running back like Love.
Top 5 Range
There’s no shortage of Mock Drafts by popular sites like ESPN, Yahoo, FantasyPros, Sleeper, The Ringer, The Athletic, PFN, PFF, and Sporting News. You can compile a consensus Top 5 or even make your own. The best value will be a player projected outside the Top 5 who fits a team’s need by whoever picks fourth or fifth.
Top 10 Pick
The best value in the Top 10 comes from trades or a run on a position. For example, a team trades up to select an offensive player like a wide receiver, running back, or quarterback. Or multiple teams early in the draft select wide receivers, then other teams panic and select a WR earlier than they initially planned.
WR Jordyan Tyson from Arizona State has been getting a lot of attention from scouts, but mock drafts project him to get picked #13 by the Jets or #16 by the L.A. Rams. If there’s a run on wide receivers, then Tyson could sneak into the Top 10.
Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson is an intriguing long shot. He’s been getting a lot of media buzz. If a gullible team owner buys into the hype and forces a trade, then Simpson could go much earlier than anticipated. BetMGM priced him at +3000 odds to go in the Top 10.
Player Drafted by a Specific Team
This is a fun prop bet that comes in handy if you understand position needs and the overall draft philosophy of your favorite team.
Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love is the top running back, and the Titans (+115) are the team most likely to select him with the fourth pick. The Commanders (+135) would gladly have him if he slips to seventh overall and the Giants (+375) do not snag him with the fifth pick.
Simpson is a popular target. He’s projected as the second-best QB in the draft behind Mendoza. He’s been linked to the Cardinals (+125) and Jets (+155), who both need a quarterback.
I’m a die-hard Jets fan and know they always screw up the draft, so we expect them to do something foolish even though they have multiple first-round picks this year. If the Jets select Simpson too early with the #2 pick or the #13 pick instead of waiting until the second round, at least there’s potential to boost your bankroll with an emotional hedge prop bet.
Position of First Drafted Player by Team
This is a great prop bet if your team picks much later in the draft when the draft board is less predictable. For example, who will the Pittsburgh Steelers select? There are multiple projections depending on which mock draft you consult. The Steelers need offensive linemen (+165) and wide receivers (+175).
The L.A. Rams would like to bolster their offensive line (+230) to protect veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford, and Sean McVay is always on the lookout for offensive weapons like receivers (+125).
First Position Player Drafted
These props focus on which player is the first off the board at each position. BetMGM lists Cornell Tate (-300) as the first wide receiver selected. Francis Mauiogoa (-235), an OT from Miami, leads the market as the first offensive lineman off the board. LSU’s Mansoor Delane (-400) is the clear favorite as the first cornerback drafted.
Draft Totals
These are essentially Over/Under bets on how many players at each position will go in the first round. BetMGM currently lists the total quarterbacks or running backs selected in the first round at 1.5 Over/Under. Wide receivers are a premium these days, which is why the current WR total is 5.5. The most popular position selected in the first round is offensive lineman at 7.5 O/U. This specific market tends to be sharper, but they can still swing late if teams prioritize fit over consensus rankings.
Mr. Irrelevant
The best nickname in pro sports goes to the last player selected in the NFL Draft. Most of the time, Mr. Irrelevant fades into obscurity.
However, an overlooked player will occasionally flip the script. The San Francisco 49ers selected Brock Purdy from Iowa State with the final pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, and he became a starting quarterback and legit star.
Ryan Succop is widely considered the most successful Mr. Irrelevant. The kicker from South Carolina, selected last in 2009, carved out a 14-year career and won the Super Bowl with the 2020 Tampa Bay Bucs.
You can place a wager on the position of the last drafted player. The best prices for Mr. Irrelevant this year are edge rushers and wide receivers, followed by offensive linemen and running backs.
Tips on Betting the NFL Draft
Here are some pearls of wisdom if you’ve never bet on the NFL Draft before:
- Mock Drafts and Research: Study mock drafts, but do not rely on one source like ESPN or your fantasy football platform. Check out as many mock drafts as you can find. The edge comes from spotting disagreement and not consensus.
- Monitor News and Trade Rumors: Keep an eye on breaking news, especially from key reporters like Todd McShay, Daniel Jeremiah, Adam Schefter, Ian Rapoport, and Mel Kiper Jr. News and rumors move markets.
- Shop Lines: Always shop around for the best possible value, depending on which sportsbooks you have access to. Monitor prediction markets to gauge real-time sentiment and probability insights from the betting public instead of relying on so-called expert opinions.
- Injuries: Players tend to slide to later rounds because of medical red flags. Study injury reports and recovery timelines. Follow @ProFootballDoc on Twitter for updates. Dr. David J. Chao is a former team doctor for the Chargers, and he shares amazing insights and evaluations.
- Legal Issues: The NFL is a billion-dollar business, so teams are not willing to risk coveted draft capital on a player with a history of legal problems, whether it is drug-related or domestic violence.
- Separate the Signal from the Noise: Ignoring the fluff and hype is the hardest aspect of betting on the draft. There’s an avalanche of hot takes, rumors, and manufactured storylines leading up to draft night. Be selective with your media consumption and rank your sources by credibility. Trust insiders over talking heads and content creators. Monitor the markets and line movements. Follow the money and not the noise from influencers and social media rumors.
- Know Thyself: Pick a lane and focus on your strengths and knowledge. Your edge could be a specific team, or division, position group, or college conference.
- General Managers: Every front office has its own personality, and not the one it projects in the media. It will be beneficial if you know how your favorite team operates and handles the draft every year. Pay close attention to draft capital and positional needs. Teams with a new general manager offer opportunities. Depending on the franchise, a new GM will be risk-averse and follow a conservative approach. Or they want to make a splash in their first draft with aggressive trades or targeting a specific player.
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