Week 9 of the NFL regular season is in the books.
Public bettors did very well last week. Both the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals covered in standalone spots, while the Cleveland Browns obliterated the Arizona Cardinals at home.
Elsewhere, the Baltimore Ravens captured a convincing win over the Seattle Seahawks, while the New Orleans Saints escaped with a win over the Chicago Bears.
Now, Week 10 NFL betting lines are live. Here’s a look at the current spreads and totals, as well as best bets for the action.
Patriots Moneyline (+110) vs. Colts
This is largely a fade of the Indianapolis Colts rather than a play on the New England Patriots.
More than half of Indy’s point total against Carolina came off pick-sixes. Even though they’re facing Mac Jones, the Colts shouldn’t see that happen again.
Lost in their convincing win over the Panthers is the fact Gardner Minshew and company generated nothing offensively.
Against a bad defense, the Colts amassed only 198 yards.
Teams that racked up fewer than 200 yards of offense one week are 45.5% against the spread the next. Teams that created fewer than 200 yards AND WON are 42.6% ATS in their next game.
I’ll take a piece of New England +2.5 if it gets there, but +110 is good enough for now.
Steelers-Packers Total Under 37 Points (-110)
Make a note to yourself – if it’s late in the season and the total is super low, there’s usually a good reason.
Dating back to the 2017-18 season, games with a total at or below 39 points are 64.6% to the under (31-17-1) when played outdoors during October and November.
Those games also aren’t coming close to hitting the over. Per Bet Labs, the average margin of victory is 2.91 points.
In terms of the matchup, the Pittsburgh Steelers defense is no stranger to bettors. Entering Week 10, the Steelers are ninth in defensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.
The Green Bay Packers are less consistent, but I was encouraged by their performance against Los Angeles in Week 9.
Against a Steelers offense 23rd in offensive DVOA, they should do enough to keep this game under a low total.
Browns (+6) and Under 38.5 Points
Regarding the latter play, it’s the same system as Steelers vs. Packers.
Unlike that game, these teams both possess elite defenses. Baltimore is first in defensive DVOA, while the Browns are second.
These sides also played earlier this season, with that game finishing on 31 points.
In terms of the spread bet, Cleveland matches a number of historically profitable betting systems.
Divisional underdogs in games with a total less than or equal to 42 points are 60% against the spread since 2018-19.
Plus, for all his dominance over the NFC, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson struggles as a divisional favorite.
For his career, Jackson is 8-11 ATS as a divisional favorite, including 5-10 when he’s -3.5 or higher.
