In the first week of the NFL 2024 season, over one-third of the entire field in Circa Casinos’ NFL Survivor pool were eliminated in Week 1. This is a huge deal considering the entry fee was $1,000 and the Circa Casino guaranteed $10 million to first place. This year’s popular contest attracted 14,206 entries.
Over 34 percent of the field in Circa Survivor, or 4,895 unfortunate souls, selected the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1. The Bengals were the biggest betting favorite on the board at -8 against the New England Patriots. Alas, the Patriots upset the Bengals with a 16-10 victory. In other Survivor or Eliminator pools, a large chunk of the field was instantly wiped out before the afternoon games even began.
Survival Selections
Survivor pools have a simple concept, but it’s more difficult than you realize because you can only select a team once. If you’re playing in a Survivor pool with office coworkers or friends for the first time, here’s some advice for beginners to help you win your pool this year.
- Avoid the Top Favorite. Look for the Second or Third Favorite.
My brother always names his Survivor entry “Week 1 KO” because he knows there’s probably a 50 percent chance he will get eliminated in the opening week. He can’t help himself because he will always pick the top favorite on the board. He selected the Bengals in his office pool this year, and as he jokingly predicted, he lived up to his entry’s moniker with a first week knockout.
This popular survivor strategy is straightforward: select the biggest favorite on the board. It makes sense to seek out the team with the best point-spread advantage. Typically, that team has the highest probability to win that week according to oddsmakers, which is why they have the largest point spread.
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Knowing the point spreads can be a valuable guide, but you should never blindly make your selection that way. Jumping on the bandwagon or making a consensus pick can be a costly decision. If there’s a huge upset, then you’re going to instantly bust, like we saw this year with the Bengals. Let’s not forget about the “any given Sunday” mantra, parity, and variance.
That’s why I like picking the second or third-best favorite on the board. You’re still backing a team with one of the highest winning probabilities while sidestepping a potential wipeout and letting the herd thin itself out.
In Week 1, the Seattle Seahawks closed as a -6 favorite against the Denver Broncos, and they were the second biggest favorite on the board behind the Bengals. Nearly 25 percent of the entries in Circa Survivor selected the Seahawks, and they all advanced when the Seahawks won by six points.
- Map Out a Path to Victory.
For Survivor beginners, your overall mentality is to stay alive and advance. That’s always your primary goal to make the best possible pick this particular week.
Should you save a specific team for a specific week? You will have to if you’re participating in a pool, like Circa Survivor, in which you must make a pick on Thanksgiving since there are only three games and six of those teams in play. But aside from a Thanksgiving pick, should you save a team for later in the season?
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It’s important to map out a path to victory so you get a sense of matchups, especially later in the season. Of course, it’s a long season lasting 18 weeks. Injuries drastically alter the outcome of games and alter the trajectory of a team. The goal is to anticipate potential trouble spots and avoid getting stuck where you’re in a tough position and must select a subpar team later in the season.
- Stay Flexible.
You can adhere to specific principles, but always remain flexible with your decision-making. Injuries will dictate the majority of your decisions, especially the deeper you go in Survivor. A sure thing in Week 10 becomes meaningless if that team loses their quarterback in Week 9.
- Pick Bad or Marginal Teams Early in the Season.
Anyone who won a Survivor pool will tell you they had no choice but to select a bad team to win their pool. It’s inevitably going to happen during an 18-week season. You want to have the right balance where you saved a few good teams in the last few weeks of the season. If you select a bad team early, it also gives you more flexibility later in the season and provides you with more options versus your opponents.
In Week 1 this year, several entries went that route when selecting the Minnesota Vikings or New Orleans Saints. Both teams were projected to have a losing record this season, but they had favorable matchups in the first game of the season. These entries got the Saints or Vikings out of the way in September and were able to save a stronger team like the Bills or Seahawks for later in the season.
- Pick a Team That’s Peaking Early, Save a Team That Will Ascend Later.
You see this happens every season when a team jumps out to a 4-0 start but then they miss the playoffs. Those are the types of teams you want to pick in September. Ride the early-season hot streak and select them before an inevitable collapse.
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Other teams start out slow and peak later in the season. Sometimes they have a new head coach, or new offensive coordinator that the players are slower to adjust. This group also includes teams with injured players or rookie quarterbacks. The Washington Commanders don’t look so good right now, but hopefully, they’re playing much better in November and December when you might have to pick them.
Bottom of the Barrell
- Fade the Bottom Feeders.
Another popular Survivor strategy is to fade the worst teams in the league. This method becomes hyper-popular when there’s an obviously awful team and you can select a subpar team against a winless squad while saving the better teams for later in the season.
The Carolina Panthers finished 2-15 in 2023. A popular Survivor strategy last year was selecting whoever the Panthers played every week. This also occurred in the 2020 season when the Jacksonville Jaguars went 1-15 and the New York Jets were 2-14. Numerous entries went deep by fading the Jags and Jets in 2020.
Oddsmakers anticipate the Panthers will be bad again this season. They entered 2024 with the second-lowest win total at BetMGM at 4.5 Over/Under. Second-year quarterback Bryce Young and their inept offensive line looked awful in Week 1, so you can expect Survivor entries will continue to fade the Panthers this season.
- Think Outside the Box. Avoid the Echo Chamber.
It’s difficult to avoid the power of group thinking, especially in sports. However, anyone bold enough to go against the grain or think outside the box will often get rewarded for their contrarian views. This philosophy goes beyond asserting that a specific team is overrated or overhyped, or another team is underrated or flying under the radar.
Break Down All Stats
It’s important to do your own research and develop your own methods to determine a team’s strength. Create your own power rankings and update them weekly. Do not forget that a point spread is not an actual gauge of one team’s strength over another. Rather, it’s a number generated by bookmakers who anticipate how the market will act based on the number they provide. This is why point spreads for popular teams are often skewed and that bias is baked into the line by bookmakers.
It’s important to know how the mainstream sports media is spinning a certain storyline, or which teams or players are their darlings or villains. Fans also get caught up in hyperbole from popular content creators like Bill Simmons or Pat McAfee.
These days, there’s no shortage of social media personalities who are never shy to share their thoughts on a team, game, or situation. It’s easy to get caught up in that echo chamber if you’re constantly watching ESPN, listening to gambling podcasts and local sports talk radio. Sometimes it’s better to tune out all that static and focus on the raw data. If you trust your research and believe in your models, it’s easier to avoid getting sucked into the echo chamber.
