There are two elements to understand when you’re breaking down this week’s PGA Tour stop—the CJ Cup Byron Nelson—which finds itself in the unenviable position of following a major championship and being one of three signature events in an eight-week span.
First, the host course, TPC Craig Ranch, is a birdie orgy. The average winning score in the five previous Nelsons held there was 25.5-under-par. The highest winning score was 23-under. The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas posts an Over/Under winning score of 260.5. That’s 23.5-under. Even your garden-variety journeyman Tour player puts this course in a Full Nelson when it comes to scoring.
The second? Well, that ties into the first in a Wayback Machine kind of way. Last year, Scottie Scheffler dismantled TPC Craig Ranch and his fellow competitors in ruthless fashion. His 31-under-par 253 not only carried him home by eight shots, but tied the PGA Tour record for lowest 72-hole score in relation to par. Scheffler’s first victory of 2025 was so complete and thorough that Erik Van Rooyen matched his final-round 63—yet finished eight back.
This explains why Scheffler is the definition of “prohibitive favorite” this week. BetMGM has him at +175 in what is a weak field. How weak? Well, the next closest choices are Si Woo Kim and Jordan Spieth at +1400. Spieth, a Texas native and three-time major champion, we get. But Kim that low?
Then, it jumps to the still-trying-to-regain-his-PGA Tour legs Brooks Koepka at +2500. From there, the numbers vault to Pierceson Coody at +4000 and go seriously north from there.
So with Scheffler carrying the lowest odds to win a Tour event in seven years, where should you look for value?
Jordan Spieth +1400 to win/+275 Top 10
Well, start with Spieth. Unlike fellow Texan Scheffler, he’s never won this event in his native habitat. But in four starts at TPC Craig Ranch, he’s gone T-9, second, MC, and fourth. Tearing up the par-5s at TPC Craig Ranch is crucial; the birdie rate on those holes is nearly 55 percent, and Spieth is 76-under on par-5s this year. That’s fifth on Tour.
He has seven top 25s in 13 starts and comes home after a T-18 at a difficult PGA Championship. You can never go wrong betting Spieth various ways here, even if he doesn’t win.
Brooks Koepka +2500 to win/+225 Top 10
Eventually, Koepka’s misbehaving putter is going to behave. Since his return to the Tour from LIV Golf, it hasn’t. Koepka sits 141st in Strokes Gained: Putting, and it is the one factor keeping him from reclaiming his perch among the Tour elite.
That’s because his ball-striking remains pristine. Koepka is second in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 24 rounds and third overall on Tour, and he is eighth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. That latter stat is key at TPC Craig Ranch, because in the last five years, the winner hasn’t been worse than fifth in that metric. Crucially, he is seventh in Proximity to Hole, which on the expected wet greens this week, could be the wake-up call for his putter. In this field on this course, he’s a must-play.
Pierceson Coody +4000 to win
Here, you get a legacy pick as well as a home-state selection. In 1964, Coody’s grandfather, Charles, captured his first Tour title at this event, when it was the Dallas Open Invitational.
You also get a player who ranks second (behind Scheffler) in Birdie or Better Percentage and top 10 in the field in Driving Distance, and Par-5 Scoring. Coody is fifth in Strokes Gained on Par-5s in his last 24 rounds and 10th on Tour in Par-5 Scoring (69-under). Throw in his length (14th in Driving Distance at nearly 316 yards), and you don’t have to squint hard to see Coody winning his first event this week.
Max Greyserman +5000 to win at BetMGM/+350 Top 10 at Caesars Sportsbook
Somehow, Max Greyserman corralled his usually wild driver (146th in Driving Accuracy at nearly 51 percent) well enough to finish T-14 on a brutally difficult Aronimink track at last week’s PGA Championship. If anything should send his confidence into deep red numbers, it’s coming out of that performance into a course that is a much better fit.
Greyserman doesn’t rank high in any key metric here other than 12th in Birdie or Better Percentage. But his length off the tee and his improved Strokes Gained: Approach in his last three tournaments (T-38, T-31, T-14) after missing four consecutive cuts should put him in the mix as your speculative flier pick.
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