The first game of the 2023 NFL season is Thursday as the Detroit Lions head to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs.
There has been a lot made of the Lions and their chance to make the playoffs this season. They are the +135 favorite at BetMGM to win the NFC North and are sporting +2200 odds to win the Super Bowl.
We should get a pretty good idea where Detroit is on Thursday when they face the defending Super Bowl Champs.
The staff at BetQL has their thoughts on who should come out on top of this game, which will be broadcast at 8:20 ET on NBC and fuboTV. Check out some of their best bets below.
Chiefs, Over Attractive Parlay
Dan Karpuc: Chiefs -6.5 & Over 54.5 (+264, Caesars)
There’s going to be a lot of scoring in this game as both teams have a ton of offensive firepower. Lions rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs will instantly factor into a backfield shared by David Montgomery, while quarterback Jared Goff has multiple options in the passing game headlined by Amon-Ra St. Brown and Marvin Jones Jr. The Lions had one of the most exciting offenses in the NFL last season and I expect them to put up plenty of points again this season.
Speaking of points, reigning MVP and Super Bowl winner Patrick Mahomes will have a ton of weapons to pick from once again. K.C.’s entire backfield will be back for support, but a passing attack that includes Travis Kelce, deep threat Marquez Valdes-Scantling, speedsters Skyy Moore, Karadius Toney, and Justin Watson, as well as rookie Rashee Rice is going to have no issue putting up plenty of points.
The Chiefs’ offensive line is also better than last season’s crew. Overall, I see the Chiefs winning by double-digits, but both teams should be able to find the end zone enough to get over this 54.5-point total in Week 1.
Points Plentiful for Both Teams
Kate Constable: Lions-Chiefs o54.5 (-110, BetMGM)
This is the highest total on the board for Week 1, but I think that makes sense considering these two offenses and the question marks they both have on defense.
The hype on the Lions entering the season stems from the potential that they have on offense. They revamped their running back room by drafting Gibbs in the first round and adding Montgomery via free agency. Those players join a solid receiving corps with Goff leading the charge at QB. Detroit last season finished eighth in passing offense, 11th in rushing and fifth in scoring. They should be able to pick up where they left off, especially against a Chiefs defense that is missing its best player, DT Chris Jones, and DE Charles Omenihu.
Offensively, Kansas City led the league in passing and scoring last season. Not much of a surprise considering they have Mahomes. And while the Lions overhauled their secondary, which should be much better this season, this is Week 1 and I’d imagine there will be some chemistry issues for this new group early on. That’s going to give Mahomes plenty of opportunities downfield that the Chiefs should turn into points. Expect a high scoring, back-and-forth affair to open the NFL season.
Take Lions and Points
Matt Horner: Lions +6.5 (-105, Caesars)
I think this number is still good, despite not getting the +7 here that some early bettors were able to grab. If you want, you can wait and see if you can get that number again before kickoff, but be quick because I suspect it would be bet back down immediately. Underdogs are almost always valuable early in the season, and the Chiefs are one of the prime targets to pick on. Despite how good they have been, Kansas City is just 10-26 ATS when favored by 3.5 or more since 2020.
Lucy Burdge: Lions +6.5 (-110, Caesars)
The Lions were a spread-covering machine last season, as they went 12-5 ATS and covered 70.6 percent of the time. And a bunch of those covers were against good teams. Some BetQL trends in favor of the Lions to cover this spread are that Dan Campbell is 20-9 ATS as an underdog while coaching Detroit, and he is 12-4 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points while coaching Detroit. I have a ton of faith in Campbell and this Lions team and I see them starting off this season with another cover.
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