One of Saturday’s three marquee Kentucky Derby preps is running its last race at its designated track before that track heads into the history books. Another lost its marquee runner—who happened to be the Derby futures favorite—last week. And the third doesn’t exactly have its usual stellar roster of Derby A-listers.
But this year’s Derby field won’t fill itself. And the Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes, and Santa Anita Derby will perform their usual duties of fleshing out the Derby field for the first Saturday in May—history, misfortune, and off-years aside.
All three provide 100-50-25-15-10 Derby qualifying points to their top five finishers, so it’s not like the Derby picture won’t come into clearer focus. Even with commanding performances in last week’s Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby, won by Commandment and Renegade, respectively, dominating the futures wagering attention. Both horses used their standout trips to vault to the top of the final Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby Future Wager, where Renegade opens as the 4-1 favorite and Commandment the 6-1 second choice.
The impressive nature of both victories fills a vacuum left when Paladin exited the Derby trail. The futures favorite for most of this year, Paladin was scratched from the Bluegrass, the Triple Crown races, and all of the spring/summer 3-year-old events after suffering a condylar fracture in his right front ankle during a Saturday workout. The undefeated Gun Runner colt, last seen beating Chip Honcho by a half-length in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds in February, was the 6-1 futures favorite at Caesars and 8-1 at the Westgate Superbook.
Bluegrass Stakes
So with Paladin’s defection, who are the blueblood choices in the Bluegrass?
Start with 8-5 morning-line favorite Further Ado. The Gun Runner colt comes to Keeneland off a three-quarter-length loss to The Puma in the Tampa Bay Derby, a loss validated by The Puma’s narrow loss to Commandment in the Florida Derby and a loss that came after three months off. His stalking style and co-top Equibase Speed Figure with Reagan’s Honor (105) make him a worthy favorite. So does the fact that Further Ado bid adieu to his counterparts in a 1 1/16-mile maiden race on this track by 20 lengths last fall.
As for Reagan’s Honor (5-2), he comes in off the vapor trails of a nearly seven-length victory in a February 19 1 1/16-mile allowance at Fair Grounds, where he left his competitors in his wake with that 105 Equibase and 96 Beyer Speed Figure. The question here is how Reagan’s Honor handles the leap in class from allowances to a Grade 1. How that happens depends on who decides to run with this front-running speedster over 1 1/8 miles.
One of those candidates is likely Class President (3-1), who you’ll see pressing Reagan’s Honor. Courtesy of his nose-length victory over Arkansas Derby runner-up Silent Tactic in the March 1 Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, this Uncle Mo progeny already has a Derby spot locked up and hasn’t missed the board (3—2-1-0) in three starts. His second came in the Swale Stakes in January, sandwiched between that Rebel victory and a maiden-breaking debut by 3 ¼ lengths in December. With Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez aboard and Todd Pletcher calling the training shots, expect Class President to earn plenty of bettor’s votes
Wood Memorial
With the new Belmont Park opening in September, Saturday marks the final Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, closing the curtain on an event that sent 11 alums to the Churchill Downs winner’s circle between 1930 and 2000. That includes four of the 13 Triple Crown winners: Gallant Fox, Count Fleet, Assault, and Seattle Slew. Two other Triple Crown winners, Omaha and the iconic Secretariat, finished third in the Wood Memorial. But like Aqueduct, the Wood Memorial has seen better days. The last alum from New York’s marquee Derby prep to win the Run for the Roses was Funny Cide in 2003. That gelding was one of only two Wood Memorial alums to win the Derby this century, following Fuaichi Pegasus in 2000.
Your chief candidates to break that schnide are 9-5 morning-line favorite Iron Honor and Napoleon Soto (3-1). Undefeated in two starts at the Big A, Iron Honor already has 50 points, courtesy of his length victory in the Gotham Stakes in February. The pace-pressing style has served the Nyquist colt well, but will be tested by his far outside post and two-turn debut in the Wood Memorial.
The question with rail-sitter Napoleon Soto is which Napoleon Soto we’ll see Saturday. The one who dismantled the Champagne Stakes by 6 ½ lengths at the Big A last fall? Or the one who collapsed on the far turn and finished fifth in the February 28 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream—11 ¾ lengths behind Commandment? As another pacesetting horse in a race well-versed with that genus, expect jockey Paco Lopez to send Napoleon Soto out quickly.
Two others to watch are Talk to Me Jimmy (14-1) and Buetane (12-1). Talk to Me Jimmy may be the biggest value play of the weekend, considering he’s one of only two horses to win a 1 1/8-mile, two-turn race, which he did by blowing away the field in the February 6 Withers Stakes by 11 lengths. He also owns a 5 ½-length score in a November mile at Aqueduct. The Bob Baffert-trained Buetane was last seen finishing fourth in the Virginia Derby, following a third in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn. He’s best used underneath.
Santa Anita Derby
Normally, one of the marquee Derby preps of the spring, this year’s Santa Anita Derby is not only a handicapping question mark, but it’s a riddle as to which contender could make noise the first Saturday in May. Because every contender here comes with flaws.
As usual, the Santa Anita Derby conversation begins with two Baffert charges: Cherokee Nation and Potente. Should Cherokee Nation, the 5-2 second choice and railsitter, run to his considerable ceiling, this one is done and dusted. He destroyed a maiden special weight mile field on February 27 by 10 lengths. The effort came with not only a 100 Beyer—the second-highest clocking by a 3-year-old this year—but with a time (1:34.50) the Daily Racing Form said was the fastest dirt mile run at Santa Anita in 10 years.
That, however, came after the Not This Time colt finished a miserable fifth by nearly seven lengths in the Robert B. Lewis.
If that lack of consistency scares you, there’s Baffert’s Potente, the 2-1 morning-line favorite. Undefeated in two starts, including his head-victory over fellow Santa Anita Derby rival Robusta in the prep for this race—the San Felipe Stakes—the consistent Potente has the potential here. But to make any noise in the Derby, he’ll need a significant speed boost from his 94 Equibase totals in his two races.
Speaking of Robusta, the Doug O’Neill charge offers value at 8-1. He offered more value when he finished second to Potente at 67-1, odds courtesy of a sixth in the Lewis at 36-1. The second-place runner in that race—Intrepido (7-2)—won the Grade 1 American Pharoah last fall and should be on your tickets somewhere. And So Happy (7-2), the third-place runner in the San Felipe, did win the Grade 2 San Vicente by two lengths.
Again, the Santa Anita Derby is full of potential, but short on dynamism.
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