NFL Betting Model Analysis and a Few Expert Picks For Week 1

The NFL regular season starts in a week and we have expert predictions for three games, including the Detroit Lions against the Kansas City Chiefs.

With the NFL regular season starting in seven days, now is the time to start analyzing your picks for the first week of the season. It can be a bit tricky trying to handicap the games since no teams have played yet.

It might be advantageous to look for an NFL betting model that’s supported by data. The staff at BetQL has expert analysis and data-driven predictions. They offer a daily NFL pick of the day that combines in-depth research, advanced algorithms, and the latest trends to provide you with the most valuable betting opportunity.

Odds for NFL Week 1

Team                                             Spread                   ML              Total

Detroit Lions at                             +6.5 -107              +235           O 54 -110

Kansas City Chiefs                         -6.5 -115              -295            U 54 -110


Houston Texans at                         +9.5 -110              +345           O 43.5 -113

Baltimore Ravens                           -9.5 -110              -455            U 43.5 -108


Tennessee Titans at                        +3.5 -121              +140           O 41 -112

New Orleans Saints                        -3.5 +100              -175            U 41 -109


San Francisco 49ers at                    -2.5 -110              -148            O 40.5 -109

Pittsburgh Steelers                         +2.5 -110              +122           U 40.5 -112


Cincinnati Bengals at                     -2.5 -110              -136            O 47.5 -110

Cleveland Browns                         +2.5 -110              +112           U 47.5 -110


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at              +6 -110                +205           O 45.5 -108

Minnesota Vikings                         -6 -110                 -265            U 45.5 -113


Jacksonville Jaguars at                  -4.5 -109              -200            O 45 -113

Indianapolis Colts                          +4.5 -112              +163           U 45 -108


Arizona Cardinals at                      +7 -110                +240           O 38.5 -110

Washington Commanders             -7 -110                 -305            U 38.5 -110


Carolina Panthers at                      +3.5 -110              +150           O 40 -109

Atlanta Falcons                              -3.5 -110              -182            U 40 -112


Miami Dolphins at                         +3 -110                +123           O 50.5 -113

Los Angeles Chargers                    -3 -110                 -150            U 50.5 -108


Los Angeles Rams at                      +4.5 -112              +180           O 46.5 -110

Seattle Seahawks                            -4.5 -109              -225            U 46.5 -110


Las Vegas Raiders at                      +4 -112                +163           O 44 -110

Denver Broncos                             -4 -109                 -200            U 44 -110


Green Bay Packers at                     +1.5 -110              +104           O 43.5 -112

Chicago Bears                                -1.5 -110              -125            U 43.5 -109


Philadelphia Eagles at                    -3.5 -110              -195            O 45 -112

New England Patriots                    +3.5 -110              +168           U 45 -109


Dallas Cowboys at                         -3.5 -103              -177            O 46.5 -112

New York Giants                           +3.5 -120              +145           U 46.5 -109


Buffalo Bills at                                -2.5 -109              -134            O 46 -110

New York Jets                                +2.5 -112              +110           U 46 -110

Odds courtesy of BetRivers

The NFL model makes picks by utilizing advanced statistical algorithms and historical data to generate predictions. It analyzes a wide range of factors, including team and player statistics, performance trends, injuries, weather conditions, and other relevant variables.

It’s important to note that while NFL models are powerful tools that leverage statistical analysis, they are not infallible. Unforeseen events, such as injuries, weather conditions, or unexpected performance fluctuations, can still impact game outcomes. Therefore, it’s crucial to use models as one resource among others, incorporating your own analysis and knowledge of the game when making betting decisions.

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Mountain of Data

NFL models gather and process large amounts of data. That includes historical game results, player performance metrics, team statistics, and situational data. This data is sourced from various reliable and comprehensive databases.

Feature Selection:

Models identify relevant features or variables that have a significant impact on game outcomes. These features can include factors like team offensive and defensive rankings, player statistics, recent performance trends, home-field advantage, injuries, and more.

