The futures market of NFL bets extends to wagers on player prop bets of projected numbers and awards. To have success in picking a player to go Over or Under a projected number requires a historical look at a 3-year sample size of stats.
Is there any year that the player exceeded the projection? Are the same conditions in place for the player? If the player is a quarterback, does he have the same targets and offensive line as last year when he exceeded the projection?
Let us take a closer look at some of the popular quarterbacks that are going to get prop bet action prior to the start of the NFL regular season.
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Jalen Hurts Set for Another Big Passing Year
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is projected to have total passing yards of 3,599.5. BetMGM has the price for the Over and Under at -110. In Hurts second season as a starter, he exceeded the projected number by 150 yards. He did this in 15 games with a 66.5 completion percentage.
Hurt has improved his physique and appeared stronger during OTAs. The Eagles have the core of their offensive line returning and added DeAndre Swift. The running back from the Detroit Lions is a pass-receiving upgrade over Miles Sanders, who left to sign as a free agent with the Carolina Panthers. Hurts is durable so he would be a candidate to go Over his projection.
Mahomes Passing Expectations Again
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 4,750.5 passing yards. Caesars Sportsbook has the price at -115. Mahomes has exceeded the projection in three of his last five seasons and two of the past three. Last year was phenomenal because Mahomes didn’t have wide receiver Tyrek Hill who was traded to the Miami Dolphins. Mahomes will not have Offensive Coordinator Eric Bienemy, who departed to the Washington Commanders. He has averaged 15.8 starts a season over the last five years, so resilience is not a factor. Mahomes goes Over the projection.
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Prescott Bouncing Back from Injury
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is projected to have 3,925.5 yards. BetMGM has the listed price at -115. Prescott’s exceeded the projection in alternating years. The seasons he didn’t go Over were shortened by injuries, If Prescott stays healthy, he has the weapons in wide receivers CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, and Michael Gallup. The trend would indicate he would go Over this year since he failed to do so in 2022. Take him to go Over.
NFL Awards Present Value
When you look at the awards category, the NFL MVP leaps at you. Caesars has a bet that includes Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen to win the regular season MVP with a price of +190. If any other player wins you can get the field at -240. Mahomes has won the award two times. Two players that you get in your field bet are New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers and Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson. These players have won the award a combined four times. Rodgers is joining a new team and Jackson is looking to bounce back from an injury in 2022. The field bet is the play here.
There are some team future bets that merit consideration on Bet365. What NFL team will make the playoffs? This is one of the easiest bets I‘ve seen on the board. The price on the good teams will stagger you so set your own price as to how much you want to risk. My top 5 teams that I feel are worth an investment are:
- Cincinnati Bengals -320 (Yes)
- Jacksonville Jaguars -210 (Yes)
- New England Patriots -320 (No)
- Cleveland Browns +100 (Yes)
- Detroit Lions +145 (No)
The Bengals will play the NFC West four times and should go 3-1 with wins over the Seattle Seahawks, Arizona Cardinals, and the Los Angeles Rams. The Cincinnati Bengals are poised for a double-digit win season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars play in a weak division and are the front runners to repeat in the AFC South. The New England Patriots have not improved their offense so they will struggle to play at a .500 level.
The Cleveland Browns will have quarterback Deshaun Watson for the entire season and should vie for a wild card position. The Lions will not catch teams by surprise this season and will not make the playoffs for the seventh consecutive year. Both the Lions and the Browns have value because you get better odds for the selection.
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