One of the Gridiron Guru’s must-watch shows is ESPN SportsCenter host Scott Van Pelt’s “Bad Beats” segment. Listening to Van Pelt—one of the few reasons to watch ESPN outside of game coverage—and producer “Stanford Steve” Coughlin bounce horrific betting bounces off each other every Monday night is not only comedic relief, but a temporary salve for what shouldn’t have—but did—ail you at the window.
Which brings us to the Gridiron Guru’s first bad beat of the 2025 college football season—last weekend’s Ole Miss-Kentucky game. Ole Miss was leading, 30-20, with 1:10 left, comfortably inside the 8 ½-point spread. Then, with 13 seconds left and Kentucky driving to the Rebels’ 29, Ole Miss Coach Lane Kiffin inexplicably called a timeout.
With the Wildcats out of timeouts, the gift allowed Kentucky to send out kicker Jacob Kauwe, who booted a 39-yard field goal with eight seconds left. That brought the Wildcats within seven at 30-23. The Rebels recovered the obligatory onside kick, but the damage to Ole Miss bettors was already done.
“Sorry to a lot of gamblers there at the end,” Kiffin said.
Yeah. Thanks, Coach.
Yes, it’s an occupational hazard. However, it is never easy to watch a nearly certain cash investment turn into trash. Fortunately, it’s a long season and opportunities abound.
Last week: 1-2. Season: 3-3.
Back For More Rebel Madness
Call us masochists, crazy, or a combination thereof, but speaking of the Rebels, we’re back for more this week. And with visiting Arkansas coming to town, we should be in for a lot more on the scoreboard.
Arkansas has scored 56 and 52 points in its first two games, albeit against minnows Alabama A&M and Arkansas State. Under the tutelage of the much-traveled Bobby Petrino, now serving as Arkansas’s offensive coordinator, QB Taylen Green has thrown for 10 touchdowns, while completing 73.2 percent of his passes.
Here’s where the wheels come off for the Razorbacks. They’re giving up a rather pedestrian 111 yards per game in rushing against those minnows. And that’s positively smothering compared to Ole Miss, which is surrendering nearly 182 yards per game on the ground. Much of that, courtesy of a revamped defensive line that lost all four starters, but when you combine it with a pass rush outside of the top 100, you see where this is going.
Points. Drives. Overs. Even with Ole Miss QB Austin Simmons fighting inexperience and four turnovers in his first two games.
The offensive pyrotechnics come with a trendy warning. Ole Miss has hit the Over only four times in its last 13 games. Arkansas, meanwhile, has hit the Over once in its last four away games.
You could take the Razorbacks and the 8 ½ points (sound familiar?), because Arkansas is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 against the Rebels. Or you could ignore that trend and thumb your nose at everything but blowing up the scoreboard. We’re opting for either.
Best Bets: Arkansas +8.5 (-110 at BetMGM) or Over-62.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
A Bull Market in Miami
With Florida State’s rebound and Miami’s resurgence dominating the college football storylines in the Sunshine State, say hello to the party-crasher—the South Florida Bulls. While your attention was understandably focused elsewhere, South Florida was continuing a bull market that began last year, the second of two consecutive seven-win seasons under Russian-born coach Alex Golesh.
Now, however, the Bulls Market is red hot. South Florida opened its season by laying waste to Boise State, 34-7. That served as the precursor to an 18-16 upset of Florida in The Swamp last week that featured QB Byrum Brown taking the Bulls on a climactic 89-yard scoring drive in the final two minutes. The victory as 18 ½-point underdogs was the largest outright upset of the season.
Yes, the Bulls are playing with house money. Now, however, that goodwill war chest gets tested against a Miami team ranked fifth in the country and—behind ex-pat Georgia transfer QB Carson Beck—checking all the boxes of a national contender. Last year, the Hurricanes defanged the Bulls, 50-15, a score that is deceptive by the fact that it was a one-score game at halftime.
Miami has outgained its last 20 opponents in yardage, currently the best streak in the country. Defensively, the U is holding opponents to 191 yards of offense and has allowed only one first down in 11 third-down tries.
South Florida’s Bull run may come to an end, but the Hurricanes are 6-8 ATS in their last 14. Do you really want to sweat out giving 17 points to this team right now?
Best Bet: South Florida +17 (-110 at BetMGM).
These Wildcats Should Duck
If you didn’t see any of the Oklahoma State-Oregon game last week in Eugene, you missed one of the most clinical dissections of an allegedly respectable team this decade. This wasn’t Alabama blasting Louisiana-Monroe, 73-0, or Florida State beating East Texas A&M, 77-3. This was Oregon dismantling a regular Big 12 presence, 69-3, with a dominance as shocking as it was awe-inspiring.
How awe-inspiring? The Ducks outgained Oklahoma State by 420 yards (631-211) despite losing the time-of-possession battle (31:19-28:41). They reeled off a 59-yard touchdown run on their second offensive play and a 65-yard touchdown pass on their third. According to ESPN’s Bill Connelly, Oregon had more gains of 40-plus yards (five) than OSU had gains of double-digit yardage (four).
We won’t spend too much time pointing out how over-its-skis Northwestern is here; the Wildcats are 4-8 ATS in their last 12, other than to illustrate that Oregon has covered a 28.5-point and 28-point spread the last two weeks. We’ll conclude by pointing out the Ducks have covered the spread nine times in its last 15 games, and they’re 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS as road favorites in their short Big Ten stint.
Best Bet: Oregon -28 (-110 at BetMGM)
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