It is the Gridiron Guru’s constitutional duty in this space not only to bring you what we think are analytical wagers that bring value and opportunity, but to bring you the best stories when those break down due to the bane of every sports bettor.
The bad beat.
And we had one of those last week that torpedoed our North Carolina +3 against Clemson wager: one we’re still trying to figure out.
North Carolina led 17-3 late in the first half and 17-6 at halftime. They held the Tigers without a touchdown for three quarters. Then, the weather hit—a 2-hour, 27-minute weather delay due to lightning.
And with that, lightning struck the Clemson offense. It scored on four of seven second-half drives, including two TDs in the last four minutes to snatch a 28-20 victory.
Just like that, a sure thing was anything but. And it dropped the Gridiron Guru under .500—for now. There are no sure things here; ask anyone who bet North Carolina State last week.
But there’s always value and opportunity to find.
Last week: 1-2. Season: 4-5.
Can the Rebels Avoid Being Gator Bait?
We hear you now, the voices in your head and your wallet screaming, “THIS IS A TRAP GAME—STAY AWAY!” Or perhaps, you’re hearing the snarky tones of Florida coach Jon Sumrall, who—when told his Gators were favored against the No. 4 team in the country—quipped, “There’s a lot of good drugs out there, huh?”
Yes, there are. And yes, you could call this a trap game for Ole Miss, especially after the Rebels took down the Magnolia State’s version of Darth Vader in former coach Lane Kiffin and the LSU Tigers last week. So those voices in your head are asking what the Rebels can do for an encore against a No. 21 Florida team off to its first 3-0 start since 2019?
Well, they can unleash QB Trinidad Chambliss, an early Heisman favorite, who has two 300-yard games against ranked opponents, while piloting an offense that averaged 38 points a game. And they can build on last year’s 34-24 victory, which broke a three-game Florida winning streak in the series.
The best way for the Gators to do that is via the legs of RB Jadan Baugh, who is averaging 8.5 yards per carry and is second in FBS with 458 rushing yards. The more he has the ball, the less Chambliss and Co. have it.
Florida averages 44 points a game. But put the asterisk of Campbell and Florida Atlantic next to that, because that’s where a combined 118 points came against.
This isn’t your normal wagering line. According to TruMedia, since 2019, only one other AP top-five team has been an underdog against a team that was outside the top 20: No. 23 Utah coming in as a 3-point favorite over No. 3 Oregon in 2021. The Utes validated the oddsmakers with a 38-7 thrashing.
We’re not on the same drugs Sumrall was referring to. And we’re not falling into that trap.
Best Bets: Ole Miss +3 (Even at BetMGM) or +133 Moneyline (Caesars)
Only Utah, Iowa State Fans Need to Watch
Speaking of trap games, here’s a trap game—one that traps you into watching trench warfare football between two defenses that refuse to bend, much less break.
No. 15 Utah ranks in the top-20 in eight defensive categories and is especially brutal against the pass. Opposing QBs are completing less than 45 percent of their throws (third nationally), while putting up a miserly 81.0 QB rating (second). The Utes have allowed only one TD pass this season.
Yes, Utah’s toughest game came against a barely mediocre Arkansas team—which it flattened, 43-10—but the Utes are surrendering 2.7 yards-per-carry on the ground (19th) and only 239.3 total (13th).
Iowa State is 3-7 to the Under in its last 10 games. Its defense is top-20 nationally in six defensive categories, most notably yards-per-game (11th/226.3) and yards-per-play (12th/3.8). The Cyclones have allowed only three TDs this year and forced five turnovers.
We won’t spend more time parsing this one. This trap game is easy to escape. Just hammer the Under. Then, change the channel.
Best Bet: Under-48.5 (-109 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Ducks, Trojans Making Their Points
We move from trench warfare to aerial combat, featuring two teams quite familiar with putting up points, yards, and blood-pressure medication doses in defensive coordinators. It doesn’t matter the year, the coaches, or the venue. Watch this game, and you will be entertained.
Over their last 10 games, ranging from 2009 to last year, these two have averaged a combined 74.6 points, highlighted by the 113 points put up in Oregon’s 62-51 victory in 2012. The fewest points the Ducks and Trojans posted in this time frame was the 55 in Oregon’s 31-24 victory in 2020.
This year’s early returns indicate this trend is our friend. Last week, USC surrendered 460 yards and 35 points to Big Ten bottom-feeder Rutgers. Rutgers. The Trojans are giving up 5.7 yards per play (105th) and 12.9 yards per completion (114th). Oregon’s defense, meanwhile, hasn’t been all it quacked up to be, ranking middle-of-the-pack across the defensive board. The Ducks gave up 66 combined points to their two FBS opponents—neither of which will scare anyone: Boise State and Oklahoma State.
You get the idea.
The numbers here fluctuate between a lower total with more juice and the opposite. What doesn’t fluctuate here is how you want to bet it.
Best Bet: Over 61.5 (-117 at Caesars Sportsbook)
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