Model Training:

The model is trained using historical data, where it learns the relationships between the selected features and the corresponding game outcomes. Different machine learning algorithms, such as regression models, decision trees, or neural networks, are employed to train the model.

Statistical Analysis:

The trained model performs statistical analysis on the collected data, identifying patterns, correlations, and trends that can influence game results. It calculates probabilities and estimates the likelihood of various outcomes based on the input features.

Predictions and Probabilities:

Once the model is trained and the statistical analysis is complete, it generates predictions for upcoming games. These predictions typically include probabilities for each team’s likelihood of winning, point spreads, and totals.

Evaluation and Refinement:

Models are continually evaluated and refined based on their performance and accuracy. Historical data is used to assess the model’s predictive capabilities, allowing for adjustments and improvements to enhance its accuracy over time.

Integration with Betting Lines:

NFL models incorporate betting lines and odds provided by sportsbooks into their predictions. By comparing the model’s predictions with the available betting lines, the models can identify potential value bets where the predicted outcome differs significantly from the odds offered by bookmakers. Five stars mean the most value, one star means little/no value.

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Giants Defend at Home against Cowboys

Dan Karpuc: Giants +3.5 (-110, BetMGM)

The Week 1 matchup between the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys presents an intriguing betting opportunity, with the Giants holding a 3.5-point underdog status against the Cowboys.

The Giants’ strong performance against the spread (ATS) last season, going 14-5 with a remarkable 73.7% cover rate, was the best in the NFL. Additionally, their ATS record at home was impressive at 6-3, and as underdogs, they were particularly successful at 11-3 ATS.

New York has made notable improvements in their roster during the offseason. They added star tight end Darren Waller. Quarterback Daniel Jones took a step forward under offensive coordinator Brian Daboll last season. The addition of rookie wideout Jalin Hyatt, known for his ability to stretch the field and challenge defenses vertically, adds further potential to their passing game.

While running back Saquon Barkley’s status is uncertain, the Giants have found success with a pass-first approach and are likely to continue utilizing this strategy.

Defensively, the Giants have the potential to surprise opponents, boasting key playmakers such as Leonard Williams, Kayvon Thibodeaux, and Dexter Lawrence. The introduction of rookie cornerback Deonte Banks is expected to make an immediate impact. On the other side, the Cowboys’ defense is also formidable, especially with the addition of Stephon Gilmore and the presence of Trevon Diggs, Micah Parsons, and DeMarcus Lawrence. However, questions surround the turnover-prone Dak Prescott, and the offense may take some time to find its rhythm under new offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, particularly with the departure of Dalton Schultz and the team’s transition away from Ezekiel Elliott.

Considering the Giants’ strong ATS performance last season, their offseason improvements, and the potential of their defense, they appear to be a solid bet as 3.5-point underdogs against the Cowboys in Week 1. It’s important to evaluate the ongoing developments leading up to the game, including Saquon Barkley’s availability, to make an informed decision.

Lions Play Tough Against Chiefs

Lucy Burdge: Lions +6.5 (-110, Caesars)

The Detroit Lions were a spread-covering machine last season. I think they will be able to keep this one close against the Kansas City Chiefs. These two teams last played each other in 2019 when the Chiefs won, 34-30.

I see the Lions keeping this score within seven points in this game as well to open up what I think will be an impressive season for Detroit.

Vikings Cover Against Bucs

Kate Constable: Vikings -6 (-110, BetRivers)

Whether it’s Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask starting in Week 1 at quarterback, there is just no way I can’t back the Tampa Bay Buccaneers even as 6.5-point underdogs against the Minnesota Vikings. Yes, Minnesota was extremely lucky last year, going 11-0 in one-score games, but I don’t think Tampa Bay is going to give them too much trouble. Minnesota improved its defense, which was a huge issue last year, bringing in Brian Flores to take over as coordinator and adding Byron Murphy and Joejuan Williams in the secondary. The defensive line should be able to get to the QB as the Bucs offensive line ranked in the bottom-five in pass rush and run blocking last season. Offensively for Minnesota, the connection between Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson is enough for me to think the Vikings can win this game by a touchdown.

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