And then there were four! After two weeks of chaos and carnage, we’ve reached the Final Four of the 2026 men’s college basketball tournament. Arizona and Michigan square off in a heavyweight bout between #1 seeds, and Michigan opened as a -1.5 favorite. On the other side of the bracket, #3 Illinois takes on battle-hardened #2 UConn. Although Illinois opened at -2.5, the line quickly moved to -1.5.
Futures: Bookies Like Arizona
The public leans heavily toward the survivor of Arizona/Michigan to win it all. Arizona is the slight favorite to win the national championship at +165 odds, according to BetMGM. Michigan is close behind at +180. Meanwhile, Illinois sits at +475, and UConn is the long shot at +550 to win a third championship in the last four years.
Prop Bet Alert: Name the Finalists
BetMGM offers a fun prop bet to pick the finalists. Illinois vs. Arizona is the slight consensus favorite at +220 odds. Oddsmakers priced an all-Big Ten final featuring Illinois vs. Michigan at +220. UConn vs. Michigan sits at +340, while UConn reaching the final against Arizona is the long shot at +450.
Arizona: Team to Beat
Championship Odds: +165
Record: 36-2
Betting Record: 23-14-1
No one has yet slowed down Arizona. With a scoring margin of +21 points, the Wildcats covered the point spread in all four tournament games. Arizona rolled #16 LIU by 34, #9 Utah State by 12, #4 Arkansas by 21, and #2 Purdue by 15 to clinch the West Regional.
Arizona averaged 86.5 ppg this season and 89.5 ppg during the tournament. They easily outgunned Arkansas, the second-highest scoring team in the nation, dropping 109 in a statement victory in the Elite 8.
You never know where the buckets will come from in this well-balanced scoring attack. Three freshmen led the Wildcats at different times in March Madness: Brayden Burries (17.8 ppg, 6.3 rebounds), Koa Peat (17.5 ppg, 6.8 rebounds), and Ivan Kharchenkov (14.0 ppg, 6.5 rebounds).
A lights-out Burries shot a scorching 68.4 percent from 3-point land. Peat tallied at least 20 points in his last two games. Scouts ranked Kharchenkov, who was born in Moscow and raised in Germany, as the top international prospect in the upcoming NBA Draft.
Arizona is now 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games. They covered five in a row, including the Big 12 conference final and every game in March Madness. They opened as a rare +1.5 underdog against Michigan and went 4-0 ATS as a dog this season.
Michigan: Dusty May’s Team of Destiny
Championship Odds: +180
Record: 35-3
Betting Record: 18-20
Michigan faced minimal resistance in the Midwest Regional. They beat #16 Howard by 21, #9 St. Louis by 23, and #4 Alabama by 13, before they blew out #6 Tennessee by 33 in the Elite 8.
Michigan ranked #8 in scoring offense (87.5 ppg) in the nation this season. The offensive juggernaut scored at least 90 points in all four tournament games, averaging 95.25 ppg with a +22.5 scoring margin. On the defensive end, they allowed only 72.7 ppg with much of that happening in garbage time.
Yaxel Lendeborg (21.0 points, 7.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists) scored at least 23 points in his last three games. The senior forward shot 37.2 percent from 3-point range this season, yet he knocked down 50 percent of his treys in the tournament.
Lendeborg anchors a nearly impenetrable and treacherous frontline that includes Morez Johnson (13.8 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.0 blocks) and Aday Mara (13.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.8 blocks). Mara, a 7-foot-3 center from Spain, also saw his draft stock rise after his strong two-way play in March.
Michigan had a stretch at the end of the season when they went 6-15 ATS before the tournament began. They failed to cover -30.5 against Howard in the opening round, then beat the spread in their next three games. They opened at -1.5 against Arizona.
Illinois: Wagler and the Balkan Boys
Championship Odds: +475
Record: 28-8
Betting Record: 22-14 ATS
Illinois stomped #14 Penn in a 35-point blowout to begin the South Regional. They then beat #11 VCU by 21 points, defeated #2 Houston by 10, and ended #9 Iowa’s magical run with a 12-point victory in the Elite 8.
The Illini’s potent offense averaged 83.8 ppg this season and 79.3 ppg in the tournament. Their smothering defense stepped in their last three games, allowing only 56.3 ppg.
Keaton Wagler, the Big Ten Freshman of the Year, averaged 14.8 points and 11.0 rebounds per game in March Madness, knocking down 44 percent of his 3-point attempts. His draft stock continues to soar the deeper he leads Illinois in the tournament.
Freshman David Mirkovic led Illinois in scoring in two tournament games, while posting three double-doubles. He averaged 14.8 points and 9.8 rebounds, including 41.2 percent from downtown.
Junior swingman Andrej Stojakovic provides an offensive spark off the bench, averaging 15.0 ppg as the Sixth Man. The son of former NBA star Stojakovic shot 75 percent inside the arc in his last three games.
Mirkovic and Stojakovic, along with the Ivisic brothers and Mihailo Petrovic, are representatives of the Balkan region. This close-knit group is one reason why their infectious team’s chemistry fueled their run to the Final Four.
After an unimpressive 8-6 ATS start, Illinois went 14-8 ATS over its last 22 games this season. They improved to 22-14 ATS overall after they covered all four games in March Madness. They were an underdog only once in the tournament when they were installed at +2.5 against Houston. They opened as a-2.5 favorite, but the line quickly adjusted to -1.5.
UConn: Hurley’s March Magic Continues
Championship Odds: +550
Record: 33-5
Betting Record: 17-21
Danny Hurley’s teams are built for bare-knuckle brawls in the rough-and-tumble Big East, where teams ratchet up the defensive intensity. UConn channeled its inner toughness and clawed its way to the Final Four with a “Never say die!” mentality that helped it erase a 19-point deficit against Duke. A miraculous steal in the closing seconds resulted in a 3-point game winner during one of March Madness’ most electric finishes.
UConn defeated #15 Furman by 11 points, #7 UCLA by 16 points, #3 Michigan State by four, and #1 Duke by one point to clinch the East Regional. UConn advanced to its third Final Four since 2023 with a +8 margin of victory. They averaged 73.8 ppg, but held opponents to only 65.8 ppg.
UConn lives and dies by the 3-point line. Their ice-cold shooting almost doomed them in the Elite 8, but Hurley told his guys to keep shooting despite a dismal 1-for-15 from downtown. That unwavering confidence resulted in two clutch 3-point daggers from Alex Karaban and Braylon Mullins in their epic comeback to knock out Duke.
Mullins averages 11.8 ppg in the tournament. You’ve probably seen his soul-crushing, kill shot against Duke at least 50 times. With “alligator blood” in his veins, the freshman shrugged off a poor shooting performance to hit the biggest shot of his life. The 3-point bomb is arguably one of the most memorable game-winners in college basketball history.
Karaban, a four-year starter and two-time NCAA champion, averages 17.8 ppg. Even after an off night against Duke, he’s still hitting 38.7 percent of his 3-point attempts.
Senior big man Tarris Reed outplayed future lottery pick Cameron Boozer with 26 points, nine rebounds, four blocks, and two steals against Duke. He’s averaging 21.8 points, 13.5 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks per game.
How about this insane March Madness betting stat? Hurley improved to 17-3 ATS with UConn. He’s 14-0 ATS in his last 14 games, including 4-0 ATS this year. UConn is 10-0 ATS in the Sweet 16 or later under Hurley.
Bettors jumped on UConn when the Final Four line opened +2.5, but quickly moved to +1.5. UConn found themselves as an underdog only once this season and beat Duke outright as a +4.5 dog in the Elite 8.
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