Yes, we’re almost there. Three weeks and change away from the opening of the 2026 college football season. We can see the pomp. We can see the circumstance of every week. And we can see the questions already being asked:
- Can Indiana duplicate its dream season? And can Miami validate its College Football Playoff run to the title game?
- Can Oregon and Texas finally silence their critics by finally finishing?
- Will we see anything of consequence from Deion Sanders’ Colorado and Bill Belichick’s North Carolina? Will we care? Anything? Anything? Bueller? Bueller?
- Is Penn State for real? Is USC for real?
Those questions will be answered once the flag goes up on the season, starting with three Week 0 games—the juiciest being a clash between two ACC contenders NC State at Virginia on August 29. But most importantly…
- Where should we put our early money?
That question the Gridiron Guru can answer. But first:
Last year, we went 33-29—53.2 percent on our bets during what was a trip-on-a-runaway-roller-coaster season. Like every season, there were no-brainers we cashed and would-be no-brainers that we somehow didn’t. But the variance last year was unlike any previous season. Back-door covers, inexplicable letdowns (yes, we’re talking about you, Clemson), and just a conga line of the theatre of the bizarre seem to proliferate every week.
And yet, as always, we’re back for more with these four future wagers that cover the virtual gimmes and the speculative fliers.
Georgia to Make the CFP (-225 at BetMGM)
OK, this tastes like chalk. But one paragraph ago, we did say “virtual gimmes.” And this is about as virtual a gimme as there is on the board.
QB Gunner Stockton returns along with 16 of 21 defensive key contributors. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs avoid SEC favorite and No. 2 CFP choice (+650) Texas. Yes, they face road trips to both Alabama and Mississippi, but are either of those teams as good as they were in 2025? We don’t think so.
Looking at the rest of the schedule, the only possible trouble comes with a September 26 game in Athens against Oklahoma. Otherwise, Georgia can fall out of bed and win 10 games. It will likely win at least 11. And do you think an 11-win SEC team is sitting home in January? Us neither.
Georgia Tech Under 6.5 Wins (-150 at BetMGM)
One of our sleeper darlings of years gone by has gone by the wayside. That’s largely because do-it-all QB Haynes King has departed, leaving behind a massive void after racking up 10,184 yards and 91 TDs across 36 starts over the last three seasons.
Replacing him is Alberto “Brother of Fernando” Mendoza, who the Yellowjackets imported from Indiana. That tells you something right there, because if Alberto was anything like his big brother, he’d still be a Hoosier.
Regardless, Mendoza the Younger and Co. face a schedule that—at best—goes no further than a likely six wins. Georgia Tech has ACC trips to Virginia Tech, Pitt and Clemson, home games against Louisville and an improved Wake Forest, and non-conference games against Colorado, Tennessee and Georgia. Of that last trio, only Colorado is winnable.
Fresno State to Win the Pac-12 (+650) and Over 6.5 Wins (-150)
We know. Typing “Fresno State” and “Pac-12” in the same sentence made you do a double-take. Welcome to College Football in the mid-20s. Yes, it gives you cause for pause, but the Bulldogs won’t this season.
Fresno State is deep, physical, feral and talented. Last year, it had the best defense in the Mountain West, surrendering only 19 points and 286 yards of offense. The defensive line returns, along with Simeon Harris, who led the Mountain West with five interceptions and had five tackles for loss. Offensively, Maryland transfer Khristian Martin comes in to pilot a ground-pounding offense that went 8-0 when running 32 or more times—and returns its top three rushers. The only question is: can the Bulldogs get more creative with Martin to open up defenses?
If you’re really feeling bullish on the Bulldogs, you can get them at +3000 to make the CFP as the Group of 6 selection. There are far worse fliers you can take.
Houston to Win the Big 12 (+1600) and Over 8.5 Wins (+120)
First, the obstacles here. And they are formidable.
Coming off a 10-3 season, the Cougars’ schedule is brutal: at Texas Tech, at Utah, at Kansas State—three of their likely contenders for the Big 12 title. But there’s more: late road trips to Colorado and West Virginia. All told, Houston plays six of its final nine on the road.
Now, how they’ll clear those obstacles. QB Conner Weigman returns after throwing for more than 2,700 yards and 25 TDs (with only nine picks). He also ran for another 700 and 11 TDs as the Cougars scored at least 30 points eight times. Weigman leads an offense with a loaded WR room, starring Amare Thomas (966 yards, 12 TDs) and one welcoming in RB Makhi Hughes. The former Tulane standout under former Tulane and current Houston coach Willie Fritz spent an inconsequential 2025 at Oregon. But before then, he ran for 2,779 yards and 22 TDs in two years for the Green Wave.
Defensively, the Cougars should be better than last year, after returning six starters and hitting the transfer portal hard for the other five spots. So we’re going to hit the Cougars and their under-the-radar value hard at the window.
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